Non-Farm Payrolls Report for October - Birth Death Model to the Rescue

As you may have already heard there was a 'miss' in the new jobs added in the October Non-Farm Payrolls Report.

There were some other troubling aspects in that report that I will discuss in the stock commentary tonight, but I did wish to point out an outlier in the way in which the number was constructed.

As you can see in the first chart below, the number of jobs added in the BLS Birth-Death Model was higher than the usual number we have seen for the past six years. 

This is certainly not the worst outlier.  As you can see, April 2008 was a banner month for imaginary jobs, with which to welcome the new President.

This number is the estimate of how many jobs were added or subtracted by new or small businesses not captured in ordinary reporting.   In my mind, it is such a creature of estimation as to just be a 'plug.'

In the second chart I show the 'headline number' of jobs added with the seasonalized number of imaginary jobs from the Birth Death model subtracted out.

As a reminder, the month to month variations in the headline number are of primary interest to politicians and the stock markets, and will likely be changed and revised quite a bit in the future, when no one seems to care. A more meaningful number is the twelve month moving average. But that gives less opportunity to game stocks and grab headlines.

And as an aside, the headline unemployment rate, which continued 'to improve' is a disgraceful indicator that ought to be ashamed to go out in public, as it so grossly misstates the underlying economic reality of things.  It is like the Dow Jones Industrial Average of economic indicators.  They both throw out all that they define as 'losers' to make their numbers look better.

It does add some volatility which is why I think that the Birth-Death estimate is just a plug created by the BLS statisticians.

And in this report, it appears they were very generous in assuming the number of jobs that were added.  I wonder how they justify this?

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Pity the Swiss

"England may as well dam up the waters of the Nile with bulrushes as to fetter the step of Freedom, more proud and firm in this youthful land than where she treads the sequestered glens of Scotland, or couches herself among the magnificent mountains of Switzerland."

Lydia Maria Child, The Rebels, or Boston before the Revolution

Pity the poor Swiss. 

The Bankers and the power brokers are frightening them with dire consequences if they should exercise their freedom and politely request that their gold be returned to them, to be kept within their national borders.

Why should they resist?  This is not done in the well developed, sophisticated nations.  Why should anyone wish to hold their own wealth?  Better to give it to someone else to hold, someone who is more intelligent and capable.

And why stop at gold?   The Swiss must be foolish, to trouble themselves with keeping the arms with which to defend themselves in their own homes, with heavier weapons such as planes and artillery tucked away here and there in their cantons.  What inefficient nonsense.

Wouldn't it make more sense to send all this weaponry overseas, let's say to New York, for safekeeping?   If they wish to sell, replace, or repair it, it would be much cheaper to do it in one of the countries that are major arms suppliers to the world.

What else do the Swiss cherish?   Perhaps they should sell their children into indentured servitude, so they do not have to trouble their minds about educating and caring for them.   The Banks and the State can surely do a better job than they.  Or perhaps they should sell them to the nation builders in New York or London, where the management of population is done more efficiently and effectively.

Freedom is a burden.  And wealth just creates more worries.  Better to hand it over to one of the world's great powers for safekeeping.    Change is too risky.

You will surely never have to think again of it, or even see it, for a very long time.  It will be as though it is not even there.

Say yes to servitude.   Vote no on repatriating your nation's wealth.  Do not make the same mistake as the Germans.

All the English speaking countries are doing it.   Look how well the centralization of wealth in fewer and fewer hands is working for England and America, in Australia and Canada.  Their people sleep extraordinarily well.  In fact, it is often hard to tell if they are ever truly awake.

 

Have a pleasant evening.

 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Bliss

“I know not why anyone but a schoolboy in his declamation should whine over the Commonwealth of Rome, which grew great only by the misery of the rest of mankind.

The Romans, like others, as soon as they grew rich, grew corrupt; and in their corruption sold the lives and freedoms of themselves, and of one another.”

Samuel Johnson

Stocks continued drifting higher today ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls number tomorrow.

All is quiet in the Pax Americana.  The natives are blissfully uninformed.

Did they know there were protests in London and Brussels? 

No, they only hear of the latest fashions, and dark tales of the evil Russian, which are quickly dispelled by the posturing of Taylor Swift, and here and there, gossip about power struggles in the Capitol District.

Have a pleasant evening.

 

Taibbi: The $9 Billion Witness - The Deal Manager That JPM Did Not Wish to Tell Her Story

"Corruption is why we win."

Danny Dalton, Syriana


"It was like watching an old lady get mugged on the street. I thought, 'I can't sit by any longer'... Every time I had a chance to talk, something always got in the way... I could be sued into bankruptcy. I could lose my license to practice law. I could lose everything.

But if we don't start speaking up, then this really is all we're going to get: the biggest financial cover-up in history."

Alayne Fleischmann, quoted in The $9 Billion Witness

It's nice to see Matt writing again about financial shenanigans.

Isn't it amazing how the sports editor at Rolling Stone magazine, and small blogs on the internet, keep coming up with amazing scoops and stories about financial corruption that are completely missed or glossed over by the mainstream media?

Confidence!  

Best markets, financial system, and news media, ever.   If you are a member of the one percent.

The $9 Billion Witness
By Matt Taibbi
November 6, 2014

Meet the woman JPMorgan Chase paid one of the largest fines in American history to keep from talking

...Fleischmann is the central witness in one of the biggest cases of white-collar crime in American history, possessing secrets that JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon late last year paid $9 billion (not $13 billion as regularly reported – more on that later) to keep the public from hearing.

Back in 2006, as a deal manager at the gigantic bank, Fleischmann first witnessed, then tried to stop, what she describes as "massive criminal securities fraud" in the bank's mortgage operations.

Thanks to a confidentiality agreement, she's kept her mouth shut since then...

Six years after the crisis that cratered the global economy, it's not exactly news that the country's biggest banks stole on a grand scale. That's why the more important part of Fleischmann's story is in the pains Chase and the Justice Department took to silence her....

Read the entire article at Rolling Stone.

Lawsuit: CME Futures Market Creates 'Guaranteed Winners and Guaranteed Losers'

How appropriate that this morning Bart Chilton is appearing on Bloomberg TV with Terry Duffy, President of the CME, laughing it up with the 'news anchors' about 'Why Today's Markets Are Better Than Ever.'

I suppose that the US markets of today are quite efficient and effective. 

The public may just not understand in 'what way' they are intended to be efficient.

And may the odds be always in your favour.

This is a very brief excerpt of a well written story from Wall Street On Parade.

You may read it in its entirety here.
 

Lawsuit: Chicago Futures Market Creates “Guaranteed Winners and Guaranteed Losers”
By Pam Martens
November 6, 2014

Last week three futures traders told a Federal court in Chicago that it’s not just the high frequency trading firms that are reaping a windfall but the exchanges who are engaged in a conspiracy with them to create guaranteed winners and guaranteed losers...

But what Judge Charles P. Kocoras has been hearing in this case for months are these hair-raising charges of 'clandestine contracts' between the futures exchanges and high frequency traders; that the exchange is giving high frequency traders early peeks at data before the rest of the market under a process known as the 'Latency Loophole'; and that potentially as much as 50 percent of the trades on the exchange are 'wash trades.'

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Chart - Send In the Clowns

Gold and silver were hit again rather hard last night, with a large number of contracts dumped at market during quiet periods.  This is a deliberate series of actions that are part control fraud, and part currency war. 

It is as much the predations of private money as it is government meddling.  Big money and government are in a corrupt partnership.   Those who have simplified their world views with slogans about getting rid of government do not get this.  But they will get it, and it will hurt.

This is not a problem for the Comex, which is essentially just a game.

This is going to be a huge problem for the miners, and those countries and people who depend on them. It is a problem down the road for those whose bullion has been leased out and sold by the banks into the metals markets.

For some miners, allied as they are with bullion banks in forward sales and hedges, it will be an opportunity to obtain more reserves and assets on the cheap from acquisitions and line their pockets, their shareholders be damned with the writedowns that follow.

For some analysts and industry organizations, it is a great opportunity to go along to get along, and get paid.

For some on Wall Street, this is just another brick in the wall of their historic transfer of wealth through control frauds. They are growing fat, picking the bones of the lower and middle classes.

For some well intentioned but incredibly naïve people who have been swept up in the political slogans of demagogues, it will be a great time to feel good, to believe that they at last are finally members of The Club, one of the In-Crowd, to feel that they are winning

But unfortunately for most, it will ultimately prove to be a pyrrhic victory when this long running scheme unwinds, and people start to stand up and say no, and stop acting out of emotions and anger and spite at each other.  And when enough of them do it, there will be real change.

Have a pleasant evening.