The Technically Driven Market: Wash and Rinse Cycles In a Trend

Hot money blunts the impact of all but the most extreme events in the real world.

Computer algorithms dominate the trading environments in volume, speed, and short term gamesmanship.  A 'random walk' my ass.

The market becomes an endless churn and burn with an upwards bias supported by the Fed's expansion of the money supply.

The market is notable for the bifurcation into professionals and marks, with the occasional warring factions between the monied interests. 

Wash, churn, rinse, repeat.

This is what I mean by 'the technically driven trade.'  It is a constant game of liar's poker in a largely lawless environment.

The moral hazard is the misallocation of capital, the misappropriation of policy money, the corrosion of the public trust and national character, and the dissipation of wealth in the occasional market breaks and collapses.

China Gold Imports Through Hong Kong

Trend?  Change?  Not possible.

No one is interested in gold.

Nothing to see here. Move along.

Chart by Data Wrangler Nick at Sharelynx.com.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Metals Take Back Their Levels, But Germany Can't Get Their Gold

There was no movement reported in the Comex gold warehouses yesterday.

A few more contracts stood for delivery yesterday bringing the total to 427,000 for the month.

Let's see how those contracts are resolved and what shows up in the warehouse reports.

The junior miners had a bit of a pop today.

We have a potential right shoulder forming up on the gold chart and on the silver chart as well.  In this case follow through is everything as it is not yet a confirmed formation.

The shameless shills and trashtalk trolls keep putting the worst possible interpretation they can find on even positive developments in the metals, while supposedly interjecting 'objectivity' into our expectations.  They are hardly objective and have missed every metals rally since 2000.

And on the other hand the legendary legends of legendarianism keep touting their sky high target valuations for gold and silver. 

I would settle at this point for a solid breakout from this clamp that has been placed on the precious metals for the past fourteen months, ever since the Fed had to de facto default on the return of the German gold as requested, in case you have forgotten. That must have been a real come-to-Jesus moment for the pinstripes and soft lies over elegant luncheons crowd.  

One step at a time.  Let's allow the market to have its say.  Talk is cheap, and at the end of the day performance is everything.  The fundamentals are highly positive, and remain so.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Bounce Off the Trendline

“Whatever you do, kid, never invest a penny in the stock market, because it’s run by crooks and sons of bitches.”

Ralph Madoff, father of Bernie Madoff

Alcoa kicks off earnings season after the bell.

Stocks bounced with some precision off the trendline with the momentum techs taking a bit of a lead.

Have a pleasant evening.

The Hare Psychopathy Checklist

This is from sources on the web, and is based on Robert Hare's psychopathy checklist.

1. Look for glib and superficial charm. A psychopath will also put on what professionals refer to as a 'mask of sanity' that is likable and pleasant.   It is a thin veneer.

2. Look for a grandiose self perception. Psychopaths will often believe they are smarter or more powerful than they actually are.

3. Watch for a constant need for stimulation. Stillness, quiet and reflection are not things embraced by psychopaths. They need constant entertainment and activity.

4. Determine if there is pathological lying. A psychopath will tell all sorts of lies; little white lies as well as huge stories intended to mislead. Psychopaths are gifted or dull, high functioning or low performing like other people. An untalented psychopath may harm a few; a highly talented psychopath may lay waste to nations. The difference between the psychopath and others lies in their organic lack of conscience and empathy for others. The sociopath is trained to lack empathy and conscience. The psychopath is a natural.

5. Evaluate the level of manipulation. All psychopaths are identified as cunning and able to get people to do things they might not normally do. They can use guilt, force and other methods to manipulate.

6. Look for any feelings of guilt. An absence of any guilt or remorse is a sign of psychopathy.  They will often blame the victim.

7. Consider the level of emotional response a person has. Psychopaths demonstrate shallow emotional reactions to deaths, injuries, trauma or other events that would otherwise cause a deeper response. Other people are satisfaction suppliers, nothing more.

8. Look for a lack of empathy. Psychopaths are callous and have no way of relating to others in non-exploitative ways. They may find a temporary kinship with other psychopaths and sociopaths that is strictly utilitarian and goal-oriented.

9. Psychopaths are often parasitic. They live off other people, emotionally, physically, and financially. Their modus operandi is domination and control.  They will claim to be maligned or misunderstood to gain your sympathy.

10. Look for obsessive risk taking and lack of self-control. The Hare Checklist includes three behavior indicators; poor behavior control, sexual promiscuity, and behavioral problems.

11. Psychopaths have unrealistic goals or none at all for the long term. Either there are no goals at all, or they are unattainable and based on the exaggerated sense of one's own accomplishments and abilities.

12. Psychopaths will often be shockingly impulsive or irresponsible. Their shamelessness knows no bounds. You will ask, what were they thinking? And the answer was, they weren't because they did not care.

13. A psychopath will not genuinely accept personal responsibility. A psychopath will never admit to being wrong or owning up to mistakes and errors in judgment, except as part of a manipulative ploy.   They will despise and denigrate their victims once they are done with them.  If they have any regret it is that their source of satisfaction supply has ended and they must seek another.

14. Psychopaths lack long term personal relationships. If there have been many short term marriages, broken friendships, purely transactional relationships, the chances the person is a psychopath increase. Watch especially how they treat other people in weaker positions and even animals. 

15. Psychopaths are often versatile in their criminality. Psychopaths are able to get away with a lot, and while they might sometimes get caught, the ability to be flexible and adaptable when committing crimes is indicative.

If you should find yourself in a business or personal relationship with a psychopath, the best advice is seek counseling if you need, obtain assistance if you must, and run if you can. You are a diffused and multi-faceted person with many interests. A psychopath is powerfully focused on obtaining what he wishes from others, without many prohibitions or distractions. Avoidance is the best policy. Long term confinement is their best treatment.

I do not think the repetitive sociopathic behaviours and psychopathic tendencies of the Roman imperial leadership to be accidental. The mad emperors kept recurring because they were the creatures of what that culture had become, and they stood as emblems at its apex.

Men are social animals, and can go mad in groups, as well as alone. Psychopathy can be the black hole at the center of a whole galaxy of madness and sociopathy under the right conditions, and the results can be flamboyantly destructive, as we most recently saw in several places during the 20th century. 

The psychopaths can thrive anywhere that deception is an advantage, but their prime hunting ground is a system in crisis, a manageable chaos lacking transparency, a well defined rule of law, and effective enforcement of behaviour.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Winning!!

"It is not so much anymore that the public does not trust their brokers. They do not trust the markets, the exchanges, or the regulators either. And why should they, given our showing the past few years?

To the public the financial markets may increasingly seem like a casino, except that the casino is more transparent and simpler to understand...

It is vitally important that we bring an end to this crisis of trust before it spreads any further. That we bring back order, fair dealing, and trust in the marketplace. The financial markets of ... the world's developed countries are at a turning point."

Thomas Peterffy, Founder Interactive Brokers

Technology is not the problem. Not at all. Technology is merely another tool, another means by which a financial system grown corrupt and wildly self-serving and pathologically deceptive can seek its own destruction through unbridled greed.

The US financial system is a disgrace, and the technology is just another instrument of their control frauds.  Thomas Peterffy, like too many others in that system, is too close to see the problem. It is a culture of criminality that keeps defeating those who would save it.  And it is spiraling out of control.

When the next break in confidence comes that cuts to the heart of the monetary system, they will act surprised, just as they did when the financial crisis brought the commercial credit system to the brink.  MF Global was a microcosm of the astonishingly frail nature of their pyramids of wealth.

Gold and silver were under some modest pressure today after the run they had on Friday.

There is still little substantial movement in the warehouses and a daily trickle of those standing for delivery on the April contract.

For those fans amongst us, the season premiere of Game of Thrones was last night, and off cable watchers swarmed the 'HBO TO GO' application bringing it to its knees for a time.

I am also informed by my studious children that George R. R. Martin has 'leaked' a new chapter from the much awaited Book Six for those who arereading the books on his website.

Have a pleasant evening.