Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Excelsior

"He who sells what isn't his'n
Must buy it back, or go to prison."

Daniel Drew

Another up day for the metals, with silver once again leading the charge.

There was an early morning 'dipsy-doodle' just to keep the day traders from banging their F12 buttons too steadily.

Now it gets really interesting with the first level of resistance cleared, and the tougher resistance that marks a serious breakout level overhead.

That 'slanted W' bottom formation is working overtime now, and is targeting higher price levels.  The action over the next week or so will shape the greater formation and tell us how high is high at least on this leg of the move. 

I am loosely forecasting gold to hit $2500 over the next 12 months, but that depends on such large exogenous variables that the forecast is highly tentative for now.   

If and when gold cracks that old support from its range traded days will show us how far it can go on this leg of the bull.  I would not like to see it happen too quickly, and probably won't be disappointed unless 'something happens.'

Silver is getting a little short term overbought, which for silver often means nothing.  Silver is a rocket when it gets going.

Only ten more business days until the end of the August delivery period.   

Have a pleasant weekend.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Let Freedom Wane

"Pride, envy, and avarice are the three sparks that have set these hearts on fire."

Dante Alighieri

A weak day with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment setting the tone.

Next week is a light economic data week, with the release of the latest FOMC minutes on Wednesday as the highlight.

I am looking at the bottom of the trading channel on the SP 500 for support. It may take a little while to get there. Unless that breaks decisively I am not overly concerned. Until then this is just the wash and rinse, monkey business as usual.

If you have not had the opportunity try listening to the Thomas Drake video at the National Press Club. The actual speech is only about 22 minutes long, and the rest of the time is spent answering audience questions, which is also very interesting as well especially considering the audience is largely made up of reporters.

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds

Premiums and the gold/silver ratio are reverting to a more usual situation, but still have some ways to go.

Thomas Drake On Government Overreach, Obsessive Secrecy, and Constitutional Abuses

I was not familiar with this person or his case, but I found his speech to the National Press Club to be interesting, informative, and well articulated.

I recommend that you listen to it. I am a little surprised that he has not received more exposure in the media given the subjects that are being discussed these days. But I am often underinformed about current political affairs that do not involve finance so it could just be my own deficiency and over-concentration in certain areas.

What he reveals starting around minute 49 until almost the end is very eloquent, and quite disturbing.

Thomas Andrews Drake is a former senior executive of the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA), a decorated United States Air Force and United States Navy veteran, and a whistleblower.

In 2010 the government alleged that Drake 'mishandled' documents, one of the few such Espionage Act cases in U.S. history. Drake's defenders claim that he was instead being persecuted for challenging the Trailblazer Project. He is the 2011 recipient of the Ridenhour Prize for Truth-Telling and co-recipient of the Sam Adams Associates for Integrity in Intelligence award.

On June 9, 2011, all 10 original charges against him were dropped. Drake rejected several deals because he refused to "plea bargain with the truth". He eventually pled to one misdemeanor count for exceeding authorized use of a computer.

COMEX Gold Remains At Low Levels - Owners Per Registered Ounce of Gold Tops 50

It will take higher prices to move more of the gold from the eligible to the registered, or deliverable, category during this August delivery month.

With fifty potential owners for every ounce put forward for delivery, the COMEX is quite obviously not a market with purchase and delivery of actual metal as its primary objective. I think this may have been sufficient during the long bear market, but with the increased demand for physical gold, the COMEX begins to look out of place.

It seems almost a relic of a type of market that is falling out of favor with regard to physical things, where people are just playing games, placing bids for things which they have no intention of actually buying, most of which are not really being offered for sale.

What would one call that? An ethereal auction? Or a market that has degenerated into just an odd form of gambling plagued by secrecy, imposition, and fraud?

Weighed, and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.

The above chart on ownership per ounce is from Sharelynx.

 

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Où est la masse de manoeuvre?

Winston Churchill: "Où est la masse de manoeuvre?" (Where are your reserves?)

French General Gamelin: "Aucune!" (None!)

Stocks, Bonds and the Dollar were dropping today, while the metals caught a ferocious bid to the upside just after mid-day with silver leading the charge.

The TIC data came in quite negative this morning show a net long term outflow of 67 billion as both public and private foreigners were dumping US Treasuries in size during June.   When traders see a number like that, their first impulse is to start asking around and checking other data to see if this is a one off, or a trend.  So the reaction is often delayed.

From watching the tape during the day you could almost feel the precious metals coiling, as money was fleeing -- just about everything else.  

And since the metals would just not go down and stay down, the bears gave way and there was a remarkable 'pop' as gold moved almost twenty dollars higher in about a minute.  Money came pouring out of overpriced equities, bonds were no haven, and the dollar was in disfavor.   What are you going to do?

This was an absolutely classic flight to safety into the precious metals that triggered a short squeeze.

Some of the miners took off like scalded cats as the heavy propaganda of the last six months evanesced into the big repository for all official myths, the dustbin of history.

Weighed, and found wanting.

So what next.  The metals need to hold their gains over resistance, and not give way to another efforts from the bears to get the price back down.  I think they will have quite a bit of trouble making that work because physical gold is being held by strong hands, and is in very short supply.

Let's keep an eye on this, and see how far we run and what chart patterns continue to evolve as it appears that the great metal massacre is done.