03 April 2023

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Implications of the Incarnation - Non-Farm Payrolls on Good Friday

 

“Myth seeks the ascent of man to spirit; the Word of God seeks descent into flesh and blood.  Myth wants power; revelation reveals the true power of God in the most extreme powerlessness.  Myth wants knowledge; the Word of God asks for constant faith and, only within that faith, a growing, reverent understanding.  The revelation of God’s Word is gentle patience amidst the intractable tensions of life.

So-called 'gnosis’ was an enormous temptation in the early Christian Church.  What made it so insidious was the fact that the Gnostics very often did not want to leave the Church.   Instead, they claimed to be offering a superior and more authentic exposition of Holy Scripture, though, of course, this was only for the ‘superior souls’.  It inevitably encouraged not only an excited craving for higher initiation, but also an almost unbounded arrogance in those who had moved from mere ‘faith’ to real, enlightened ‘knowledge’.

Error never shows itself in its naked reality, in order not to be discovered.  On the contrary, it dresses elegantly, so that the unwary may be led to believe that it is more truthful than truth itself.”

Irenaeus of Lyons, edited by Hans Urs von Balthasar, The Scandal of The Incarnation

“Odor of blood when Christ was slain
Made all Platonic tolerance vain."

William Butler Yeats, Two Songs from a Play

"Only the humble believe in Him and rejoice that God is so free and so marvelous that He does wonders where people despair, that He takes what is little and lowly and makes it marvelous. And that is the wonder of all wonders, that God loves the lowly.

In the Incarnation the whole human race recovers the dignity of the image of God.   Thereafter, any attack, even on the least of men, is an attack on Christ, who took on the form of man, and in his own Person restored the image of God in all.  Through our relationship with the Incarnation, we recover our true humanity, and at the same time are delivered from that perverse individualism which is the consequence of sin, and recover our solidarity with all mankind."

Dietrich Bonhoeffer


Repentance - Forgiveness - Thankfulness

These are gifts of the cross, illuminated by the resurrection, the greatest gifts that we may ever hope to receive. And they have been given freely, to all those who will accept them.

OPEC+ surprised the markets with a million barrels per day production cut, which put a spark under the energy sector this morning.

But the ISM Manufacturing Numbers came in weaker than expected at 10AM, so stocks took a hit from the signs of continued slowing in the real economy.

Expectations are that earnings for the first quarter are going to be dismal for the real economy.

As opposed to the unnatural pricing power of monopolies and cartels like Oil, Big Pharma and eggs.  lol.

The Dollar continued to slide.

VIX was elevated but fell again as stocks recovered, and the Wall Street oligarchs took solace in their relative invincibility.

Gold and silver managed to post some gains.

There will be a Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.

This will be interesting because the stock market in the US will be closed that day for Good Friday.

It's always something.

Gold is pushing up against a key resistance level as you can see on the chart.

Have a pleasant evening.



31 March 2023

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Behold the Man - On to Easter Week and the Second Quarter

 

"On the following day John the Baptist saw Jesus coming towards him and said, 'Behold the lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world.'"

John 1:29

"Without a doubt, at the center of the New Testament there stands the Cross, which receives its interpretation from the Resurrection."

Hans Urs von Balthasar

"Then Simeon blessed them and said to Mary his mother: 'This child is destined for the fall and rise of many, and to be a sign that will be opposed,  so that the secret thoughts of men will be revealed.  And a sword of sorrow shall pierce your heart.'"

Luke 2:34-35

"Those among the rich who are not, in the rigorous sense, damned, can understand poverty, because they are poor themselves, after a fashion; but they cannot understand destitution.  Capable of giving alms, perhaps, but incapable of stripping themselves bare, they will be moved, to the sound of beautiful music, at Jesus’s sufferings, but His Cross, the reality of His Cross, will horrify them.  They want it all out of gold, bathed in light, costly and of little weight; pleasant to see, hanging from a woman’s beautiful throat."

Léon Bloy

"Let us feel what we really are- sinners attempting great things.  Let us simply obey God’s will, whatever may come. He can turn all things to our eternal good.  Easter day is preceded by the forty days of Lent, to show us that they only who sow in tears shall reap in joy.

The more we do, the more shall we trust in Christ; and that surely is no morose doctrine, that leads us to soothe our selfish restlessness, and forget our fears, in the vision of the Incarnate Son of God.

May the Lord support us all the day long, till the shades lengthen, and the evening comes, and the busy world is hushed, and the fever of life is over, and our work is done.  Then in His mercy may He give us safe lodging, and a holy rest, and peace at last.”

John Henry Newman


I am reminded of a Palm Sunday, many years ago, in the shadow of the Matterhorn in Zermatt.

We had taken a weekend trip from Geneva with some friends, stopping at Interlaken and Lucerne and the mountaintop, Schilthorn, arriving late on a Saturday night in Zermatt by the cog railway.

It was snowing from a low and heavy cloud cover.  Everything was closed in. There were no cars in town, just horse drawn sleighs with bells on.  There were the sounds of German drinking songs from the influx of weekend skiers.

We had no reservations but found a room on the top floor in a modest place called the Hotel Alpina.

The next morning was very clear and crisp, very cold and still. The sun was rising, lighting up the peak of the mountain while we were deep in shadows.

We were wakened by church bells, and looking out the window we saw people leaving a little stone church carrying pine boughs in their hands in lieu of palm branches.  

Stocks rallied today for the end of quarter. 

The Dollar rallied and gold fell a bit.  It is at some fairly familiar resistance.

Silver pushed higher in sympathy with equities as it is often wont to do.

VIX fell again.

Let's see what next week brings.

Have a pleasant weekend.


30 March 2023

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Lipstick on a Pig - End of First Quarter

 

"Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose."

Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr, Les Guêpes, 1849

“Those entrapped by the herd instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape the flood. For these few gold has been the asset of last resort.”

Antony C. Sutton

"A fire broke out backstage in a theatre. The clown came out to warn the public; they thought it was a joke and applauded. He repeated it; the acclaim was even greater.

I think that's just how the world will come to an end: to general applause from those who believe it's just a joke.”

Søren Kierkegaard

"Jim, lad, there be consequences an' then there be consequences. Devil take 'em all, says I, and pass aft the rum."

Robert Louis Stevenson, Treasure Island

 

And so we have the traditional end of the first quarter 'paint job' where certain aspects of the tape and pumped up or depressed to enhance the quarterly results of the denizens of Wall Street. 

Painting the tape or putting lipstick on a pig.  

It's what they do.

The Dollar dropped.

Gold and silver rallied.

The VIX continued to drift lower.

Bloomberg had a banner announcing a new bull market in tech for a good part of the morning. 

Tomorrow might be a quiet day if equity valuations have reached their optimal targets.

Or not.   It's hard to predict these she short term wiggles in the grift.

Have a pleasant evening.

 


29 March 2023

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Hymn of the Cherubim - But If Not

 

"O Nebuchadnezzar, we do not need to defend ourselves before you in this matter. If we are thrown into the blazing furnace, the God we serve is able to save us from it, and he will rescue us from your hand.  But if not, even if he does not preserve us, we want you to know, O king, that we will not serve your gods or worship the images you have set up and commanded us to worship."

Daniel 3:16-18

"Walk with him this morning and believe in him and do what is right and he'll be with you even until the consummation of the ages.  Wherever you are going this morning, tell the world that you're going with truth.  You're going with justice, you're going with goodness, and you will have an eternal companionship.  And the world will look at you and they won't understand you, for your fiery furnace will be around you, but you'll go on anyhow.

But if not, I will not bow, and God grant that we will never bow before the gods of evil."

Martin Luther King, But If Not, November, 1967

"'We who live in the glory of heaven have no idea what it is like to live in darkness.  Every day of our lives we hear His voice and the heavenly music like rushing waters, but for them— there is so much darkness, noise and confusion on the earth.  Only a few who are humble, wise and still in their hearts hear His voice.  But now pay attention.  You are about to see something wonderful.'

And then, as the earth continued to rotate, many little lights spread out. Some would only light up briefly and then go off again. But most continued to burn evenly. As they looked further, they saw that a glowing light had spread over many parts of the earth.

'The glowing lights are His followers that He left behind; men and women who, with His help, continue to spread the light on the earth.  And now many little lights are beginning to shine all over the world.'"

J. B. Phillips, Ansichten eines Engels

"Behind the concrete, the visible events, behind all objective, logical considerations, we find the irrational element: The struggle against the demon, against the servants of the Antichrist. Everywhere and always demonic powers lurk in the dark, waiting for the moment when man is weak; when of his own volition he leaves his place in Creation, as founded for him by God in freedom; when he yields to the force of evil, he separates himself from the powers of a higher order; and after voluntarily taking the first step, he is driven on to the next and the next at a furiously accelerating rate.

Everywhere, and at times of greatest trials, men have appeared, prophets and saints who cherished their freedom, who preached the One God and who with His help brought the people to a reversal of their downward course. Man is free, to be sure, but without the true God he is defenseless against the principle of evil. He is a like rudderless ship, at the mercy of the storm, an infant without his mother, a cloud dissolving into thin air."

The White Rose, Fourth Leaflet, Munich 1942

"For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities and powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places."

Ephesians 6:12

Stocks were in risk on rally mode.

The VIX fell.

Gold declined.  Silver held its own with equities.

The Dollar chopped sideways.

I think we have a rinse coming in equities.  Maybe not tomorrow but soon.

This is the way—  of Wall Street

Have a pleasant evening.