Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Uncle Thug and the Bridegrooms of Death

 

"Where are the princes of this world, and those who lorded it over the creatures of the earth?  Those who made sport of the birds of the air, and hoarded up riches in which they trusted, and for whom there is no limit to their greed, those who schemed to get wealth, and were always anxious about their possessions.  But now there is no trace left of them.  They have vanished down into the bowels of the earth, and others have risen to take their place."

Baruch 3:16-19

"Rome has grown so much from its humble beginnings that it is now overwhelmed by its greatness."

Titus Livius, Praefatio, Ab Urbe Condita

“Foolishness is a more dangerous enemy of the good than malice. Against such foolishness we are defenseless. Neither protests nor the use of force accomplish anything here; reasons fall on deaf ears; facts that contradict one’s prejudgment simply need not be believed – in such moments the foolish person even becomes critical – and when facts are irrefutable they are just pushed aside as inconsequential, as incidental.

In all this the foolish person, in contrast to the malicious one, is utterly self satisfied and, being easily irritated, becomes dangerous by going on the attack. For that reason, greater caution is called for when dealing with a foolish person than with a malicious one. Never again will we try to persuade the foolish person with reasons, for it is senseless and dangerous.”

Dietrich Bonhoeffer, Prisoner for God: Letters and Papers from Prison, 1944

"Where does the truth lie? Should one go off and build a little house with flowers outside the windows and a garden outside the door and extol and thank God and turn one’s back on the world and its filth? Isn’t seclusion a form of treachery, of desertion? I am weak and small, but I want to do what is right."

Hans Scholl, Letters and Diaries, 1941

"Where are the leaders? Has our political process become so compromised by powerful interest groups and the threat of character assassination that even the best among us will not dare to speak honestly about the solutions that might bring us back to common sense and fundamental fairness?"

Senator Jim Webb, A Time to Fight, 2008

"Now why don't you just take it easy, Group Captain, and please make me a drink of grain alcohol and rainwater, and help yourself to whatever you'd like."

General Jack D. Ripper (Sterling Hayden), Dr. Strangelove


The Non-Farm Payrolls report came in much 'hotter' than expected this morning.

And that triggered a reaction in the market with regard to the timing and size of interest rate cuts by the Fed this year.

And so stocks fell, rather sharply, and put in another lower low to go with its recent trend of lower highs and lower lows.

Not constructive for the bull market narrative in equities.

Gold and silver rallied sharply higher along with the US Dollar.

I'm not quite sure how to explain that one, except that together with the rising VIX it looked like a 'flight to safety' provoked by uncertainty of what Big Daddy Fed may do next.

We will have a minor stock option expiration next Friday.

This market is one accident away from a meltdown.

And Uncle Thug and his bridegrooms of death are driving recklessly, drunk with power.

The mispricing of risks is going to have its effect.

Have a pleasant weekend.

What Then Would You Do?

 

"If today you hear his voice, harden not your hearts."

 Hebrews 3:15

"Jesus returned to Galilee in the power of the Spirit, and news about Him spread throughout the region. He began teaching in their synagogues and was praised by all.  And He came to Nazareth, where He had been brought up.  As was His custom on the Sabbath, He entered the synagogue and stood up to read. And the scroll of the prophet Isaiah was handed to Him.  He unrolled it, and found the place where it was written,

'The Spirit of the Lord is upon Me,
   Because He anointed Me to preach the good news to the poor.
He has sent Me to proclaim liberty to the captives,
   And recovery of sight to the blind,
To set free those who are oppressed,
   To proclaim the year acceptable to the Lord.'

He closed the book, gave it back to the attendant, and sat down.  The eyes of everyone in the synagogue were fixed on Him.  And He said, 'Today, this Scripture has been fulfilled in your hearing.'

When they heard these words, the people were roused to fury.  They rose up, drove him out of the town, and led him to the top of the hill upon which their town was built, intending to hurl him off the cliff.”

 Luke 4:14-21, 28-29

"With tears in my eyes I tell you now that some may be lost, forever. Their pride and their desires are the gods that they worship. They boast with pride about things of which they should be ashamed. They think only about their privilege and the advantages of this world."

Phillipians 3:19-20


If the Lord returned today, but did not return in the way in which he is expected, what would we do?

Accept him?  Bless his words?

Or reject and abuse him, because he did not come and give them what they want?

And whom then do they serve?

So do not judge others harshly, now or who have come before, to hide and excuse our own faithlessness.

What then would you do?

You are doing it, right now.

“Let all my nothingness be drowned in the ocean of your mercy.”

Maria Faustyna Kowalska

Repentance - Forgiveness - Thankfulness

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - In a Hall of Mirrors

 

"Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day; but a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period, and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate and systematical plan of reducing us to slavery."

Thomas Jefferson, 1774

"To some degree this is a battle between the politicians and the markets.  But I am firmly resolved — and I think all of my colleagues are too — to win this battle.  The fact that hedge funds are not regulated is a scandal. Britain has blocked previous efforts to do this.  First the banks failed, forcing states to carry out rescue operations.  They plunged the global economy over the precipice and we had to launch recovery packages, which increased our debts, and now they are speculating against these debts.  That is very treacherous.  Governments must regain supremacy. It is a fight against the markets and I am determined to win this fight."

Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, Berlin, 6 May 2010

"The suspicions that the system is rigged in favor of the largest banks and their elites, so they play by their own set of rules to the disfavor of the taxpayers who funded their bailout, are true.  It really happened. These suspicions are valid.   Incentives are baked into the system to take advantage of it for short-term profit.  The incentives are to cheat, and cheating is profitable because there are no consequences.

It’s implicit in so much of the regulatory structure that if you don’t make too many waves there will be a job for you elsewhere.  So we have to limit those job opportunities and develop a more professional path for regulators as a career.  So much of what’s wrong with Dodd-Frank is it trusts the regulators to be completely immune to the corrupting influences of the banks. That’s so unrealistic. Congress has to take a meat cleaver to these banks and not trust regulators to do the job with a scalpel.”

Gretchen Morgensen, Neil Barofsky: Into the Bailout Buzzsaw, NY Times, July 21, 2012

"At first, the love of money, and then that of power began to prevail, and these became, as it were, the sources of every evil. For avarice subverted honesty, integrity and other honorable principles and, in their stead, inculcated pride, inhumanity, contempt of religion and general venality. These vices first advanced but slowly, and were sometimes restrained by correction; but afterward, when their infection had spread like a pestilence, the state was entirely changed, and the government, from being the most equitable and praiseworthy, became the most rapacious and insupportable."

Sallust, Conspiracy of Cataline

"Dallas Fed President, Robert Kaplan, wasn’t just trading like an aggressive hedge fund kingpin in 2020, he’s been doing the same thing for five years at the Dallas Fed while simultaneously having access to non-public, market moving information from the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting FOMC meetings and other confidential communications.

In addition to speculating in stock index futures, Kaplan has also made tens of millions of dollars in purchases and sales of a litany of individual stocks over the last five years, including Big Tech and fossil fuel companies, rather than adhering to the customary ethical standard by Fed officials of employing a buy and hold position in diversified mutual funds. In 2020, the vast majority of Kaplan’s individual stock trades were also for 'over $1 million.'

The role of the brokerage firm that executed these trades is a very serious matter and every American should be demanding that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell release this information immediately.  In this case, knowing your customer should have meant frantically calling your compliance department when an officer of the U.S. central bank, who sits on some of the most sensitive, non-public market intelligence in the world, instructs you to make 'over $1 million' trades, multiple times, in S&P 500 futures contracts. The S&P 500 futures trade request by Kaplan should have convened an immediate, all-hands-on-deck meeting of the entire compliance department of the brokerage firm.

Instead, the trading has gone on unimpeded for more than five years, according to Kaplan’s financial disclosures. Clients whose jobs involve having access to confidential market information, like an investment banker or a central banker, would have their trades closely monitored in a properly functioning compliance department. This compliance department was clearly not functioning and the American public deserves to know why.”

Martens, Trading Like a Hedge Fund Kingpin for Five Years, Wall Street On Parade, September 27, 2021

"The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustainable recovery."

Jesse, May 2009


The Dollar rallied this morning early, and managed to hold on to the 109 handle.

VIX wallowed near its moving averages.

Stocks slumped badly, but did not set a lower low, recovering quite a bit into the close.

Gold and silver rallied.  Gold has run up to the key resistance.

US markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of the funeral of Jimmy Carter.

The rest of the world will have to try and carry on without Wall Street.

As you know I try to suspend judgement on a new administration for the first 100 days.

I am doing the same thing again.

Well, let's see how this all unfolds.

I suspect that 2025 is going to be a year of historic, shocking changes.

See you on Friday.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Dark Myths of Messianic Empires

 

"Day by day the money-masters of America become more aware of their danger, they draw together, they grow more class-conscious, more aggressive. The war has taught them the possibilities of propaganda ; it has accustomed them to the idea of enormous campaigns which sway the minds of millions and make them pliable to any purpose.

American political corruption was the buying up of legislatures and assemblies to keep them from doing the people's will and protecting the people's interests; it was the exploiter entrenching himself in power, it was financial autocracy undermining and destroying political democracy."

Upton Sinclair, The Brass Check, 1919.

"Congressmen Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Brian Mast (R-Fla.) introduced H.R. 23, the Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act, which would 'impose sanctions with respect to the International Criminal Court engaged in any effort to investigate, arrest, detain, or prosecute any protected person of the United States and its allies.'  

The bill, which was fast-tracked by the 119th House rules package, was initially approved last June by the Republican-controlled lower chamber with the support of 42 Democratic lawmakers.  In November, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masri."

Brett Wilkins, Groups Urge Congress, Trump to Reconsider Sanctions on ICC, Common Dreams, January 6, 2025

“The mainstream media must be considered part of the deep state.  Its assumptions, biases, priorities, and defaults are very much a function of the interests of a tiny elite of corporate wealth whose interests the media necessarily serves regardless of this or that outlet’s position along the ever-narrowing spectrum of allowable political perspective."

Aaron Good, American Exception: Empire and the Deep State, June 2022

"The more power a government has the more it can act arbitrarily according to the whims and desires of the elite, and the more it will make war on others and murder its foreign and domestic subjects."

R. J. Rummel, Death by Government: A History of Mass Murder and Genocide Since 1900

"A poor man is ever at a disadvantage in matters of public concern. When he rises to speak, or writes a letter to his superiors, they ask: Who is this fellow that offers advice?  And when it is known that he is without coin they spit their hands at him, and use his letters in the cooks' fires.  But if it be a man of wealth who would speak, or write, or denounce, even though he have the brain of a yearling dromedary, or a spine as crooked and unseemly, the whole city listens to his words and declares them wise."

Li Hongzhang, as quoted in The Cry for Justice edited by Upton Sinclair, 1915

"People with advantages are loathe to believe that they just happen to be people with advantages. They come readily to define themselves as inherently worthy of what they possess; they come to believe themselves 'naturally' elite; and, in fact, to imagine their possessions and their privileges as natural extensions of their own elite selves. The idea of the elite as composed of men and women having a finer moral character is an ideology of the elite.”

C. Wright Mills, The Power Elite

"The world is being inundated by the brazen conviction that power can do anything, and justice nothing."

Aleksandr Isayevich Solzhenitsyn, Nobel Lecture for Literature, 1970


Stocks sold off today for the same 'technical' reasons that they rallied yesterday. 

People feel the need to look for 'reasons' why the market do something on a given day.

Sometimes there is a reason, some key piece of data or an exogenous event.

Often enough the manner that stocks react does not seem to be customary to a particular piece of data.

I don't think I can stress enough that while markets tend to be more (relatively speaking) rational in the long run, in the short run they are a gamblers' game, a game of liar's poker.

If you bear that in mind, and understand the games these jokers play, you might do a little better.  

And keep in mind that the big players who are buying 'order flow' know in the aggregate where the specs and mid-tier guys are leaning and to what extent. 

Its a game of timing and information.

And the smaller players watch what the big guys are doing, in the pits and on the squawk boxes.

You don't have to believe it.  But that's how it is, and even moreso today than it was when I started out when some manner of regulation prevailed.  Now its more like the 1920s.

Gold and silver rallied, as did the Dollar.

Gold is coiling in a triangle within the larger triangle.  At some point it is going to run. 

It was a little surprising that silver decoupled from tech stocks, but that speaks to the nature of today's action.

Bitcoin did follow its NDX correlation and gave up the 100K handle and then some.

VIX popped up off its moving averages.  See what I mean?

As a reminder US markets will be closed on January 9 for the observance of Jimmy Carter's funeral.

Carter did not get along at all with the 'deep state.'  And they played him hard and dirty for it. 

The masks of the respected ujnspeakable seem to have dropped off a little in the last ten years or so.

And the Non-Farm Payroll report drops first thing on /Friday morning.

Stack your decks carefully then on Wednesday afternoon.

Have a pleasant evening.