15 January 2025

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Even If Someone Who Has Risen From the Dead

 

"You belong to your father, the devil, and you want to serve your father’s desires.   He was a murderer from the beginning, not holding to the truth, for there is no truth in him.  When he lies, he speaks his native language, for he is a liar and the father of lies."

John 8:43-44

"It is not possible to found a lasting power upon injustice, lies, and treachery.  These may, perhaps, succeed at first, and limp along on hope for awhile with a flourishing appearance.  But time betrays their weakness, and they eventually fall into ruin of their own designs."

Demosthenes, Bartleby, 1917

"What is offensive is that they lie, and worship their own lying."

Fyodor Dostoevsky, Crime and Punishmen, December 1866

"'No man can serve two masters. He will either hate the one and love the other, or be devoted to one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and mammon.' The Pharisees, who were money loving and covetous, heard all these things and sneered at him. And Jesus said, 'You justify yourselves in the sight of others, but God knows your hearts.'"

Luke 16:13-14

“Then the rich man said, ‘I beg you, Father Abraham, send Lazarus to my father’s house. For I have five brothers for him to warn, so that they also will not come to this place of desolation and torment.’ But Abraham said, ‘They have Moses and the Prophets. Let them listen to them.’

But the rich man again said, ‘No, Father Abraham, but if someone from the dead comes back and speaks to them, they will repent.’ And Abraham said, ‘If they do not listen to Moses and the Prophets, neither will they listen if someone tells them who has risen from the dead!’”

Luke 16:27-31

"Cromwell:  Sir Richard is appointed Attorney General for Wales.
Thomas More:  For Wales. Why Richard, it profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world— but for Wales?"

Robert Bolt, A Man For All Seasons


As you may have heard the CPI number for US consumer inflation came in dovish this morning.

Stocks rallied like is was 1999.   Or 1929.

JP Morgan led the banking sector higher with record trading profits.

What a surprise.

Bitcoin took back 100,000.

There will be a stock option expiration on Friday.

VIX fell down smashing into its moving averages.

Gold and silver rallied.

The Dollar came back to unchanged from its early morning losses.

More gold leaked out of the Comex Hong Kong warehouses.

Biden is going to give his farewell speech tonight. 

Donny is going to be inaugurated in the near future.

Declarations of a cease fire in Gaza cheered the spokesmodels.

They were just bubbly this afternoon.

The outgoing crew, Blinken, Biden, and Sullivan, have been giving their farewell interviews and speeches this week.  No doubt prepping for their next lives in the private and academic sector.

Professional deceivers and delusionists, one and all. 

Are you not entertained?

Have a pleasant evening.




14 January 2025

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - And That's the Name of That Tune

 

“There are times when wisdom cannot be found in the chambers of parliament or the halls of academia but at the unpretentious setting of the kitchen table.”

E.A. Bucchianeri

Just charts tonight.

A large amount of physical gold left the Comex registered Hong Kong vaults, taking down the total ounces to a new low. China tends to be a physical market. That sucking sound is gold bullion flowing from West to East, not to return at these prices. 

There will be an option expiration on Friday.

Have a pleasant evening.


13 January 2025

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Cycle of Force and Fraud

 

"One of the most important barometers of the world's financial health could be sending false signals. In a development that has implications for borrowers everywhere, from Russian oil producers to homeowners in Detroit, bankers and traders are expressing concerns that the London inter-bank offered rate, known as Libor, is becoming unreliable. [See below: It was subsequently shown to be fraudulent.]

Libor plays a crucial role in the global financial system.  Calculated every morning in London from information supplied by banks all over the world, it's a measure of the average interest rate at which banks make short-term loans to one another.  Libor provides a key indicator of their health, rising when banks are in trouble. Its influence extends far beyond banking:  The interest rates on trillions of dollars in corporate debt, home mortgages and financial contracts reset according to Libor.

In recent months, the financial crisis sparked by subprime-mortgage problems has jolted banks and sent Libor sharply upward.  The growing suspicions about Libor's veracity suggest that banks' troubles could be worse than they're willing to admit."

Carrick Mollenkamp, Bankers Cast Doubt On Key Rate Amid Crisis, Wall Street Journal, April 16,2008

"I've been hesitant to write about the LIBOR scandal because what I want to say goes so much further.  We now know that Barclays and other major global banks have been manipulating the calculation of LIBOR through the quotation data they provided to the British Bankers Association.  What I suspect is that this is not a flaw but a feature of modern financial markets.  And if it was happening in LIBOR for between 5 and 15 years, then the business model has been profitably replicated to many other quotation-based reference prices.

Price discovery is not a sexy function of markets, but it is critical to the efficient allocation of scarce capital and resources, and to the preservation of the long term wealth of investors and the economy as a whole.  If price discovery is compromised by manipulation, then we will all be gradually impoverished and the economy will be imbalanced and unstable."

London Banker, Lies, Damn Lies, and LIBOR, 10 July 2012

"The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has been negligent in failing to terminate the obvious manipulation ongoing in silver.  Furthermore, the agency may be complicit in this manipulation. Worse, it has lied to the public and elected officials.  This all goes back to the time when Bear Stearns was taken over by JPMorgan in March of 2008.

It is well known that Bear Stearns went under as a result of a sudden loss of liquidity amidst a run by creditors and customers.  What is not well known is that those problems were greatly exacerbated by a $2 billion margin call on silver and gold short positions from the end of December 2007 to March 2008.  I believe the silver and gold margin calls were at the heart of Bear Stearns’ failure.

We know now (from CFTC correspondence to lawmakers in 2008) that JPMorgan took over Bear Stearns’ giant silver and gold short positions on the COMEX.  Up until that time, we did not know that Bear Stearns was the concentrated silver and gold short.  Using Commitment of Traders Report (COT) data, Bear Stearns had a COMEX silver short position of no less than 35,000 net contracts and a COMEX gold short position of no less than 60,000 net contracts from the end of December 2007 to their takeover by JPMorgan two and a half months later. 

From December 31, 2007 to mid-March 2008, the price of silver rose by $6 (from $15 to $21) and the price of gold rose from $850 to over $1000.  Based upon the number of contracts held short by Bear Stearns and the price movement at that time, that resulted in margin calls of $2 billion.  I would contend that was the real reason for Bear Stearns’ demise."

Ted Butler, Illegalities, May 25, 2012

"The key to a general reform has been and still is campaign finance reform and a reduction of lobbying payments and campaign contributions as soft bribes to Congress. As the banks cannot regulate and reform themselves, at least according to John Mack's recent advice to the American people, so the Congress and the federal government seem incapable of reforming and managing themselves. If one does it, takes liberties with the law, then they all want to do it to a greater or lesser degree; and in some ways they must if they are to be competitive, if the administration of justice creates the opportunity for selective exceptions, the weakening of regulation.

And too many are yearning for a strong leader, someone who will tell them what to do.  A great man, who will exercise authority with a directness and little or no discussion.  Someone who will 'put things right.' The primary question seems to be less policy than fashion, whether to wear brown shirts or black, and whether torchlight is too retro."

Jesse, A Partnership Between Wall Street and Government Until the System Collapses, 19 November 2009


And the wash and rinse continues.

I came in prepped for the post Non-Farm Payrolls kickback wash cycle.

Gold and silver were slammed this morning.  

The Dollar gained a little in a mostly sideways chop.

VIX fell.

Stocks fell sharply but managed to take back their losses into the afternoon close.

Keep an eye on the option expirations and the upcoming CPI and PPI numbers.

Wouldn't it have been nice if, instead of throwing away hundredsof billions of dollars in corrupt adventures in proxy wars, theft, and murder en masse overseas, we had spent a portion of that money on hardening the US infrastructure, including the water systems, public transportation, energy independence and the electric grid? 

“The worst crimes were dared by a few, willed by more, and tolerated by all.”

Tacitus

This is why nations, and empires, fail.

Have a pleasant evening.

Related: Corruption as an Element of the Financial Crisis, Le Cafe, February 2009

10 January 2025

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Uncle Thug and the Bridegrooms of Death

 

"Where are the princes of this world, and those who lorded it over the creatures of the earth?  Those who made sport of the birds of the air, and hoarded up riches in which they trusted, and for whom there is no limit to their greed, those who schemed to get wealth, and were always anxious about their possessions.  But now there is no trace left of them.  They have vanished down into the bowels of the earth, and others have risen to take their place."

Baruch 3:16-19

"Rome has grown so much from its humble beginnings that it is now overwhelmed by its greatness."

Titus Livius, Praefatio, Ab Urbe Condita

“Foolishness is a more dangerous enemy of the good than malice. Against such foolishness we are defenseless. Neither protests nor the use of force accomplish anything here; reasons fall on deaf ears; facts that contradict one’s prejudgment simply need not be believed – in such moments the foolish person even becomes critical – and when facts are irrefutable they are just pushed aside as inconsequential, as incidental.

In all this the foolish person, in contrast to the malicious one, is utterly self satisfied and, being easily irritated, becomes dangerous by going on the attack. For that reason, greater caution is called for when dealing with a foolish person than with a malicious one. Never again will we try to persuade the foolish person with reasons, for it is senseless and dangerous.”

Dietrich Bonhoeffer, Prisoner for God: Letters and Papers from Prison, 1944

"Where does the truth lie? Should one go off and build a little house with flowers outside the windows and a garden outside the door and extol and thank God and turn one’s back on the world and its filth? Isn’t seclusion a form of treachery, of desertion? I am weak and small, but I want to do what is right."

Hans Scholl, Letters and Diaries, 1941

"Where are the leaders? Has our political process become so compromised by powerful interest groups and the threat of character assassination that even the best among us will not dare to speak honestly about the solutions that might bring us back to common sense and fundamental fairness?"

Senator Jim Webb, A Time to Fight, 2008

"Now why don't you just take it easy, Group Captain, and please make me a drink of grain alcohol and rainwater, and help yourself to whatever you'd like."

General Jack D. Ripper (Sterling Hayden), Dr. Strangelove


The Non-Farm Payrolls report came in much 'hotter' than expected this morning.

And that triggered a reaction in the market with regard to the timing and size of interest rate cuts by the Fed this year.

And so stocks fell, rather sharply, and put in another lower low to go with its recent trend of lower highs and lower lows.

Not constructive for the bull market narrative in equities.

Gold and silver rallied sharply higher along with the US Dollar.

I'm not quite sure how to explain that one, except that together with the rising VIX it looked like a 'flight to safety' provoked by uncertainty of what Big Daddy Fed may do next.

We will have a minor stock option expiration next Friday.

This market is one accident away from a meltdown.

And Uncle Thug and his bridegrooms of death are driving recklessly, drunk with power.

The mispricing of risks is going to have its effect.

Have a pleasant weekend.