Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Deliver Us From Evil

 

"You are not a God who delights in evil,
       the lawless cannot remain in your presence.
The arrogant cannot bear the weight of your gaze;
        you despise all who do evil.
You destroy all who tell lies— 
        the Lord detests the violent and the deceitful."

Psalm 5:5-7

"Daughters of Jerusalem, do not weep for me.  Weep instead for yourselves and your children."

Luke 23:28

"Put on sackcloth and lament, you priests.
       Wail, you ministers of the altar.
Come, pass the entire night in repentance,
        you ministers of my God.
For the house of your God will be deprived
        of even the offerings of grains and wine.
Announce a holy fast;
        proclaim a solemn gathering.
Call the elders
        and all the people of the land
To the house of the Lord, your God,
       and cry out unceasing to Him there.
For the day of the Lord is near,
       coming as a destruction from the Almighty.
       What sorrow will visit you on that day.

Sound the trumpet in Zion
        Raise the alarm on my holy mountain.
Let everyone tremble in fear
        because the day of the Lord is upon us.
It is a day of darkness and gloom,
        a day of thick clouds and deep blackness.
Suddenly, like dawn spreading across the mountains,
        a vast and mighty army appears.
Nothing like it has been seen before
        or may likely ever be seen again."

Joel 1:13-15, 2:1-2

"Behold, your house is now yours, but is made desolate.’”

Matthew 23:38


I'm still on vacation.   But I thought today called for at least a weekly update. 

Every day I update my charts, and continue to trade for my own account, lightly. 

Was I positioned for this?   

We had a correction today, as the Donald threatened to slap whopping tariffs on China. 

This was in response to China's throttling of rare earth mineral exports to the US.

'Only we get to do that, ' said J. D.    

The Dollar melted.

VIX soared.

Stocks dropped like stones, and went out near the lows.   

But there is still an open gap, notably on the NDX.

This was just a correction today, and long overdue, the bubble having become overextended in the pursuit of a big, beautiful stock market, the best ever seen.

Walt and the ESF decided to just let it slide, the better to skin your with my dear.

Gold and silver held their levels in the selling, with gold putting together a late rally. 

If we get a serious market reversal I have marked target levels on the charts.

We should, by historical standards, get a rally shortly.  If it fails to make a new high, we could be slipping into a crash sequence which I will be following real time.

Have fun.

And a pleasant weekend.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Rise of the Unspeakable

 

"Even if it were to explode into smithereens today, the fact would remain that it [NSDAP] recently won fifteen million voters. Its brutish, loud-mouthed and brainless behavior has acted not as a deterrent but rather as an attraction, and has generated unconditional and subservient followers."

Carl von Ossietzky, Die Weltbühne, January, 1933

"It is very odd that the unhappiness of the world is so often brought about by small men."

Erich Maria Remarque, All Quiet on the Western Front, 1928

"I have tried to keep memory alive, that I have tried to fight those who would forget.  Because if we forget, we are guilty, we are accomplices.  We could not prevent their deaths the first time, but if we forget them they will be killed a second time.  And this time, it will be our responsibility.

And that is why I swore never to be silent whenever and wherever human beings endure suffering and humiliation.  We must always take sides.  Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim.  Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.  Sometimes we must interfere.  When human lives are endangered, when human dignity is in jeopardy, national borders and sensitivities become irrelevant.  Wherever men or women are persecuted because of their race, religion, or political views, that place must – at that moment – become the center of the universe."

Elie Wiesel, Nobel Prize Acceptance Speech, 10 December 1986

"What theology, history and common sense have taught me is that the civilizations which allow the gap to widen between the ideal to which they claim and the realizations which they propose of it, these civilizations are dying of their hypocrisy.“

Henri-Irénée Marrou, France ma patrie, Le Monde, 5 avril 1956

"The Barbarian hopes — and that is the mark of him, that he can have his cake and eat it too.  He will consume what civilization has slowly produced after generations of selection and effort, but he will not be at pains to replace such goods, nor indeed has he a comprehension of the virtue that has brought them into being.  We sit by and watch the barbarian.  We tolerate him in the long stretches of peace, we are not afraid.  We are tickled by his irreverence; his comic inversion of our old certitudes and our fixed creed refreshes us; we laugh.  But as we laugh we are watched by large and awful faces from beyond, and on these faces there are no smiles."

Hillaire Belloc, This That and the Other, 1912

"Turning to them Jesus said, 'Daughters of Jerusalem, do not weep for me. Weep instead for yourselves and your children.'"

Luke 23:28

"The days are coming when men will go mad, and when they meet a man who has kept his senses, will rise up against him, saying, 'You are mad, because you are not like us.'  And I saw the snares that the enemy spreads out over the world and I said, groaning, 'What can get us through such snares?'  And then I heard a voice saying to me — humility.”

Saint Anthony the Great, Abbot of Colzim Egypt, 251-356


Gold topped and closed above $4000 today.

This marks the consummation of a forecast about the global economy and the 'currency wars' in the resolution of Bretton Woods II that I had made in the late 1990s with gold at $300.   

I am very grateful that I have been allowed to live long enough to see this all unfold.

Silver lagged a bit, being weighed down by the economy and the equities.

Stocks sagged but held a level.   When they give way they could fall quite a bit, but we'll need to see some trigger event for that.

But is is coming, sooner or later.   And it will be remarkable.

I haven't had a vacation in a very long time.   As you know I have been posting pretty much every day since 2008, through thick and thin.

So I am going to take a little time off now.   Unless some other forecast event in the markets comes to pass, I will probably see you again around Thanksgiving if God wills it.   

I have an abiding concern that some truly unfortunate geopolitical event is going to take the markets down, and perhaps some people and significant organizations, even nations, down with them. 

There have been a lot of very ugly things that we've seen over the past 70 years or so.  The Vietnam war and the political assassinations and lies that paved the way for it were awful to live through.  The Cold War was a little frightening for a child.  The Civil Rights struggle was both thrilling and discouraging in its hope and brutality.

But the shameless rise of lawlessness and cruelty among our leaders, with their complicity in the horrific war crimes of proxy wars and the sadistic genocide in Gaza, has just about broken my heart. 

So let's remember to pray, and heed the storm warnings as they develop, and be mindful of the wickedness of those who lie and deceive people in order to ensnare their souls.  

And they are certainly out there and on the prowl, even now.  

'What can get us through such snares?'   And then I heard a voice saying to me — 'humility.'

See you then.

Have a pleasant evening. 

 

"Fear not, little flock, for your Father delights to welcome you into His Kingdom." Luke 12:32

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Madness of the Pharisees

 

Just then a scholar of the law stood up to test Jesus. ‘Teacher,’ he said, ‘what must I do to inherit eternal life?’ And Jesus said to him, ‘What is written in the law? What do you read there?’ And the scholar answered, ‘You shall love the Lord your God with all your heart, and with all your soul, and with all your strength, and with all your mind; and your neighbour as yourself.’ And Jesus said to him, ‘You have given the right answer; do this, and you will live.’ But wanting to justify himself, the scholar asked Jesus, ‘And who then is my neighbour?’

"As you know, this passage above is the introduction to one of the greatest and most memorable of the parables from our Lord's own lips, the story of The Good Samaritan. Our Lord did not offer us an exemption from sin if we call on His name, but forgiveness, if that request is offered in true repentance, a recognition of our faults, and faith, and an active response to His command to 'go and sin no more.'

It might be better to have been born without any knowledge of His word and His commandments, than to hear His words and then hypocritically parade in them and His sacraments, with intricate invocations of His holy name on your lips, as a call to hatefulness, pride, division, self-justification, and oppression.

I am speaking now, more directly, to those who embrace hatred and spread thoughts of violence and repression, often in the name of God, giving scandal to His faithful on earth.

I am speaking to those who stoke the fires of hatefulness, and violent words, gossip and name calling, insults and hardness towards their brothers and sisters in this world, while cynically asking, Who is my neighbor? Surely not them.

We are a generation made drunk with power, and a perverse individualism that has been foretold for increasingly dark times. Examine your own actions and thoughts and behaviors first. For you will not be called upon to answer for what others do, but what you have done.

May God have mercy on any who provide provocation and false teachings to others, and scandalous examples to their brothers and sisters, children and grandchildren, especially because of their willful selfishness, stubborn greed, and foolish pride. And you know who you are, if you are not already completely dead to the life of the Spirit."

Jesse, To a Power Drunk Generation, 19 January 2015

"You belong to your father, the devil, and you want to carry out your father’s desires. He was a murderer from the beginning, and does not abide by the truth, for there is no truth in him. When he lies he speaks from his own nature, for he is a liar and the father of lies."

John 8:44

"In the Incarnation the whole human race recovers the dignity of the image of God. Thereafter any attack, even on the least of men, is an attack on Christ, who took on the form of man, and in his own Person restored the image of God in all. Through our relationship with the Incarnation, we recover our true humanity, and at the same time are delivered from that perverse individualism which is the consequence of sin, and recover our solidarity with all mankind."

Dietrich Bonhoeffer, The Cost of Discipleship, 1937

Gold was powering higher overnight, and as the market closed for the day was around 3986, within striking distance of $4000.

Silver also moved higher, grabbing the $48 handle.

Bitcoin is hitting new highs.  

Stocks were meandering around until the last hours of the day when to rallied closing higher.

This is a bubble.  It is badly mispricing risk and is overvalued.  It may get even more overvalued.

When the bust comes it may turn into a liquidation event, and most everything will be sold.

But until then, we will party on, and certain ruling elites will claim validation for their actions in the risk markets.  

I have been watching some interesting analysis that suggests that Charlie Kirk was not killed by a high powered hunting rifle from a distance, but the actual shot that hit his neck was fired by a lower velocity air powered pistol from closer by and a different direction.   

And it makes some sense on a number of levels, especially given the type of damage done and the wound.

But who ever heard of a political assassination being done and covered up while being pinned on a patsy. 

These will be increasingly difficult times.

The madness and hypocrisy, the lies and lawlessness of the Pharisees are spreading like a contagion.

What matters is that you do not become swept up in this, and find yourself passionately drawn into the abyss of madness that is going to claim these who have fallen away.

And that is what matters above all to you, your soul.   For if that is lost, nothing else matters. 

Have a pleasant evening. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - A Never-Ending Stream of Crises

 

"The problem of the last three decades is not the 'vicissitudes of the marketplace,' but rather deliberate actions by the government to redistribute income from the rest of us to the one percent."

Dean Baker, The Market Would Be a Big Improvement, 29 September 2014

"As the boom developed, the big men became more and more omnipotent in the popular or at least the speculative view.  The big men decided to put the market up, and even some serious scholars have been inclined to think that a concerted move catalyzed this upsurge."

John K. Galbraith, The Great Crash of 1929, 1955

"Fascism begins the moment a ruling class, fearing the people may use their political democracy to gain economic democracy, begins to destroy political democracy in order to retain its power of exploitation and special privilege."

Thomas Clement Douglas, quoted in How the Liberals Abandoned the Just Society, 1995

"We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men. It is not merely that at present the rule of naked force obtains almost everywhere. Bully-worship has become a universal religion."

George Orwell, Review of Bertrand Russell's Power, 1939

"Through its monopoly over the media, the ruling oligarchy can repeatedly blame all its failures on others, and divert attention to external threats – either real or imaginary. When you live under such an oligarchy, there is always some crisis or other that takes priority over boring stuff such as healthcare and pollution.

If the nation is facing external invasion or diabolical subversion, who has time to worry about overcrowded hospitals and polluted rivers?  By manufacturing a never-ending stream of crises, a corrupt oligarchy can prolong its rule indefinitely.”

Yuval Noah Harari, 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, 2018

This may be the calm before the storm.

Gold punched higher, setting a new closing high.  It is now within striking distance  of 4000, which has been my long term target for a number of years.

Although this is unfolding in almost exactly the way I had anticipated, some years ago, it is still surprising and gratifying to see it.

The same thing can be said for silver, which is similarly in striking distance of 50.

On the other hand, stocks are making blow off bubble tops sustained by the egoism of he-who-must-not-be-named.

But when the trigger event comes along, and there are a number of increasingly likely candidates, this bubbled up bloatfest of mispriced risk is going to deflate like styrofoam in a roaring furnace of reality.

As Orwell noted for his time in the 1930, bully-worship is a near universal religion, as force is admired as an end.   

But now and it did then, the bullies can only overreach so far, and stumble.  And then they fall into a spinning maelstrom of blowback that leaves them nearly unrecognizable. 

The most important thing is to guard yourself, your soul, in all this madness.  Because that is what the struggle is all about.

Have a pleasant weekend.