Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Between Kind Chance and Tears

 

"Thus it happens that those who have force on loan from fate count on it too much and are destroyed.  But at the time their own destruction seems impossible to them.  For they do not see that the force in their possession is only a limited quantity; nor do they see their relations with other human beings as a kind of balance between unequal amounts of force.

Since other people do not impose on their movements that halt, that interval of hesitation, wherein lies all our consideration for our brothers in humanity, they conclude that destiny has given complete license to them, and none at all to their inferiors.

And at this point they exceed the measure of the force that is actually at their disposal. Inevitably they exceed it, since they are not aware that it is limited. And now we see them committed irretrievably to chance; suddenly things cease to obey them.

Sometimes chance is kind to them, sometimes cruel. But in any case there they are, exposed, open to misfortune; gone is the armor of power that formerly protected their naked souls; nothing, no shield, stands between them and tears."

Simone Weil, The Iliad, or The Poem of Force, 1940

“They're talking about things of which they don't have the slightest understanding, anyway.  It's only because of their stupidity that they're able to be so sure of themselves.”

Franz Kafka, The Trial, 1915

"Nothing is so unworthy of a civilized nation as allowing itself to be 'governed' without opposition by an irresponsible clique that has yielded to base instinct. 

It is certain that today every honest German is ashamed of his government.  Who among us has any conception of the dimensions of shame that will befall us and our children when one day the veil has fallen from our eyes and the most horrible of crimes - crimes that infinitely outdistance every human measure - reach the light of day?"

The White Rose, First Pamphlet, Munich 1942


Stocks were in rally mode today to accompany the Donald's paean to his 'big beautiful bill' with Bessent and Vance singing the chorus.

But alas, stocks flopped rather hard and finished in the red.  This seems to be a recurring theme.

Silver managed to post some gains with style.  

Gold was just hanging on as the Dollar rallied back from earlier losses. 

Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow.

Complacency abounds.

Geopolitical risks are not priced into this market.  

Therefore, an event will appear to be unexpected, and the pyramid schemes will crumble.

This is what passes for economic and regulatory policy in our plutocratic state these days.

Have a pleasant evening. 

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The People of the Lie

 

“Evil is not committed by people who feel uncertain about their righteousness, who question their own motives, who worry about betraying themselves.  The evil in this world is committed by the spiritual fat cats, by the Pharisees of our own day, the self-righteous who think they are without sin because they are unwilling to suffer the discomfort of significant self-examination.

The evil hate the light—the light of goodness that shows them up, the light of scrutiny that exposes them, the light of truth that penetrates their deception.”

M. Scott Peck, People of the Lie, October 10, 2023

"Narcissists damage and hurt but they do so offhandedly and naturally, as an afterthough. They are aware of what they are doing to others - but they do not care.”

Sam Vaknin, Malignant Self-Love

“'Woe to you, Pharisees.  For you love to sit in the seats of honor in the synagogues and receive respectful greetings as you walk in the marketplaces. What sorrow is awaiting you.  For you are like hidden graves in a field. People walk over them without knowing the corruption.'

'Teacher,' said an expert in religious law, 'you have insulted us too, in what you just said.'

And Jesus said, 'What sorrow also awaits you lawyers and teachers of the law.  For you crush people with unreasonable demands, and you never lift a finger to ease their burden.  What sorrow awaits you.  For you raise monuments to the very prophets that your fathers killed.'"

Luke 11:40-50

"We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men.  It is not merely that at present the rule of naked force obtains almost everywhere.  Bully-worship, under various disguises, has become a universal religion."

George Orwell, Book Review of Bertrand Russell's Power, 1939

 

This was an interesting way that Zelensky and Trump decided to kick off a proposed cease-fire discussion.

This isn't NY real estate deals, bullying  and threatening weaker parties.   

I suspect that Putin is from the Chicago School:  'They send one of ours to the hospital, we send one of theirs to the morgue.'

But this is not funny, and it is a game that comes with consequences.   Papa needs a brand new bag. 

Stocks lost their early rally attempt.

The Dollar declined.

VIX is now at the complacent level.

It's a matter of days to the next correction. 

Not even Bessent and the ESF can prop this mispriced pig up indefinitely.

Believe what you will, it's still a nominally free country.

But if you wish to trade the markets, it's good to see things as they are behind the enticing illusions. 

Have a pleasant evening. 

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Thy Will Be Done

 

"In all these instances the large multinational bankers were actively supporting both sides.  It is a shocking fact that both British and American banks continued to do business with the Nazis even after the War was well underway, even as Germany was invading Europe and bombing London."

BBC, Banking with Hitler, 1998

"One of the primary characteristics of narcissists is their exaggerated sense of entitlement.  In their heavily self-biased opinion, if they want something, by rights it should be theirs.  So, nothing if not opportunistic, they take from public and private coffers alike whatever they think they can get away with.  And given their grandiose sense of self, they're inclined to believe they can get away with most anything."

Leon F. Seltzer, Narcissism: Why It's So Rampant in Politics, December 21, 2011

“When Fascism came into power, most people were unprepared, both theoretically and practically.  They were unable to believe that man could exhibit such propensities for evil, such lust for power, such disregard for the rights of the weak, or such yearning for submission.”

Erich Fromm, Escape from Freedom, 1941

“There are only two kinds of people in the end— those who say to God, 'Thy will be done,' and those to whom God says, in the end, 'Thy will be done.'  All that are in Hell choose it.  Without that self-choice there could be no Hell.”

C.S. Lewis, The Great Divorce, 1945

"War against a foreign country only happens when the moneyed classes think they are going to profit from it."

George Orwell

"They say to their seers, 'Do not see!’ and to the prophets, 'Say nothing of what is right!  Tell us only things that please us.  Prophesy illusions."

Isaiah 30:9-10

"It is so important to understand that one of the primary means of immobilizing the American people politically today is to hold them in a state of confusion in which anything can be believed but nothing can be known, nothing of significance that is.  And the American people are more than willing to be held in this state because to know the truth — as opposed to only believe the truth — is to face an awful terror and to be no longer able to evade responsibility."

E. Martin Schotz, History Will Not Absolve Us, 1996

"Many of us like to ask ourselves, 'What would I do if I was alive during slavery?  Or the Jim Crow South?  Or apartheid?  What would I do if my country was committing genocide?'  The answer is, you're doing it.  Right now."

Aaron Bushnell

"They live out their days in prosperity, and slide peacefully down into hell."

Job 21:13

In keeping with the endless wash and rinse most markets had a bit of a reversal today.

Gold and silver fell, although both came back quite a bit from their lows.

The Dollar bounced.

Stocks managed to rally a bit.

VIX fell even lower, into the territory that suggests a correction may be in the cards.

All in all, a snoratorium except for hard core day traders.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Truth to Powerful Illusions

 

"The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake.  We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power, pure power.  What pure power means you will understand presently.  We are different from the oligarchies of the past in that we know what we are doing.  All the others, even those who resembled ourselves, were cowards and hypocrites.

The German Nazis and the Russian Communists came very close to us in their methods, but they never had the courage to recognize their own motives. They pretended, perhaps they even believed, that they had seized power unwillingly and for a limited time, and that just around the corner there lay a paradise where human beings would be free and equal.

We are not like that. We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it.  Power is not a means; it is an end.  One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship.  The object of persecution is persecution.  The object of torture is torture.  The object of power is power.”

George Orwell, 1984

"What happens to a society fed a diet of rushed, re-purposed, thinly reported content? Or branded content that is really merchandising — propaganda — posing as journalism? And what happens when PR turns a profit and the truth goes penniless?"

Bill Moyers, Journalism in the Pressure Cooker of Plutocracy, May 26, 2015

"Early on in the gospel traditions the power elite in Jesus’ society, who were colluding with the Roman Empire, recognized him as a threat and began to conspire to kill him.  Jesus became a reference point for much of the hostility and resistance to the power of the empire because he refused to accommodate it, and told another story of reality that the empire could not co-opt."

Jonathan Merritt, Walter Brueggemann On How to Speak Truth to Power, June 26, 2014 


Gold and silver were the big story today, as they both had a 'snapback rally' from the market manipulation of last week with their option expiration on the Comex.

There will be a Non-Farm Payrolls report on this Friday the 6th.  Shenanigans are to be expected.

Some think that markets are 'efficient,' that is the assumption that prices are set by supply and demand, on a fairly even and steady course.

And this has proven to be discredited nonsense.  Prices in lightly regulated markets in the short term are set at the margins, as larger players with more knowledge and leverage and a bigger stack of chips can push the price of things around with relative ease.  

Longer term manipulation is possible with a great application of force and fraud.   

The efficient market hypothesis is a such an implausible canard that I doubt anyone who was not talking their book or plagued by commercial or ideologically induced naïveté could have said it.

“Some economists, when thinking about long memory, are concerned that it undercuts the Efficient Market Hypothesis that prices fully reflect all relevant information; that the random walk is the best metaphor to describe such markets; and that you cannot beat such an unpredictable market.  Well, the Efficient Market Hypothesis is no more than that, a hypothesis.  Many a grand theory has died under the onslaught of real data.”

Benoît B. Mandelbrot, The (Mis)Behavior of Markets, 1997

Stocks managed to creep up today. 

VIX continued to fall.

Uncle Buck took it on the chin a bit, back down to the 98 handle. 

I suspect that things are not going to be going well in general over the next few month, despite what the media of our free nations will be saying and the burning need that some cultist sorts may feel to believe in false idols, until their bitter end.   

Have a pleasant evening.