Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - A Desperate Sense of Entitlement

 

"There seems little question that in 1929, modifying a famous cliche, the economy was fundamentally unsound. This is a circumstance of first-rate importance. In 1929 the rich were indubitably rich. The figures are not entirely satisfactory, but it seems certain that the five per cent of the population with the highest incomes in that year received approximately one-third of all income.

The proportion of personal income received in the form of interest, dividends, and rent – the income, broadly speaking, of the well-to-do – was about twice as great as in the years following the Second World War. This highly unequal income distribution meant that the economy was dependent on a high level of investment or a high level of luxury consumer spending or both. The rich cannot buy great quantities of bread. This high bracket spending and investment was especially susceptible, one may assume, to the crushing news from the stock market in October 1929."

John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929

"The convention that gives the dollar an over-riding value as an international currency no longer has its initial basis, namely the possession by America of the great majority of the gold in the world...

For all these reasons, France is in favor of the system being changed. We therefore believe it to be necessary for international exchanges to be established, as was the case before the world’s great misfortunes, on an unquestionable monetary basis, that does not carry the mark of any particular country.

What basis?  Indeed, we cannot see that, in this respect, there can be any other criterion, any other standard, than gold.

Oh, yes.  Gold, which never changes its nature, which can be shaped into bars, ingots or coins, which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally-accepted as the unalterable fiduciary value par excellence.  Moreover, despite everything that could be imagined, said, written, done, as huge events happened, it is a fact that there is still today no currency that can compare, either by a direct or an indirect relationship, real or imagined, with gold."

Charles De Gaulle, press conference, Palais de l’Élysée, February 4, 1965

"Indeed, one can be deceived in many ways; one can be deceived in believing what is untrue, but on the other hand, one is also deceived in not believing what is true."

Søren Kierkegaard, Kjerlighedens Gjerninger, SKS vol.9, 1847

"It begins with a highly complex financial system, whose very complexity makes it difficult for anyone to know what might be going wrong; by definition, the multiple parts of the financial system are linked, which means that trouble in one institution, city, or region can travel easily and quickly to others.  Buoyant growth in the economy makes the financials system more fragile, in part due to the demand for capital and in part due to the tendency of some institutions to take on more risk than is prudent.  

Leaders in government and the financials sector implement policies that advertently or inadvertently increase the exposure to risk of crisis.  An economic shock hits the financials system. The mood of the market swings from optimism to pessimism, create a self-reinforcing downward spiral."

Robert Bruner and Sean Carr, The Panic of 1907

"For these are a rebellious people, deceitful children, unwilling to listen to the commandments of the Lord.  They say to their seers,‘Do not see!’ and to the prophets,‘Say nothing of what is right!  Tell us only things that please us — prophesy illusions."

Isaiah 30:8-10


Stocks were continuing their swoon from last week as the day began.  

VIX opened at an elevated level.

But as the day wore on, and the rest of the world went to bed, the markets gathered themselves together an moved higher.

VIX fell, giving back almost all of its increase.

Gold rallied.  

Silver initially slumped with stocks but managed to bounce back to pretty much unchanged.

Bitcoin continues waffling around, showing no particular conviction except for a measured profit-taking.

 As a reminder I am still in the 'quiet period' for this latest episode, Trump 2.0.  I try to remain on the sidelines for the first 100 days of a new administration, which should be over at the end of April.

But fair warning, I don't like politicians.  I did not care for Biden — or Obama, Bush, and Clintons all.  We in the West seem to be plagued by an increasingly poor set of options in leadership.

The economy's destruction may be one of Trump's greatest hits, outside of the realm of constitutional governance, which for some time has been in dire circumstance indeed.

The steady erosion of the Bill of Rights, under the guise of the selfish aims of a foreign government, is a most discouraging trend.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Called to the Supper of the Lamb

 

"The great event on Calvary is a telescope through which we look out into the long vista of eternity and see the love of God breaking forth into time.  It is an eternal reminder to a power drunk generation that love is most durable power in the world."

Martin Luther King, St. Paul’s Letter to the American Churches, November 4, 1956

"For your love for me disappears as quickly as a morning mist; it is like the dew, that melts away early in the day.   That is why I send my prophets with messages of judgment and destruction, to strike them with the My words.   My judgment reveals them like lightning.  For I desire mercy, and not sacrifice; and a faithful knowledge of my ways, more than burnt offerings."

Hosea 6:4-6

"This is how we know who are the children of God and who are the children of the Satan: anyone who does not do what is good is not God’s child, nor is anyone who does not love their neighbor."

1 John 3:10

"What is surprising is not that we are called to do so much, but rather, so little.  And so often we grudgingly fail to do even that, or do something else in the way that we please and call it a sacrifice.  Love and be grateful to God, treat people as you would like to be treated with respect, kindness, mercy and forgiveness."

Jesse, The Gradual Seduction of Evil, 30 June 2017

"Then the angel said to me, 'Write.  Blessed are those who are called to the wedding supper of the Lamb. These are the true words of God.'"

Revelation 19:9


Stocks apparently did not like the look of things this morning, and headed south.

And they continued to decline in a big way, going out near the lows.

We are now at the point where we begin to decide whether this is a stiff correction, or something more involved.

Gold rallied further, being pressed down from the 3100 level.

Silver took a hit, in sympathy with stocks.   That's often how it goes.

Bitcoin got bit-punched down a bit.  It's still wildly overvalued, but all things with time.

VIX of course rose sharply.

I'll relate this even though I wasn't going to say anything, because I think it's funny.

Yesterday I resolved to give up trading for today, as a bit of a Friday sacrifice for Lent.  Yes I abstain from meat, but I don't view that as much of an effort.

So I closed out all my positions before the close, and vowed not to trade today, not to even put on positions at or after the close for the weekend.

Well, you can see what happened.   My favorite positions would have had a fairly large return.  Not enough to buy a new car, but enough to feel pretty good, and maybe even tempted to be a little bit proud.  Whenever I lean in that direction, God tends to stomp me to the curb.

Sometimes you just have to laugh.   I made an offering, and God piled it high, and tamped it down for me.

But in all of this we remember that God does not 'need' anything of ours: not our possessions, not our obeisance, not shows of our regard.

What he wants is to love us.  And he leaves it up to us to accept his love.

And so we are commanded to do things, not in the way that a human ruler commands, but in the way that a loving mother tells her children to do and not to do things, for their own good.  

It's hard to grasp, because we have such a gulf in intellect between ourselves and the eternal.  But if we keep his commandments, making him and his love our first priority, we might come out all right in the end. 

God clearly wanted me to conquer myself, to put things important to me here in the world in their proper place.

One of the scribes came to Jesus and asked him, "Which is the first of all the commandments?" Jesus replied, "The first is this: Hear, O Israel! The Lord our God is Lord alone! You shall love the Lord your God with all your heart, with all your soul, with all your mind, and with all your strength. The second is this: You shall love your neighbor as yourself. There is no other commandment greater than these."    Mark 12:28-31.

And for this I am grateful.

But, ouch.

Donny is providing some real fireworks and I just have to wonder how long he can keep this up before he and his Merry Pranksters break something important.

The West in general seems to be having bad luck with leadership, for quite a few years now.

Perhaps this is a reflection of us.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - 'The Judgments of the Lord'

 

"The way we may be sure that we know him is to keep his commandments.  Whoever says, “I know him,” but does not keep his commandments is a liar, and the truth is not in him.  But whoever keeps his word, the love of God is truly perfected in him.   This is the way we may know that we are in union with him: whoever claims to abide in him ought to live as he lived.

Beloved, I am writing no new commandment to you but an old commandment that you had from the beginning.   The old commandment is the word that you have heard.  And yet I do write a new commandment to you, which holds true in him and among you, for the darkness is passing away, and the true light is already shining.

Whoever says he is in the light, yet hates his brother, is still in the darkness.  Whoever loves his brother remains in the light, and there is nothing in him to cause a fall.  Whoever hates his brother is in darkness; he walks in darkness and does not know where he is going because the darkness has blinded his eyes."

1 John 2:3-11

"There are six things the Lord hates, no, seven that are detestable to him: proud eyes, a lying tongue, hands that harm the innocent, a heart that plots wicked schemes, feet that are quick to rush into evil, a false witness whose mouth pours out lies, and most of all, a person who stirs up conflicts in a community."

Proverbs 6:16-19

‘Not everyone who says to me, 'Lord, Lord', will enter the kingdom of heaven, but only one who does the will of my Father in heaven.  On that day many will say to me, 'Lord, Lord, did we not prophesy in your name, and cast out demons in your name, and accomplish great things in your name?'   Then I will declare to them, ''I do not know you. Depart from me, you who practice lawlessness.'”

Matthew 7:21-23

"'Woe unto the world because of offenses for it must needs be that offenses come but woe to that man by whom the offense cometh.' ... Fondly do we hope ~ fervently do we pray ~ that this mighty scourge of war may speedily pass away.  Yet, if God wills that it continue until all the wealth piled by the bondsman's two hundred and fifty years of unrequited toil shall be sunk and until every drop of blood drawn with the lash shall be paid by another drawn with the sword as was said three thousand years ago, so still it must be said 'the judgments of the Lord are true and righteous altogether.'

With malice toward none with charity for all with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right let us strive on to finish the work we are in to bind up the nation's wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan ~ to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations."

Abraham Lincoln, Second Inaugural Address, March 4, 1865


The ordinary mind is capable of and accustomed for executing the daily tasks of life.  And at times as we have seen, it surmounts even the most daunting and extraordinary challenges.  The practical mind of man has been able to produce almost astonishing mechanical wonders.

But when momentous events are upon us, we cannot recognize them for what they are.  Only the distant view of time can discern the patterns of history. 

We are now in such a time, where forces of political and spiritual struggle long in the making are coming to a confrontation, a climax perhaps, in which a resolution, a turning point, may be struck.   And it is likely that there will be forged a turn in the path of progress, and the fortunes of a people, with lasting consequences.

Hearts are inflamed with anger, and greed, and madness and malice towards the other, through which they blindly and unknowingly seek to escape the heavy weight of events which they do not comprehend.

But if enough of us can rise above ourselves, and see things with the wisdom in which we have been instructed and commanded through the ages, can we not hope that selfish and unspeakable lawlessness can be turned aside, and a covenant with the truth and a bond of faithfulness be forged among us once again?

Can we let go of these insults and abuses towards everything we have been given that is good?  Can we avoid the reckoning, the suffering, distress, and regret, the awful hand of God, that we are bringing down upon our children and the world?

Shall we stop this bleeding? 

The Dollar dropped back down towards the 104 handle.

Stocks rallied but then slumped after Trump announced new 25% tariffs on non-US manufactured automobiles.

Gold and silver soared from the open, and went out near the highs.

If they can hold up into the weekend I might see some significance in this break from the usual trading pattern.

I actually came in this morning with a modest bet in that direction, based on nothing but the 'feel of the tape' n the futures trading.

February 19, 2025 AP Newswire:

THE PRESIDENT: We’ll see what happens. But one of the things — we do want to look. I mean, we hope everything’s fine with Fort Knox, but we’re going to go to Fort Knox — the fabled Fort Knox — to make sure the gold is there.
REPORTER: Where would the gold have gone?
THE PRESIDENT: If the gold isn’t there, we’re going to be very upset.

I tend to take the things that the Donald takes with a grain of salt, even while he is the President.

He likes to speak expansively and 'off the cuff.'  

Most politicians in the US and Europe lie these days, and love their own ability to lie.  But Donald is a bit more 'flamboyant'.

But let's see what happens with all this.  I was watching this current Comex option expiration carefully, the huge influx of 2000 tonnes of gold into the US, enough to knock some percentage points off US GDP, and of course the CME retreat from the physical delivery market of Hong Kong.

I suspect that change, even greater than we might have expected, is on the horizon.

Have a pleasant evening.

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Their God Who Is Unloving and Vile

 

"God will invade.  But I wonder whether people who ask God to interfere openly and directly in our world quite realize what it will be like when He does.  When that happens, it is the end of the world.  When the author walks on to the stage the play is over.  

God is going to invade, all right: but what is the good of saying you are on His side then, when you see the whole natural universe melting away like a dream and something else - something it never entered your head to conceive - comes crashing in; something so beautiful to some of us and so terrible to others that none of us will have any choice left?  For this time, it will be God without disguise; something so overwhelming that it will strike either irresistible love or irresistible horror into every creature.  It will be too late then to choose your side."

C. S. Lewis, Mere Christianity, 1944

"It is blasphemy to separate oneself from the earth and look down on it like a god. It is more than blasphemy; it is dangerous.  We can never be gods, after all — but we can become something less than human with frightening ease.”

N. K. Jemisin, The Hundred Thousand Kingdoms

"As everything in what used to be called creation becomes a commodity, human beings begin to look at one another, and at themselves, in a funny way, and they see price tags. There was a time when people spoke, at least occasionally, of 'inherent worth'— if not of things, then at least of persons.   It is sometimes said that since everything is for sale under the rule of The Market, nothing is sacred.  The Market is not omnipotent— yet.  But the process is under way and it is gaining momentum.

The Market is becoming more like the Yahweh of the Old Testament—not just one superior deity contending with others but the Supreme Deity, the only true God, whose reign must now be universally accepted and who allows for no rivals."

Harvey Cox, The Market as God, March 1999

"A true opium of the people is the belief in nothingness after death, the huge solace, the huge comfort of thinking that for our betrayals, our greed, our cowardice, our murders, we are not going to be judged.”

Czeslaw Milosz, Discreet Charm of Nihilism

“The truth is that we were so spiritually and morally bankrupt that we could not even see some of those lines: we stepped over them blindly.  Other times we saw the lines alright, but we wanted to cross them.  It wasn’t God who was dead.  We were."

Ray A., Practice These Principles

 

To whom does our Lord address his stories of how people reduce themselves to beasts, and damn themselves to the abyss, for so little.

Not the person whom one consider a deviant, a lowlife, less than human, some dirty foreigner, a heathen like the Pharisee thought in the temple, while looking with the hypocrisy and the delusional self-righteousness of pride at the tax collector, who was repenting of his sins..

This is a good time of year to step back, and try to look at ourselves as we are.  And not to presume on a father whom we have come to feel free to use and abuse for our own purposes, as we would like to do to everyone else.

The hour grows short.   And then we will see things as they are, and not as our vanity imagines them.

Stocks were slumping today as expected.   This is classic bubble 'wash and rinse' action.

Gold and silver held up much better than we might have expected.   

But those holding new contracts often get a 'gut check' on the next trading day, depending on how the thrashing of the market had gone.

VIX popped higher, as is the usual thing when it hits that lower moving average.

Hate is hate, anger is anger, greed is greed, and murder is murder, despite the lies we tell ourselves, and hold close to our hearts.

“You cannot play with the animal in you without becoming wholly animal, play with falsehood without forfeiting your right to truth, play with cruelty without losing your sensitivity of mind. Your cravings as a human animal do not become a prayer just because it is God whom you ask to attend to them. God does not die on the day when we cease to believe in a personal deity. But we die on the day when our lives cease to be illumined by the steady radiance, renewed daily, of a wonder the source of which is beyond all reason."   Dag Hammarskjöld, Markings, 1963

And there is no more certain outcome, more inevitable than for each of us, than when we will face our God without disguise; something so overwhelming that it will strike either irresistible love or irresistible horror into every one of his creatures.   

And then we will see the strength and quality of our presumptions, and the vain imaginings, which god it is that we have served.  The God who is love, or the god of our hardened hearts.

Have a pleasant evening.