Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Power, Madness, and Murder

 

"The inability to identify with others was unquestionably the most important psychological condition for the fact that something like Auschwitz could have occurred in the midst of more or less civilised and innocent people. The silence under the terror was only its consequence. The coldness of the societal mindset, the isolated competitor, was the precondition, as indifference to the fate of others, for the fact that only very few people reacted. The torturers know this, and they put it to test ever anew.

One must come to know the mechanisms that render people capable of such deeds, must reveal these mechanisms to them, and strive, by awakening a general awareness of those mechanisms, to prevent people from becoming so again.

It is not the victims who are guilty, not even in the sophistic and caricatured sense in which still today many like to construe it.  Only those who unreflectingly vented their hate and aggression upon them are guilty.  One must labor against this lack of reflection, must dissuade people from striking outward without reflecting upon themselves.  The only education that has any sense at all is an education toward critical self-reflection."

Theodor Adorno, Education After Auschwitz, 18 April 1966

"Foolishness is a more dangerous enemy of the good than malice.  One may protest against evil; it can be exposed and, if need be, prevented by use of force.  Evil always carries within itself the germ of its own downfall in that it leaves behind in human beings at least a sense of unease.

Against such foolishness we are defenseless.  Neither protests nor the use of force accomplish anything here; reasons fall on deaf ears; facts that contradict one’s prejudgment simply need not be believed — in such moments the foolish person even becomes critical — and when facts are irrefutable, they are just pushed aside as inconsequential, as incidental.  In all this the foolish person, in contrast to the malicious one, is utterly self-satisfied and, being easily irritated, becomes dangerous by going on the attack.

For that reason, greater caution is called for dealing with a foolish person than with a malicious one.  Never again will we try to persuade the foolish person with reason, for it is senseless and dangerous.  If we want to know how to get the better of foolishness, we must seek to understand its nature.  This much is certain, that it is in essence not an intellectual defect but a human one.  There are human beings who are of remarkably agile intellect yet foolish, and others who are intellectually quite dull yet anything but foolish. 

Upon closer observation, it becomes apparent that every strong upsurge of power in the public sphere, be it of a political or of a religious nature, infects a large part of humanity with foolishness.  It would even seem that this is virtually a sociological-psychological law.  The power of the one needs the foolishness of the other.

The fact that the foolish person is often stubborn must not blind us to the fact that he is not independent. In conversation with him, one virtually feels that one is dealing not at all with a person, but with slogans, catchwords and the like that have taken possession of him.  He is under a spell, blinded, misused, and abused in his very being. Having thus become a mindless tool, the foolish person will also be capable of any evil and at the same time incapable of seeing that it is evil. This is where the danger of diabolical misuse lurks, for it is this that can once and for all destroy human beings.

Yet at this very point it becomes quite clear that only an act of liberation, not instruction, can overcome foolishness.  Here we must come to terms with the fact that in most cases a genuine internal liberation becomes possible only when external liberation has preceded it.  Until then we must abandon all attempts to convince the foolish person. The word of the Bible that the fear of God is the beginning of wisdom declares that the internal liberation of human beings to live the responsible life before God is the only genuine way to overcome foolishness.

But these thoughts about foolishness also offer consolation in that they utterly forbid us to consider the majority of people to be foolish in every circumstance.  It really will depend on whether those in power expect more from people’s foolishness than from their inner independence and wisdom."

Dietrich Bonhoeffer, Letters and Papers from Prison, executed on April 9, 1945

“Each day we are becoming a creature of splendid glory, or one of unthinkable horror.”

C. S. Lewis


They don't wish to hear it. 

Of course they don't! 

No one caught up in the madness of evil ever wants to hear it.

All that can be said is— hell awaits.

And they will not believe it, and never see it coming. 

Winning....

Stocks managed to rally back today after the Non-Farm Payrolls decline of Friday.

Smells like a wash and rinse, but the timing is not yet clear.

Gold broke out sharply, fueled by signs and rumors of a short squeeze in London.

Silver advanced but was pressed back into the close for only a modest gain.

VIX declined.  

Mispricing risk and lying about it is one of the great talents of our politicians and financiers.

The lying is becoming so fashionable that nearly all of the servants to power, the demimonde of humanity, are doing it.

When the fruits of their actions start falling to earth it is going to be an avalanche of consequences.

But we don't believe it!

Of course you don't.   

The storm gathers. 

Have a pleasant evening.

 

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Harshness and Hostility to Angels

 

"When unequal justice prevails, the party that does not need to follow the law has a distinct competitive advantage. A corporation that knowingly breaks the law will find ways to profit through illegal means that are not available to competitors. As a consequence, the competitive playing field is biased toward the company that does not need to follow the rules.

The net result of unequal justice is likely to be the destruction of the overall wealth of our society. I don’t mean the wealth of individuals; I mean the total wealth of goods and services that are the benefits of healthy competition. To the extent that unequal justice prevails, entities that are exempt from the laws will, in all likelihood, be more profitable than law abiding competitors. Then they use their profits to further weaken competitors by using their illegal profits to further build their businesses at the expense of competitors.

All of this business building activity is based on a foundation of sand, and ultimately the entire industry — or even the larger economy — becomes distorted. The 'rogue' company gains power, changes markets, and destroys direct and indirect competitors because it is playing by different rules."

Bruce Judson, For Capitalism to Survive, Crime Must Not Pay, April 12, 2012

“I will punish the world for its evil and the wicked for their sin. I will crush the arrogance of the proud and humble the pride of the mighty."

Isaiah 13:11

"The message of the gospel is simple, clear, and straightforward.  We are not things meant for the use and pleasure of another.  We are all the children of God, made for joy, with all the life and fulfillment that it brings.  So we are to love our neighbor as ourselves, in harmony with the love of God, whom we love above all in all.

But the words of life that have been planted in our hearts are too often suffocated by the worries of the world or seduced by wealth, and twisted into barrenness with pride.  So we make the gospel disputatious and complex, because the evil in us loves to hide the light with complexity.  It is a way to blind our eyes and harden our hearts against the two great commandments.  A hollow, lifeless pride in the superiority of our form of worship and a love of ritual observance more than the spirit that it represents and calls forth is the leaven of the Pharisees."

Jesse, Pride and Death, 4 April 2023

"Let your love for each other grow. And do not fail to show hospitality to strangers, for by this some have unknowingly shown kindness to angels."

Hebrews 13:1-2

"Hate what is evil, and hold on to what is good.  Love one another with with the love of a family.   Be an example in showing respect to others.  Do not be neglectful in your service, but enthusiastic in spirit, as a servant of the Lord.  Rejoice in hope; be patient in suffering, and faithful in prayer.   Contribute to the needs of the holy ones, and provide hospitality to strangers.

Bless those who provoke you.  Pray for them, and do not curse them.   Rejoice with those who rejoice; weep with those who weep.  Live in harmony with one another.  Do not be arrogant, but associate with the humble.   Do not claim to be wiser than you are.   Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but have a regard for what is good in the sight of all.  If it is possible, as best as you can, live peaceably with all.  Friends, never avenge yourselves, but leave room for the judgement of God, for it is written, 'Vengeance is mine, and I will do justice, says the Lord.'”

Romans 12:9-19

 

The Non-Farm Payrolls report came in on the light side but was otherwise balanced overall.

And after an initial rally, stocks fell and then continued on well into the red.

Gold and silver rallied but were pushed back. 

Silver was punched in the face with heavy selling around the 33 level and below.

As you may have heard London is having difficulty fulfilling customers orders for physical gold bullion.  They are delaying delivery times by four to eight weeks.  Borrow rates to get bullion from other sources like the custodians of ETFs have tripled overnight.

It is not a literal default.  But is shows signs of smoke, worth watching in any market where a dwindling supply is backing a 100x larger basket of potential short term demand.

That could be the monetary boom heard around the world.

VIX ticked up a  bit.

The Dollar took back the 108 handle.

What are we to make of this?

I am not sure where we are going with all this.  But I do think that the risk levels are elevated and badly mispriced.

Donny is doing some good things, and some fairly pointless, if not badly unproductive, things.  

It's funny to see his most ardent supporters twisting themselves into knots trying to redeem some of his less productive ideas. 

But I remind myself of how Obama's supporters did the same thing in his first term, when it became completely obvious that he was no reformer in the manner of Roosevelt, but a pawn of the moneyed interests of the Clinton cartel.  

This is why I don't like politics and ideology in general.  They tend to make people say and do dumb things.

Even those who support what may be a legitimately very good cause can distort themselves, make themselves much worse, by supporting a candidate who favors that issue, but is a ragged monstrosity on every other issue.

Well, its a difficult time to be human.  I think it is mostly that way.

We are advised to be hospitable to strangers, because in doing so we may be offering kindness to angels. 

But these days people tend to offer harshness and hostility to strangers, but consider themselves to be the paragons of the Christian spirit.  What do we make of that?

Need little, want less, love more.  For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

The Superbowl is this coming Sunday I hear.  The young man is going to join some friends in this American rite, and I doubt Daisy and I will be watching.  

But there are some interesting things on sale in the supermarkets that may provide some consolation.

Remember to feed God's creatures, the least of these, especially in these months of bad weather.  

It is in healing his little ones that we heal ourselves.   

But who says that the angels and the Spirit need to appear to us only as people? 

I know of several dogs and cats who, in their own way, seem to be sweet little angels — and imps!

Have a pleasant weekend.

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Love, and Walk Humbly With Your God

 

"Mere waiting and looking on is not Christian behavior.   Christians are called to compassion and to action. We pray for the big things, and forget to give thanks for the ordinary, small, and yet really not so small, blessings. 

In the Incarnation the whole human race recovers the dignity of the image of God.   Thereafter, any attack, even on the least of men, is an attack on Christ, who took on the form of man, and in his own Person restored the image of God in all.  

Through our relationship with the Incarnation, we recover our true humanity, and at the same time are delivered from that perverse individualism which is the consequence of sin, and recover our solidarity with all mankind." 

Dietrich Bonhoeffer, The Cost of Discipleship, 1937

“Since it is so likely that children will meet cruel enemies, let them at least have heard of brave knights and heroic courage.  Otherwise you are making their destiny not brighter but darker.”

C.S. Lewis, On Stories: And Other Essays on Literature, 1966

"The way in which a man accepts his fate and all the suffering it entails, the way in which he takes up his cross, gives him ample opportunity — even under the most difficult circumstances — to add a deeper meaning to his life.  It may remain brave, dignified and unselfish. Or in the bitter fight for self-preservation he may forget his human dignity and become no more than an animal.

In concentration camps we watched and witnessed some of our comrades behave like swine while others behaved like saints.  We can remember the men who walked through the huts comforting others, giving away their last piece of bread.  They offer sufficient proof that everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one's attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one's own way."

Viktor E. Frankl, Man's Search For Meaning, 1946

“There are only two kinds of people in the end — those who say to God, 'Thy will be done,' and those to whom God says, in the end, 'Thy will be done.'  All that are in Hell choose it.  Without that self-choice there could be no Hell.”

C.S. Lewis, The Great Divorce, 1945

"Proclaim the truth and do not be silent in fear. We have had enough pressure to be silent. Cry out with a thousand voices. The world is rotten because of silence. You know that every evil is founded in the love of self. Self-love is a fog that takes away the light of reason, which sustains itself by the light of faith.  Love transforms us into what we love. 

Be who God meant you to be, and you will set the world on fire."

Catherine of Siena, 1376


The markets will be watching the Non-Farm Payrolls report tomorrow closely, and will react to any surprises, one way or another.  

Tech, aka the Magnificent Seven, finished slightly higher with the broader markets unchanged to lower.

Gold and silver were under a bit of pressure but finished almost unchanged.

VIX continued to move lower.  It is now in the area where some break in recent bullish momentum may be in the cards. 

The geopolitical scene is highly unsettled, and risks as defined as uncertainty are abounding.

The best lack all conviction, while the worst are filled with passionate intensity.
And what rough beast,its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born.

That is what W. B. Yeats had to say in 1919, as he looked at an uncertain wave of historically significant  events unfolding.

"The Lord requires you to act justly, and to love kindness and mercy, and to walk humbly with your God."

Everything else is ornament and embellishment.

Have a pleasant evening.

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Crazy Man School of RealPolitik

 

"Mass propaganda discovered that its audience was ready at all times to believe the worst, no matter how absurd, and did not particularly object to being deceived because it held every statement to be a lie anyhow.   The totalitarian mass leaders based their propaganda on the correct psychological assumption that, under such conditions, one could make people believe the most fantastic statements one day, and trust that if the next day they were given irrefutable proof of their falsehood, they would take refuge in cynicism; instead of deserting the leaders who had lied to them, they would protest that they had known all along that the statement was a lie and would admire the leaders for their superior tactical cleverness."

Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism

"Nothing is so unworthy of a civilized nation as allowing itself to be 'governed' without opposition by an irresponsible clique that has yielded to base instinct.  It is certain that today every honest German is ashamed of his government.  Who among us has any conception of the dimensions of shame that will befall us and our children when one day the veil has fallen from our eyes and the most horrible of crimes— crimes that infinitely outdistance every human measure— reach the light of day? 

If the German people are already so corrupted and spiritually crushed that they do not raise a hand, frivolously trusting in a questionable faith in lawful order in history; if they surrender man’s highest principle, that which raises him above all other God’s creatures, his free will; if they abandon the will to take decisive action and turn the wheel of history and thus subject it to their own rational decision; if they are so devoid of all individuality, have already gone so far along the road toward turning into a spiritless and cowardly mass— then, yes, they deserve their downfall."

The White Rose, First Leaflet, Munich 1942

"When humanity, subjugated by the terror of crime, has been driven mad by fear and horror, and when chaos has become the supreme law, then the time for the empire of lawlessness will have come."

Fritz Lang, Das Testament des Dr. Mabuse, 1933


The US president made a somewhat shocking announcement about the US taking long term possession of Gaza, clearing the land and developing it, and relocating the 2.2 million Palestinians to 'someplace nice.'  

There are several plausible interpretations of this development. It was something pre-written on paper which he read out, so it was not something just said 'off the hip.'

So either he meant it, and is in keeping with intentions put forward by a number of groups in the US and Israel.

Or, he was trying to break the 'deadlock' in the area by throwing an outrageous offer on the table, in order to provoke some of the parties towards alternatives.  

And acting crazy and off the wall is one negotiating tactic that has been used to some effect.  Richard Pryor had a famous bit about this and his 'pay negotiations' with club owning mobsters in Youngstown.  And Nikita Khrushchev famously took off his shoe and started banging it on the podium at the UN.  I remember seeing ad posters on buses at the time with a picture of this and the quote, "We will bury you."

There were some obvious whoppers rolled into his proposal, like how everyone he discussed it with thought it was a great idea.  That may be right, if the only people he discussed it with was his son-in-law the developer and some of the warhawks in his cabinet.

I won't bother speculating on what he intended.  It can be argued either way.  Narcissists are a difficult read and applying the normal rules of logic may not be appropriate and sound.

But I do know that negotiating in geopolitical flashpoints might not be the same business venue as one would use when negotiating a real estate deal in NY or NJ, or a payment issue with the mob in a nightclub. 

When I was running a global business unit I had someone pull that sort of thing on me at a contract signing that was settled, and that required me to travel to Washington DC in the winter.  They did not read the room correctly, and the power balance in the relationship.   It was not a macho thing.  But I made a rather compelling example out of the inappropriateness of it, which was exactly the right thing to do.   It never happened again, with any partner or vendor.  I even did it once with a very large computer software company who was clearly above my weight class, so you won't think I was a bully.  That was a calculated risk.

I would never, ever do that with a customer, let's be clear.  Even if they are being ridiculous, and abusive, you just walk away smiling and politely after having tried your best.  They are always right, even when they are wrong.

And of course, there is the possible chance that someone will call your bluff.  And make you back it up.

But as for the markets, they seemed to shrug all this off and moved higher.

VIX fell back below its moving averages again.

The dollar did a sideways wash and rinse, and finished slightly lower.

Gold and silver rallied quite sharply, but then fell to selling pressure in the afternoon, as is usual.

NY likes to play when the rest of the world goes to sleep.

Let's see how we finish out the week.

Have a pleasant evening.