14 October 2022

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Cruel Tutelage of History

 

"First, almost all panics and crashes are preceded by sustained periods of artificial growth, not based on improvements in productivity, but by a false expansion in the money system, aided and abetted by speculators and financiers.  Although they do not act in overt cooperation, yet there is an unmistakable collusion of purpose.

Second, almost all panics and crashes involves relatively small groups of people who seem to be at the heart of the matter, and are closely interlinked into small cartels of corrupted self-dealing involving the accumulation of enormous personal fortunes.  One is struck by the interconnections of the primary players in the Panic of 1907 in each others companies, banks, investments, and boards of directors. 

Lastly, there is always the over-extension of credit and excessive leverage.  Always.  This is how any Ponzi scheme grows.  In every case this is what precedes and precipitates the growth of a crisis and panic - the unreasonable overvaluation and expansion of assets precipitated by a relatively small number of men, interlinked loosely through business associations and personal financial gain.

If a general atmosphere of looting is fostered by the provocations of a few like-minded individuals, their subsequent actions need no coordination, other than the insufficient response of society to stop them before they gain sufficient momentum from their desires.  It is the apathy and weakness of the many that provides the stimulus and the encouragement for their plans."

Jesse, Lessons from the Panic of 1907, 14 March 2014

"His oratory moved people, and appealed to their hopes and dreams.  But his speeches malevolently twisted hope into some gnarled ghastly entities, and appealed to the latent, darkest prejudices of Germans.”

Richard M. Perloff, The Dynamics of Persuasion

"But it is obvious that the theme since the 1980's at least has been the will to power, the knocking down of laws and regulations, to allow the most powerful to do what they will, to take an even greater share of the riches of the world, to the disadvantage of the many. And my hypothesis is that the global reserve currency is a key plank in this agenda."

Jesse, Gold Holdings and the Evolution of Global Trade and Wealth, 29 January 2010

“Just as it was in the days of Noah, so will it be in the days of the Son of Man.   People were eating, drinking, marrying and being given away in marriage, up to the very day Noah entered the ark.   Then the flood came, and swept them all away.  And they said to him, 'Where will this happen, Lord?'  And He said to them, 'Where death is, there will be a gathering of vultures.'”

Luke 17:26-27, 37

Stocks tried to rally today, but slumped quickly, falling to fresh closing lows.

Wash and rinse.

The Dollar rallied in a flight risk from other currencies primarily, particularly Sterling, the Euro, and the Yen.

I have included a longer term Dollar chart showing how the DX index peaked at levels like this in the crash of 2001 and 1987.

VIX was flat, but remains elevated.

 Now that the latest wealth transfer bubble has burst, one would expect that the very wise and important will be calling for austerity, and for the common person to pay the price for this folly.

The wiseguys are already setting their agenda for Medicare, Veteran's Benefits, and Social Security.  

Same old, same old.

Stay on the high ground.  It's not so different this time, and you are special only in God's eyes.  

To the world you are things, fodder for their use.

To God, you are a beloved child.  And woe to them that harm you. 

It would have been better if they had never been born, when accounts are finally settled.

To win some, they lose all.

Have a pleasant weekend.

 


13 October 2022

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - You're a Daisy If You Do

 

"The whole town and all its inhabitants are quite drowned in carnival din, masks and confetti.   And on top of that the news of the Reichstag fire.   Dancing on a volcano."

Alban Berg, Letter from Berlin, September 1, 1933


“Berlin.   I used to love this old city.  But that was before it had caught sight of its own reflection and taken to wearing corsets laced so tight that it could hardly breathe.   I loved the easy, carefree philosophies, the cheap jazz, the vulgar cabarets and all of the other cultural excesses that characterized the Weimar years, and made Berlin seem like one of the most exciting cities in the world.”

Philip Kerr, Berlin Noir: March Violets


"Once more, let me remind you what fascism is.  I need not wear a brown shirt or a green shirt.  Fascism begins the moment a ruling class, fearing the people may use their political democracy to gain economic democracy, begins to destroy political democracy in order to retain its power of exploitation and special privilege."

Thomas Clement Douglas



The CPI numbers came in a little disjointed this morning, enabling a vigorous wash and rinse on Wall Street. 

If you just look at the end result it appears to be a proper risk on day.

The major indices set new lows early on.

And then rocketed back in what looks more like a relief rally than a capitulation bottom. 

Time will tell on that.

Gold and silver similarly fell down hard, but managed to find a footing and finish up fairly well on the day.

I took a ride up from the bottom, but exited those add-ons into the close.

This market still seems dangerously unbalanced.

The Dollar dropped as did the VIX.

Did all of this mean anything?

Only to reinforce the utterly cynical and shall underpinnings of the US financial markets.

We are all traders now.

I still like gold here, and to some extent silver which is less of a safe haven.

But this market is still one exogenous event away from a proper meltdown. 

CPI is really not exogenous since it was probably leaked and spun all over the place.

It is just a means, as most things become in a cynically corrupt institution.

Have a pleasant evening. 



12 October 2022

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Audacious

 

"While everyone enjoys an economic party the long-term costs of a bubble to the economy and society are potentially great.   They include a reduction in the long-term saving rate, a seemingly random distribution of wealth, and the diversion of financial human capital into the acquisition of wealth."

Larry Lindsey, Federal Reserve Governor, FOMC Minutes, September 24, 1996

"The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States...  Recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform."

Simon Johnson, The Quiet Coup, May 2009

I recognize that there is a stock market bubble problem at this point, and I agree with Governor Lindsey that this is a problem that we should keep an eye on...  We do have the possibility of raising major concerns by increasing margin requirements.  I guarantee that if you want to get rid of the bubble, whatever it is, that will do it.”

Alan Greenspan,  Federal Reserve Chairman,  FOMC Minutes, September 24, 1996

“When you live under such an oligarchy, there is always some crisis or the other that takes priority over boring stuff such as healthcare and pollution.  If the nation is facing external invasion or diabolical subversion, who has the time to worry about overcrowded hospitals and polluted rivers?   By manufacturing a never-ending stream of crises, a corrupt oligarchy can prolong its rule indefinitely.”

Yuval Noah Harari

"Confusing a targeted audience is one of the necessary ingredients for effective mind control.  The eternal demagogue will arise anew.  He will accuse others of conspiracy in order to prove his own importance.  He will try to intimidate those who are neither so iron-fisted nor so hotheaded as he, and temporarily he will drag some people into the web of his delusions.  With his emotionalism and suspicion, he will shatter the trust of citizens in one another."

Joost Meerloo M.D., The Rape of the Mind, 2015

Stocks attempted to rally, again.

And then fell again, testing the prior low.

Gold was up slightly while silver fell a bit with the recessionary fears driving stocks.

Inflation and Fed concerns are driving markets, obviously.

The PPI came in a little hot this morning.

CPI tomorrow.

I am holding a little short term gold position but overall I will stick to the high ground.

Have a pleasant evening.



11 October 2022

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - It Is a Fraud to Conceal a Fraud

 

"Truth is not only violated by falsehood; it may be equally outraged by silence."

Henri-Frederic Amiel

“The essence of a speculative bubble is a sort of feedback, from price increases, to increased investor enthusiasm, to increased demand, and hence further price increases. Major speculative bubbles, as I argued in Irrational Exuberance, are always supported by some superficially plausible popular theory that justifies them, and that is widely viewed as having sanction from some authority figures. These may be called new-era theories.”

Robert Shiller

"Greed is not good. Greed is a disease, an aberration of simple honest ambition and necessary provision taken to excess. This simple distinction may be lost on a people no longer able to distinguish between virtue and sin, honor and expediency, appetite and gluttony, the means and the ends. Every great religion, every school of philosophy has cautioned throughout history on the perils of unbridled and unregulated greed.

And yet this generation would make a god of it, although they may not understand, or care, what it is that they are doing, and whom it is they serve. And yet they will be held to account for their willfulness, foolishness, and casual disregard for others.

Greed, often in company with hubris and fear, is a handmaiden of the corrupting influence of power and triumph of the will. Greed is contagious, and attacks the very contentment of society at its heart, turning it towards oligarchy and oppression."

Jesse, Greed Is Not Good, 19 December 2010

"Greed is a bottomless pit which exhausts the person in an endless effort to satisfy the need without ever reaching satisfaction."

Erich Fromm


Stocks slumped lower, once again today, after yet another attempt to move higher.

The Dollr and the VIX rose.

Gold and silver wallowed a bit.

Inflation data coming out later this week.

Have a pleasant evening.