Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - What Time's the Next Wash and Rinse? - Jobs Tomorrow

 

Just charts tonight. 

Let's see what the Jobs Report says tomorrow and how the market reacts.

Have a pleasant evening. 

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - I Refute It Thus - The Sophistry of the Fed's Monetary Policy

 

"The commercial world is very frequently put into confusion by the bankruptcy of merchants that assumed the splendour of wealth, only to obtain the privilege of trading with the stock of other men, and of contracting debts which nothing but lucky casualties could enable them to pay; till after having supported their appearance a while by tumultuary magnificence of boundless traffic, they sink at once, and drag down into poverty those whom their equipages had induced to trust them."

Samuel Johnson, Rambler #189, January 7, 1752

"Hot money seeks out the conscious mispricing of risk. Capital, in the form of both money and personal talent, increasingly flows into malinvestment and the gaming of markets.

The productive economy languishes, left wanting for the lack of creative resources and attention. The bubble rises to unsustainable valuations— and fails, and a nation's capital is consumed. The next five years are not about winning, but surviving."

Jesse, 5 August 2019

"After we came out of the church, we stood talking for some time together of Bishop Berkeley's ingenious sophistry to prove the nonexistence of matter, and that every thing in the universe is merely ideal. 

I observed, that though we are satisfied his doctrine is not true, it is impossible to refute it.

I never shall forget the alacrity with which Johnson answered, striking his foot with mighty force against a large stone, till he rebounded from it -- 'I refute it thus.'"

James Boswell, The Life of Samuel Johnson LL. D.

Stocks made another attempt to rally today on the worse than expected ADP Jobs number, but alas, they failed badly in the latter half of the day.

Gold and silver also had another rough day.

Crypto is a bubble asset, like beanie babies.

The Dollar declined slightly.

The larger than expected drawdown in the fossil fuels did not help.

Keep an eye out for the Jobs number on Friday.

This will be our third bubble and bust, all of them caused by the self-serving for the financial elite policy errors of the Fed, since 2000.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Fed's Private Bucket Shop - Desperately Seeking Equilibrium

 

"All conservatism is based upon the idea that if you leave things alone you leave them as they are.  But you do not. If you leave a thing alone you leave it twisting in a torrent of change."

G.K.Chesteron

"Inequality is a euphemism, a kind of shorthand, for all of the things that have gone to make the lives of the rich so much more delicious, year on year, for the last three decades. And also for the things that have made the lives of working people so wretched and so precarious in that same time.

Inequality is about the way in which speculators, and even criminals, get a helping hand from Uncle Sam, while the Vietnam Vet down the street from you loses his house."

Thomas Frank

"Let's face it, I fucked 'em all.  I mean, that's what I do.  That's why I went to beauty school.  I mean, they're always there and I-I just can't I-I, you know, I - I don't know what I'm apologizing for.  I go into that shop and they're so great lookin', you know, and I - I doing their hair and they feel great and they smell great.  Or, I could be out on the street, you know, and I could just stop at a stoplight or go into an elevator or - I - it's a beautiful girl - I - I don't know - I mean, that's it!  It makes my day.  I mean, it makes me feel like I'm gonna live forever."

George Roundy (Warren Beatty), Shampoo

That last quote could be well fitted to someone explaining why they went to work in our modern financial sector, especially investment banking or Wall Street.

Stocks swooned presumably because the JOLTS report, a child of the BLS, came in much higher than expected.

Here is what the Bureau of Labor Statistics had to say:

The number of job openings was little changed at 11.2 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.  Hires and total separations were little changed at 6.4 million and 5.9 million, respectively.  Within separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.4 million) were little changed.  This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.

You know what they say, BLS in, and BLS out.

Well, let's see how the markets react to the ADP report this week, as they wait intently for the Jobs report on Friday.

These types of government numbers are all right for trends, preferably broad ones, but these reactions to one time head line numbers is too often just a rationale for the Street to do what they wanted to do anyway.

Stocks dropped sharply, but managed to claw back a little back from the bottom.

Gold and silver especially were hit hard.

The Dollar chopped sideways, which was misreported by the closing bell crowd who assumed it was higher because gold was lower.

Let's see what the rest of the week brings.

I would say cloudy with a chance of a wash and rinse. 

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Unsteady As She Goes - Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday

 

"The failure of the central bankers and economists to 'manage the economy' is nothing new. One only has to look at the mainstream economic 'forecasts' in 1929 and 1930 to realize that not only is economics not a precise science, but too often economists are nothing more than mouthpieces for vested interests, and dabbling in politics and public policy in the guise of science.

A new school of economics will likely rise out of the coming financial collapse of the US, as it did in the 1930s. Perhaps this one will be more scientific, less subservient to private business interests and political objectives. 

But until that time it is good to realize that much of the discussion of macro-economics is nothing more than public policy and personal philosophy, with a strong dose of financial bias.  

For the sake of our country, we need to stop the Fed from increasing its opaque power to regulate and control our economy.  They have made a botched job of it, and show no signs of improvement beyond serving the needs of their special interests and the wealthy elite. 

Jesse, Economics in Disrepute as the Economy Tumbles, 9 July 2008


"How can a society which defines its first principle, the ultimate good, as greed be anything but what it is? Cruel, self-absorbed, shallow, unjust, delusional and imbalanced. Fear is the tool of a tyranny, and greed is a horse to be harnessed, not the measure of policy or an administrator of justice to run maximized, or even unchecked.

Why the lack of self-recrimination among the economists? Because they are no different than anyone else who failed to exercise their stewardship and basic human obligation to protect the innocent and to stand for justice, and uphold the standards of their profession. In this they are no different than politicians and lawyers and accountants and the mainstream media, although we foolishly expected more."

Jesse, In Defense of Economics, 12 January 2009

Nothing will change while the system continues to reward malfeasance and faisl to stop pervasive corruption by a self-serving elite.

This is the oft-cited credibility trap.

Stocks slumped this morning, but managed to come back to almost unchanged after Europe went home to bed.

Gold was mostly unchanged along with the Dollar.

Silver lost a little ground along with stocks.

The VIX was higher.

There will be a Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.

Have a pleasant evening.