Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Restating the Obvious

 

"We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men.   It is not merely that at present the rule of naked force obtains almost everywhere.  Bully-worship has become a universal religion."

George Orwell, Review of Bertrand Russell's Power, 1939

"Perpetual war is always so planned as to eat up any surplus that might exist after meeting the bare needs of the population. It is a deliberate policy to keep even the favoured groups somewhere near the brink of hardship, because a general state of scarcity increases the importance of small privileges and thus magnifies the distinction between one group and another.

The essence of oligarchical rule is not father-to-son inheritance, but the persistence of a certain world-view and a certain way of life.  A ruling group is a ruling group so long as it can nominate its successors.  Who wields power is not important, provided that the hierarchical structure remains always the same.”

George Orwell, 1984, June 8, 1949

"All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome."

George Orwell, Politics and the English Language, 1946


I'm still on vacation but I am closely watching a number of markets to see if we are reaching some sort of turning, or a crescendo of this mad mispricing of risk.

As you may recall some time ago I had suggested a higher than usual probability of a severe market correction by the end of October, and then shortly afterwards changed it to the end of November.

The reason for this is the fairly obvious and very determined actions of Bessent and his cronies to prop the markets up, for their own profits and at the behest of Trump, who views it as an emblem of his success.

A number of 'very important people' have jumped on the bandwagon since that time.  And with good reason.  The elements of a debacle in the financial markets are apparent to all the major players.  

But, let's see how long Donnie and his crime family can string this one out.

At this point it is only one event away, and there are a number of candidates to choose from.

Lawlessness is very much in fashion, nourished by the lack of even reasonable consequences.

"Robbery, rape, and murder they call empire — and where they make a desert, they call it peace."
 Tacitus, Agricola, circa 98 AD

Have a pleasant evening. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Consecration of Lawlessness

 

"The wealth of another region excites their greed; and if it is weak, their lust for power as well.  Nothing from the rising to the setting of the sun is enough for them.  Among all others only they are compelled to attack the poor as well as the rich.  Robbery, rape, and slaughter they falsely call empire; and where they make a desert, they call it peace."

Tacitus, Agricola, circa 98 AD

"The Press of the United States? Its function is to serve the established by moulding public opinion, and right well it serves it. I know nothing that I may say can influence you. You have no souls to be influenced. You are spineless, flaccid things. You pompously call yourselves Republicans and Democrats. There is no Republican Party. There is no Democratic Party. You are lick-spittles and panderers, the creatures of the Plutocracy.”

Jack London, The Iron Heel, 1907

"Treason doth never prosper: what’s the reason?
Why, if it prosper, none dare call it treason."

John Harrington, Epigrams: Of Treason, 1618

"These were some of James Jesus Angleton’s dying words.  He had not been serving God, after all, when he followed Allen Dulles.  He had been on a satanic quest:

'I did things that, in looking back on my life, I regret.  But I was part of it and loved being in it.'  He invoked the names of the high eminences who had run the CIA in his day—Dulles, Helms, Wisner.  These men were 'the grand masters,' he said.  'If you were in a room with them, you were in a room full of people that you had to believe would deservedly end up in hell.'  Angleton took another slow sip from his steaming cup. 'I guess I will see them there soon.'

David Talbot, The Devil's Chessboard, 2015

"The coming of the lawless will be the work of Satan made manifest in all power and false signs and wonders, and in every wicked deception for those who are perishing because they refused to accept the love of the truth to be saved.  For this reason, God allows them to have a powerful delusion to believe their own lies, that all those who deny the truth and instead take pleasure in lawlessness will be condemned."

2 Thessalonians 2:7-12

“Religion used to be the opium of the people.  To those suffering humiliation, pain, illness, and serfdom, religion promised the reward of an after life.  But now, we are witnessing a transformation: a true opium of the people is the belief in nothingness after death, the huge solace, the huge comfort of thinking that for our betrayals, our greed, our cowardice, our murders, we are not going to be judged.”

Czeslaw Milosz, Discreet Charm of Nihilism, NYRB November 19, 1998

It was a decline to cover those gaps in the equity charts, with risk coming off the table.

Gold and silver were sold lower.

The Dollar took back the 100 handle.

VIX came in higher, but declined into the close.

This seems more like a correction and profit-taking, moreso than some other significant event.

But as I remind, we are one trigger event away from a meltdown.

Dick Cheney, practitioner of deceit and war crimes, has passed onto judgement. 

As shall they all. 

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Trump Has Pardons and Tanks

 

"American political corruption was the buying up of legislatures and assemblies to keep them from doing the people's will and protecting the people's interests; it was the exploiter entrenching himself in power, it was financial autocracy undermining and destroying political democracy.

By the blindness and greed of ruling classes the people have been plunged into infinite misery ; but that misery has its purpose in the scheme of nature.  Something more than a century ago we saw the people driven by just such misery to grope their way into a new order of society; they threw off the chains of hereditary monarchy, and made themselves citizens of free republics."

Upton Sinclair, The Brass Check, 1919

"They have ignored the
     the injuries to my people.
'Peace, peace!' they say,
     though there is no peace.
They have acted shamefully, committing abominations,
     yet they are not at all ashamed,
     they do not know how to blush.
Therefore they will fall among the fallen;
     in the time of their judgement they shall stumble,
     says the Lord."

Jeremiah 6:14-15

“It was not curiosity that killed the goose who laid the golden egg, but an insatiable greed that devoured common sense.”

E.A. Bucchianeri, Brushstrokes of a Gadfly

"ICE goes masked for a single reason — to terrorize Americans into quiescence.  To us, masks are associated with cowardly desperadoes and the despised Ku Klux Klan.  In all our history we have never tolerated an armed masked secret police." 

At the very top of the opinion, before even listing the parties involved in the case, Young included a copy of an anonymous handwritten postcard his chambers recently received.  'Trump has pardons and tanks, what do you have?'  the postcard read.   In reply, Young stated,  'Alone, I have nothing but my sense of duty.  Together, We the People of the United States — you and me — have our magnificent Constitution.'”

U.S. District Judge Bill Young, AAUP v. Rubio, Noem, et al., September 30, 2025

"When I despair, I remember that all through history the way of truth and love has always won. There have been tyrants and murderers and for a time they seem invincible, but in the end, they always fall— think of it, always.”

Mohandas K. Ghandi


The first chart shows the divergence between American Jobs and the SP 500.

I believe that the market is being propped up for the usual reasons that government officials want to make things look better than they are.  

It is also a convenient way for the moneyed interests to continue looting the public trust, slowly but surely.

What is unsustainable will not be sustained.  And the current course of the US financial system is unsustainable.

Fraud and the abuse of power can continue on for a long time, often longer than we would imagine. 

But do not be deceived, for God is not mocked.  What a man sows, so shall he reap. 

And sooner or later there will be consequences and judgement. 

Always.  Think of it — always.

Have a pleasant evening. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Deceiving, and Being Deceived

 

"Many will become addicted to hateful and malicious thoughts and hateful words.  Slaves to their desires, they will be ferocious, angry despisers of what is good and right.  With brutal treachery they will act without restraint, bigoted and blinded by clouds of conceit.  They will demand and find their delight in the pleasures of this world, and ignore their need to serve God.  They may act religious, but they want to serve themselves."

2 Timothy 3:1-5

"Long ago I broke the yoke that oppressed you
     and tore away the chains of your slavery,
but still you said,
     ‘I will not serve.’
On every hill and under every green tree,
     you have become corrupt, bowing down to idols."

Jeremiah 2:20

"Narcissists are unstable and go through repeated cycles of self-destruction, with other people usually paying the heft of the price.  They are aware of what they are doing to others — but they do not care.  Narcissists tend to be divisive, vindictive, confrontational, aggressive, hate-filled, raging, incoherent, judgment-impaired, and irrational."

Sam Vaknin, Malignant Self-Love, 2003

"I see dead people. Walking around like regular people. They don't see each other. They only see what they want to see. They don't know that they're dead."

Cole Sear: The Sixth Sense

"The most urgent problem facing the US and the Western nations is the pernicious corruption in the financial system that has captured the politicians of both parties. This corruption distorts the public conversation by buying influence in the media and 'experts' through the power of big money.  The people are held hostage in a Bastille of deceit.  What a condemnation it is that so few love the truth, and willfully turn from it, being led by the lies that favor their particular flavor of greed, and rotten self-interest."

Jesse, A Bastille of Deceit, 21 November 2012

"In the last days perilous times shall come.  For men shall be lovers of their own selves, covetous, boasters, traitors, heady, high-minded having a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof.  Evil men and seducers shall wax worse and worse, deceiving and being deceived."

John Henry Newman, Parochial and Plain Sermons II 20, 1836

"If you want to be important—wonderful.  If you want to be recognized—wonderful.  If you want to be great—wonderful.  But recognize that he who is greatest among you shall be your servant.  That's a new definition of greatness.  And this morning, the thing that I like about it: by giving that definition of greatness, it means that everybody can be great, because everybody can serve."

Martin Luther King, The Drum Major Instinct, February 4, 1968


The markets tried to shrug off the growing risks of war in multiple locations around the world, although equities were off a bit from their new all time highs.

 VIX ticked up a bit, but still remains subdued.   Until it is not.

The Dollar continued to gain some strength after Chairman Powell and the FOMC seemed to waffle about future rate cuts.

The US government remains closed by an intractable GOP in Congress and the Executive.

Gold and silver were under pressure most of the day.  It's a 'denial of risks for the exceptional' thing.

Trump is acting in a rather erratic, and some would say bizarre, manner.  I don't think this is as much of a departure from his past performance as some of his apologists may offer. 

It's important to remember how strongly his priorities are centered around what he most wants at the moment.  

He is intellectually lazy to a fault, and intolerant of any information that does not suit his preconceived notions which are remarkably uninformed.  He makes things up as naturally as the average person breathes, and his sycophants imitate him.

His respect for the Constitution and the rule of law is almost nil.  And he appeals to others with the same sort of limited perspective.

A recipe for disaster to be sure.  And that's what makes it significant for us as investors.  Ignore it if you wish, but at some point Cloud Cuckoo-land is going to come crashing down with severe real world consequences for the people are just trying to get by and make a living.

But a significant portion of the American public is caught up in their rebellious fit, and seems determined to bring a wreckage of devices to fruition.  This is what motivates a defiance of a reality they reject, preferring to substitute their own.

There is plenty of blame to go around on both sides of the aisle.  Make no mistake.  But the impulse to reform is being strangled in a fog of engineered distractions and adversarial deceits. 

For a 250 year old, America has been acting like a petulant brat, for some time. 

Have a pleasant weekend.