Non-Farm Payrolls Report - Dodgy Seasonality In Search of Goldilocks

Today's Non-Farm Payrolls report was interesting because with the revision to last month we have two months of almost exactly 195,000 jobs added, with 199,000 in the month prior to that.

This is remarkable 'regularity' for three months in hitting what might be termed a 'goldilocks' number: not too hot, not too cold.

There was something that jumped out of the numbers.  The seasonality adjustment deviated enough from the past two June actual adjustments to add 75,000 jobs to the headline number.

As you may recall, at this time of the year, the jobs growth is on the high side in the non-adjusted number because of the huge amount of summer jobs that are added, whether they be in the form of working students or construction work, or the favorite, leisure and hospitality sector for a nation where an increasing number of people will be 'in service.'

A low side factor in adjusting those high numbers in seasonality will result in a much higher 'headline number,' and it does not take all that much since the raw numbers are in the millions and the headline number is in the thousands.

As you may recall I do not sweat the small deviations in the statistics, because that is in the nature of the beast, and averages are simply averages.

But it does appear with this latest rather large deviation that the headline numbers are being 'managed' to some extent.  How much is hard to say because there are certainly a number of variables in deciding what seasonality factor is to be used.  But it smells like the pursuit of a goldilocks result.

This does reinforce my more consistent message that it is the trend that is important, and not the numbers du jour, that are of primary benefit to those who use them to shove prices around in the financial markets. 

And rather than just count the number of jobs of any quality or type, it is probably more useful to look at the median wage.  

There will be no sustainable recovery until most people have jobs that pay a livable wage, and are not subject to the fees and hidden 'bite' of a corrupt financial system and a corporatized healthcare system.
 

h/t ZH

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Light Holiday Technical Trade

Gold and silver traded in very light holiday trade as most US markets closed early for the national holiday. Comex electronic trading keeps regular hours as I recall, but in very light volume. The adults have all gone to their holiday homes.

The mouthpieces for the hedge funds and bank trading desks are out and about, so we *might* get another gut check test in the metals as they overstay their piggish shorts. Non-Farm payrolls is on Friday.

Keep in mind that there are campaigns of distortion involving the talking heads and puffed up pundits that are a sad but very present part of a corrupted market and price manipulation. They have no shame.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

The US markets closed early in a light holiday trade that was largely technical.

I think if the financiers could see their future they would wish that the mountains would fall on them now to hide their shame.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

The rhetoric is getting a bit thick.

Talk is cheap. Stand and deliver.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

Quiet trading with a slight upward drift as expected.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday

Intraday commentary on the precious metals market is here.

As a reminder this is a holiday week in the US as the markets will be closed on Thursday, July 4 for Independence Day.

And a Happy Canada Day for my many friends and acquaintances in that most decent and honorable of countries. 

I remember,  about twenty years ago, landing in Ottawa. As I came up to passport control, I handed over my paper driver's license with no picture.

"Have you no passport? Is this how you come into a foreign country?" the official asked, holding up my piece of paper with an obvious disdain. "Yes sir I do, and I am very sorry for this. But I did not think to bring it, because since my earliest days growing up not all that far from the Niagara border, I have always considered Canada like a second home."

And with an incredulous laugh at my cheek, and a sweeping wave of his hand, he let me through. That would probably not work so well these days, but this is a true story.

For years when we crossed the border at Niagara we only had to state where we were born and were waved through. I had never once thought of Canada as a foreign land. My wife and I have spent many happy days on vacation and on business in Toronto, Niagara, Montreal, Ottawa, and Québec City.   I have been to Vancouver several times, but never on holiday. Alas, those days are no more.

I think we can expect some interesting things in the precious metals this week.

Typically the more senior people on Wall Street will leave on Tuesday evening for their holiday in the Hamptons.

So trading will be light. Interestingly enough a fairly important Jobs Report is due on Friday morning, and they do not seem to be delaying this until next week. Expected is +175,000 jobs.  As you may recall the financiers like to raid the metals on a Non-Farm Payrolls day.

Tomorrow is 'rally day' on the equity exchange so let's see if the bulls can pull themselves together for one last market operation before their begin their festivities.

I do not think most realize the shocking nature of this excessive move downward in gold and silver.

The manipulation in the paper markets is there for all to see. I cannot help but laugh quietly every time I hear the Lord Haw Haws and the spokesmodels on the financial networks talking about how gold and silver have fallen into disfavor, and how low the volume of physical purchasing has been. They desire what they do not have!

One can keep doubling down on a bluff for too long, and eventually they will be called, and their cards must be shown.

Nothing is more clear to me that the paper gold and silver that has been shorted cannot possibly be covered. It has gone entirely too far. And further price declines to free up bullion from the ETFs, as I have pointed out, is very counter-productive because it is now just stimulating more physical buying in size.

We are entering a new phase of the currency wars, and the metals bears and financiers are worried, despite their bluff and bravado. Their arrogance is so typical as they reach the end of their game.

Yes they are still dangerous in the short term, but they must feel the fear creeping up their spines.  One after another their control frauds and schemes are being exposed.  Their perfidy is there for all to see.

They have been weighed, and are found wanting.