Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Coiling

Non Farm Payrolls tomorrow.

Gold and silver popped today as the Short Yen-Long Dollar carry trade unwound, and traders sold Dollars and bought Yen.

I include the West Texas Intermediate Crude chart below. As you can see it is tightening into a trading range I like to call a 'coiling pattern.'

Watch for a break out in either direction.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Yen Carry Trade Dipsy Doodle

There was some significant technical action today as currency traders bought yen and sold the dollar in an unwinding of the big Dollar-Yen carry trade.

This sent stocks reeling to the lows around their 50 Day Moving Average, but they bounded back to gain ground again into the close and went out near the highs.

Tomorrow is Non-Farm Payrolls. That will set the tone into the weekend.

Bad is good, good is bad, and in-line is a tossup, but watch the revisions for the prior two months.

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Coiling Ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls

They generally like to hit the metals on a Non-Farm Payrolls day.

Let's see if that pattern repeats. Stocks will likely move inversely to the report beyond some middle ground.

A great jobs report and stocks will likely falter some on fears of QE weakening. A weak report and stocks will likely rally back up into the trend channel on the QE gravy train express.

An in-line report and the market is up for grabs, which usually means higher these days. Expectations are for 160,000 net jobs added, with 175,000 coming from the private sector. Watch the revisions of the prior two months. They like to spin it there with upward revisions that take the edge off any misses in the headline.

Gold may not move inversely to stocks as it has been doing again recently.

I don't think the precious metals market will return to fundamentals until the paper gold/silver scheme falters.  Even a spike rally now is likely a cynical move to free up bullion for the short term so that the next wash and rinse cycle of manipulation can begin again without forcing the Comex into a default.

 

Ralph Nader On the Fed's Gamble, Failed Two Party System, Corporate Power

It would interesting to see some strong third party efforts emerge with progressive agendas.

We know that the Republicans are owned by the monied interests, and that Clinton-Obama leased out the Democrats to them.

The two parties may as well change their names to Big Oil/Defense versus Big Finance, with their only common ground being the ascent of the corporatocracy: all the rights of the individual, few of the restraints and obligations.

Simon Johnson: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown

Is the crisis over? No

Have we fixed the underlying problems? No

This video is from 2011. The answers remain the same.

TBTF is a government subsidy, a cartel, and a distorting factor on markets.

This is not about economics or the analytics anymore. This is about politics, this is about power, this is about the money.

Simon Johnson is one of the few economists that are making any real sense of what happened, and what therefore is likely to happen next.   I find his thoughts quite persuasive, at least on this particular topic of the roots of the crisis and the nature of the likely solutions with regard to bank regulation.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Tilt

There is an intraday commentary here that is essential to understanding how I view the current gold and silver markets.

At least for my own purposes I have pretty much made up my mind what is going on.  I summarize it in some detail in that commentary linked above. 

The world is sorting out the global currency regime, but money crosses many lines including those of political power and the distribution and creation of wealth.

For the short term, expect the unexpected. These markets are tilted.  Most if not all of them.  Those who have benefited enormously from the status quo are resisting change will all their might.  They fear the revelations of their duplicity as well as the removal of their sinecures.

There are big changes underway, enormous changes that will impact the world and be talked about and discussed for the next few hundred years.

So do not be disappointed if you do not quite understand them.  Most of the people confidently speaking about them do not understand them either.  Or in all too many cases, they understand what is happening, but their paychecks depend on their saying something else.  And quite a few are blinded by greed, fear, and a false sense of who they really are.

More people are starting to understand than the media lets on.  US Bullion Coin Sales at 'Unprecedented Levels'

The really big things in life are never understood well, except at a distance.  Trust breaks over a long period of time, but confidence collapses quickly.