Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - El Camino Real

“All that is gold does not glitter,
Not all those who wander are lost;
The old that is strong does not wither,
Deep roots are not reached by the frost.

From the ashes a fire shall be woken,
A light from the shadows shall spring;
Renewed shall be blade that was broken,
The crownless again shall be king.”

J.R.R. Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring

Gold and silver continued to be capped just below 1300 and 20 respectively.

Tomorrow is an option expiration for the May precious metal contracts on the Comex.  As May is not an active month, and the greatest contract activity is already moved to June, we may see an expiration with a twist.

There was no movement in the Comex gold warehouses yesterday.

An additional 51 contracts for April gold stood for delivery, bringing the monthly total to 481,400 ounces.  There has been little visible movement of gold as a result of those warrants changing hands, at least so far.

Someone asked me today how it was that the prices could be 'capped' so effectively given the continuing pressure on physical supply by buyers from Asia.

The paper markets are where the price is set, and they have only tenuous connections to fundamentals like supply and demand for real products, especially because they are oriented to the short term and their own internal systems.

In a genuine global market, Chinese firms would be taking large positions on the Comex, and then standing for and taking delivery of bullion products from there.  And miners would be taking their products there for price discovery.

That is not what is happening in New York these days.   The London and New York markets are dominated by a relatively few but very powerful financial firms, and some very large speculators. 

At some point the paper and physical will have to reacquaint themselves and converge, and I suspect that will be a notable reunion indeed.

Have a pleasant evening.

 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Bonfire of the Inanities

"It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their selfish purposes...

In the full enjoyment of the gifts of Heaven and the fruits of superior industry, economy, and virtue, every man is equally entitled to protection by law; but when the laws undertake to add to these natural and just advantages artificial distinctions, to grant titles, gratuities, and exclusive privileges, to make the rich richer and the potent more powerful, the humble members of society — the farmers, mechanics, and laborers — who have neither the time nor the means of securing like favors to themselves, have a right to complain of the injustice of their government."

Andrew Jackson, Veto of the Second Bank of the United States

AAPL is the big tickle after hours.   That modern Leviathan is increasing its stock buyback program to $90 billion, is raising their dividend to 3.90, and is declaring a 7 for 1 stock split.  As they are saying on Bloomberg, now 'mom and pop' will be able to buy the stock. Huzzah!  Let's party like it is 1999, and let the fat lady start to at least begin to warm up if not actually start to sing.

Meine Damen und Herren, Mesdames et Messieurs Ladies and Gentlemen,  I am afraid that 'mom and pop' are living from hand to mouth, paycheck to paycheck, and can barely afford to buy food, shelter, gasoline, and basic health services.  It is the wealthy few that are acquiring assets with their Fed subsidized paper.  When you see the common people coming, it will not be with stock market orders in their hands. 
 
Here is another joke:

Everyman: Knock knock.

Benanke: Who's there?

Everyman: A living wage, the middle class, and human decency.

Bernanke: Who? What? You're not in our rolodex or our model.

And the real joke is that the Fed has had 'the man in the Street' foremost in mind when they bail out and 'regulate' the Banks.

In twenty years the Federal Reserve, under Greenspan and Bernanke, with their friends and servants in Washington and abroad, have managed to destroy one of the great icons of modern Western civilization, that was forged with sweat and blood in two world wars and the Great Depression: the US middle class.

Have a pleasant evening.

The US financial system appears to have a global image problem.

Bernanke Talks Up the Bankers' Balance Sheet Boogie Woogie - The Truman Sparks Award

Sometimes when I just don't have the words someone more articulate than me on the subject says it all.

Confounded Interest
Bernanke: QE Was For “The Man On The Street”
(Wall Street, That Is!) and Their Electrical Parade
By Anthony B. Sanders

Zero Hedge has an amusing story today based on former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech to the Economic Club of Canada (for a cool $250,000).

*BERNANKE: FED ACTIONS DIDN’T FAVOR WALL STREET OVER MAIN STREET (QE Was For “The Man On The Street”)
* Bernanke Says US Economy Is Heading Towards Complete Recovery

Huh?  The lime colored box shows the rewards of Quantitative Easing to the Man on the Street. In Kingman Kansas, perhaps. Stagnant real household income, employment to population ratio and YoY growth in hourly wage income. And flat-lined mortgage purchase applications.



But for Wall Street, it has been roses, cigars and snifters of cognac.



Of course, retirement funds for workers and investors in the stock market do benefit from The Fed’s quantitative easing. Yet, the jobs market remains stalled while creating low-paying and part-time jobs.

Perhaps Bernanke wants Disney World to rename the Main Street Electrical Parade as the Wall Street Electrical Parade!

Fed policy under Greenspan and Bernanke in two and one half minutes.

Presenting the 'Truman Sparks Award' for Orthogonal Banking Regulation and Obtuse Monetary Policy. - Jesse

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Hotel California

Its funny the way that 476,000 ounces of gold have been 'delivered' so far this month, but the warehouse inventories never seem to go down.

Like the Hotel California, you can check out, but you can never leave.

When I was seconded to the ITU in Genève for many weeks at a time, I used to stay in a smaller hotel on the Rue Gevray that was called the Hotel California. It was very convenient because they had efficiency rooms on the top floor with a small kitchen and a balcony with a nice view of the lake.  And it was not a bad walk up the hill to the old League of Nations building, and an equally pleasant walk over to the restaurant areas.

Alas, they have long been out of business. I heard that for some time they were apartments, and then were taken over by student squatters.    I am just sorry that I never acquired one of their signature bath mats, lol.

It was a typical little European hotel, very friendly.  They held the room if one of the regulars took off on the weekend for a trip into the French countryside, or east into the Schweizer Alpen.  I received a Christmas card every year from them for quite some time. 

I understand why no gold seems to be leaving the Comex warehouses, but it is still kind of funny. The 'claims' are really just warrants, and they are passing them around for shits and giggles for the moment. The Comex is not so much a 'real market' of buyers and sellers who actually produce and use the things that they trade, but more of a game of traders, punters, and banksters. 

The drawdowns we saw over the past year were somewhat unusual, especially along with those of so many of the funds and ETFs. I understand the *possible* alternative explanations, especially those peddled by Shill & Troll. But I think something is up behind the scenes.

So let's see what happens. If I am right, at some point the convergence with reality could be impressive.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Wash Cycle

"People feel like the system is rigged against them, and here is the painful part, they’re right. The system is rigged. Look around. Oil companies guzzle down the billions in profits.

Billionaires pay a lower tax rate than their secretaries, and Wall Street CEOs, the same ones the direct our economy and destroyed millions of jobs still strut around Congress, no shame, demanding favors, and acting like we should thank them. Does anyone here have a problem with that?"

Elizabeth Warren

If you have been short this market recently that most likely has been some pain. 'Never short a dull market.' And especially a dull (low volume) market in which the Fed and their Banks are running rampant with free, hot money.

I think we *might* be nearing the end of the wash cycle, and I could be on the lookout for something on the downside, but not quite yet. There is still some room to go higher and shorting is an advantageous, short term strategy at most times.

Disgraceful really, but they do not care.

Have a pleasant evening.

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds - Crash In a Matter of Months?

In case you were wondering there is a Comex precious metal options expiration on Thursday the 24th.

Since the expiration is for the inactive month of May, I am wondering if they are not going to do an early hit with a head fake on this one as the day comes.

 Hard to forecast.  Typically a noted player will show their hand at some point and the pit crawlers will follow their lead.  They used to walk into the pit, but now I wonder if they just don't print it on the electronic trade, if you know what to look for.

The 'hit' on the metals was pretty much standard operating procedure this morning.

We are clearly in the 'wash' cycle for equities.  Except for the miners which are getting pummeled.  That is a hard trade lately.

Normally I take this sort of thing with a grain of salt, but I have quite a bit of respect for Richard Russell.  He has an interview in which he says that he says 'the dollar will crash in a matter of months.'

"The US will lose its reserve currency advantage within a few years or probably less time. Our defense against a weak economy is always to print more money. In a matter of months, I see the dollar crashing.”

Now the stock market I could understand, and agree with much of what Richard Russell has to say about it and the economy. Although as a traditionalist I would be looking more towards Sept-Oct timeframe, and would have to see a classic 'crash pattern' which has worked well for me in the past.  I have not seen that yet, and if we get close to it, I will start discussing it.   But it is the familiar 'failed rally' two step that I can find in almost every major US stock market crash.

But as for a dollar crash, I am struggling with that one.  It is possible but not likely.  And the obvious questions are why and against what?   Since the dollar is not pegged against anything, it would take a serious event to trigger a 'crash.'

And it takes quite a bit for a major developed currency to fail.  The Fed may not have a literal printing press, but they do have a Balance Sheet and can absorb any amount of debt they wish.   It may not be pretty, and it could weaken the dollar against some commodities and imports, but a crash?  That seems like a real long shot now.  But I am keeping an open mind on it.

As you know I am aware of the major hyperinflationary episodes of the past, and have been following the arguments of those who do and do not think it is possible with a sovereign currency like the US dollar.   And I think you know that my own opinion is that this is highly unlikely, excepting for some major exogenous events, and a colossal policy error or two.  Stagflation seems much more likely to me based on the lack of reforms.

But I thought you might like to be aware of what Richard Russell has to say, and what I think about it at this time.  Legendary legends make all sorts of predictions, and write their hits in marble and their misses in sand.  And I know I cannot forecast the future very often, except at the extremes.  And I am not there yet on any crashes excepting some unforeseen exogenous event which no one can really forecast.