Dude, Where's My Recovery?

Happily we see that Anthony Sanders has found a new vehicle for his highly informative column, Confounded Interest, in case you wish to bookmark it.

The failure of the Fed and the regulators and the Solons of government is not terribly complex. What else would one expect if you address the symptoms badly, and do little or nothing to fix the very crux of the problem?

John Kenneth Galbraith said it quite succinctly some years ago. “Trickle-down theory - the less than elegant metaphor that if one feeds the horse enough oats, some will pass through to the road for the sparrows.”

It is like sending billions in aid to a corrupt, Third World nation, where little of what is sent actually makes it to the people for whom it is intended.

It is not the stimulus or the principle behind it that is discredited.  What we have had is not the kind of stimulus designed to kick start aggregate demand. It has been the sustaining of the status quo, the continuation of a major policy error and widespread financial fraud, resulting in an asset bubble collapse and ongoing financial malaise.

It is the failure to reform, and to target aggregate growth and the well being of the public, which sadly takes last place on the agenda of those who have been blinded and corrupted by the greed and the power of Big Money.

And as we can see in this current presidential election, it is badly straining the social fabric of the Republic, and threatens to tear it apart.  With regard to the history of temptations of the ages, this is a story that is 'as old as Babylon, and evil as hell.'

US Labor Market Still Weak After Trillions In Stimulus
By Anthony Sanders

As I pointed out on Friday, the US jobs market had a fine print in terms of quantity of jobs added, not quality. 80% of jobs added were of the low-wage variety.

And two employment indicators show that the US economy is back … to the worst levels prior to 2008. Both U-6 underemployment (total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force) and the employment-to-population ratio still remain grim.

Despite the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus (ZIRP and QE 1-3) thrown at the employment problem.

M2 Money Velocity keeps falling along with real median household income (both lower than in 2007).

While we got stagnant wages and almost 10% U-6 underemployment, we did get big increases in asset prices (house prices and stock market prices).

Industrial production (YoY) and total business sales (YoY) are in negative territory.

The purchasing power for consumers has decreased dramatically since the creation of The Federal Reserve System in 1913 under President Woodrow Wilson. But at least the volatility of industrial production declined. /sarc

At last bank credit growth is back at about 7.5% YoY. Mortgage credit growth (net) has barely broken into positive territory.

So after the $831 billion in fiscal stimulus in 2009 and the trillions in Fed monetary stimulus, dude, where’s my recovery?

Performance of Certain Assets Year To Date

"Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted."

Alan Greenspan, May 20, 1999


"Gold has worked down from Alexander's time. When something holds good for two thousand years I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory."

Bernard Baruch


"The commerce and industry of the country, however, it must be acknowledged, though they may be somewhat augmented [by paper money], cannot be altogether so secure, when they are thus, as it were, suspended upon the Daedalian wings of paper money, as when they travel about upon the solid ground of gold and silver."

Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations, p. 262

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - They Just Could Not Resist

Gold and silver were higher most of the day, with gold selling off a little after the markets closed in Europe and Asia.  The wiseguys just could not resist taking it back down into the close.  lol.

The handle on the potential cup and handle formation is not firmly set yet as gold failed to close over 1270, coupled with the initial weak retest of lower support in the early handle stages. Normally we would like to see a little arc, an interplay of buying and selling. This time it went straight down and then rallied steadily higher. It risks turning into more of an ascending wedge.

The bright side was that silver refused to give up most of its gains.

Speaking of 'they just could not resist,' here comes the Housing Bubble Part Deux and the return of 'interest only' mortgages.

So much for Dodd-Frank, financial reform, and the integrity of the financial regulators.

I have to leave for an appointment now and will not be back until much later, so I will see you again Sunday evening.

Remember to care for the poor, the unfortunate, and all the creatures of His creation, as you would like someone to care for you and yours, whether they be 'deserving' or not, for His sake.   This is the whole of the commandments and the law, the vitality of hope and faith, and above all love, which is the key to true life.

All the ceremony, the elaborate ritual and trappings, the worldly learning, the impressive rhetoric, the great shows and splendor, the zealous judgement and anger at the differences of others, will not sustain us for an instance, as they all will pass away in His kingdom, and are already as just the appearances but not the substance of faith.

Only love abides, and bring vitality to the seeds of faith. And to offend against love is to offend against the Spirit.

As we understand this, we aspire to wisdom, and the fundamental principles of His economy.

Have a pleasant weekend.

“We who used to value the acquisition of wealth and possessions more than anything else now bring what we have into a common fund and share it with anyone who needs it. We used to hate and destroy one another, and refused to associate with people of another race or country. Now, because of Christ, we live together with such people and pray for our enemies.”

Justin, Martyr, 140 AD

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Marking Time, Treading Water

Stocks were mixed to a little higher today as the 'better than expected' headline number of jobs added in the Non-Farm Payrolls Report failed to impress the markets.

The numbers reinforce the trend of adding lots of low-paying and part time unskilled jobs that will do little to nothing to stimulate and sustain aggregate demand and economic recovery.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - The Moderns' Bête Noire

"There is no clean way to make a hundred million bucks. Somewhere along the line guys got pushed to the wall, nice little businesses got the ground cut out from under them. Decent people lost their jobs. Big money is big power, and big power gets used wrong. It's the system...

The tragedy of life, Howard, is not that the beautiful die young, but that they grow old and mean."

Raymond Chandler, The Long Goodbye


"The very banality and innocence of the first act only allowed the blow to fall afterwards with more awful effect.”

Robert W. Chambers, The King In Yellow

The US dollar took a trip downtown today, and silver and gold were on the move higher still.

Tomorrow we will get the Non-Farm Payrolls report, classified 813 in the Dewey Decimal system, 'Modern American Fiction.'

The Fed is looking for cover to raise rates, because they need some room beneath their wings so that they can maneuver deftly when the next financial crisis follows their latest financial asset bubble, as night follows day.

Negative interest is the policy choice of brain dead bureaucrats, in much the same way that fiscal austerity in a balance sheet recession sounds appealing if you are at least several steps removed from any serious approximation of reality. That does not mean that the Fed would not follow the ECB and go there under the duress of tarnishing their reputations, such as they are. The problem is that the American people are far too heavily armed to tolerate that sort of blatant confiscation, without quite a bit more preparation.

Gold is at a very key juncture.   It needs to break out through 1270 and stick a weekly close there, hard, and hang on to it.   The 'handle' has formed oddly, with hardly the kind of test of the lower bound of the chart formation support that we would like to see under our belts by now.  A second drop down to the 1200 level that held would have much more conventional.

But we *might* be in a bit of a special situation now, bullion-wise, with the float of gold having dried up badly in London and New York, as the seemingly inexhaustible buyers of Asia are spending their paper dolleros on hard goods, rather than cheap consumables.  They clearly are not following the globalist script.

Ray Dalio was talking up gold among other things on Bloomberg bubble vision today, prescribing the usual 5 to 10% allocation for it in your portfolio.

I do not think we will reach the denouement for this until June, if ever, but the data wrangler from the barrier reef was estimating right about now when we were discussing this last year.  So let's keep an open mind and let the market tell us what it knows, and the things that we may not be able to see from our place in the cheaper seats.

It does not look like there are many good choices, much less heroes, in our future.  But history has a way of surprising us when we least expect it. And that is not always a good thing.

The little waif from the mean streets of the city is doing well in our household, starting to lighten up a bit, relax, and fit in. She is a snuggler for sure, and a little treasure.  It feels good to do good for the less unfortunate. It is the kind of reward that does not break or tarnish; it endures.

I think it has to do with love, simple unselfish love. It has always surprised me that more people don't get that, don't get on board with it. Perhaps they are not equipped for it. It takes a human being to love and to be loved in return.

Perhaps there are few seeds that could thrive in such hard, dry ground as some peoples' hearts. It is easy to be hard; all the finest and most powerful seem to be doing it. They live life large, in order to make up for the lack of true vitality, just the imitation of life. But as Dostoevsky said, 'hell is the suffering of being unable to love.'

That is too bad, because the best, the most enduring parts of life are easily overlooked and missed. A baby's laugh, the surprised smile of a spouse, unexpected help, a houseful of grandchildren, a kind word, a good night's sleep, the satisfaction of a job well done:  God's tender mercies.

So let's see what happens.

Have a pleasant evening.