Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Chart - Tender Mercies

 

March is a tough month historically for the metals. I would that it were not, but it is.

And don't the wiseguys know it, and they and their shills help it along.

 

And it seems to be a month that attracts quite few supercilious comments about values and valuations.

 

However, it is what it is.  Gold and silver have failed to break out of the downtrend.  That has been obvious for some time, since gold broke down hard through 1200.

 

Let's see what happens next week, with an eye towards Asia and the physical markets there.

 

This Eurodollar Riot by Cumberland Advisors is very much reading about the US dollar rally and the Eurodollar 'short squeeze' that I discussed a few times in the past.  I used to track these Eurodollar moves through the BIS reports. 

 

I have not done so lately.  They are usually about two quarters in arrears.  I think this example by Cumberland is good, but it ignores the primary impacts in the currency markets, and instead concentrates on the central bank impacts which are less volatile.  They also do not mention the large number of loans and transaction overseas that are denominated in dollars. 

 

There was a little action in the delivery department by the bucket shop boys, and nothing moves out of the gold bullion warehouses these days.  The Comex silver warehouses are being used as a delivery point interestingly enough, and there is a great deal of movement in and out.

 

FOMC meeting next week.  I think the big tickle will be centered on wording, specifically the word 'patient.'   The Fed is a failed institution.  But it is supported by a large and powerful infrastructure of vested interests.

 

The Fed's actions these days are somewhat disconnected from the real economy.  The idea of raising rates while the rest of the world is cutting, with a soaring dollar, is almost ludicrous.  

 

The Fed has the itch to raise because they ought to have done so before this latest stock asset bubble took off about two years ago, and changed their method of stimulus which does few outside the financial system any real good. 

 

They are raising rates, not to fight inflation of which there isn't any, even on the horizon except that which is monopoly-driven like healthcare and pharmaceuticals, and of course, paper financial assets.

 

Rather, they wish to raise rates for their own future policy reasons, so that they can cut them again when their latest asset bubble bursts. 

 

This is the credibility trap in action.  Past errors and complicity prevent them from addressing the real problems, or even stating what they are honestly and frankly. 

 

How can a co-conspirator gracefully introduce necessary reform without harming their credibility, or their cash flow?

 

Do you envy the rich and powerful?  Don't. 

"It would be far better for that man if he had never been born."

 

Remember the poor, and the creatures of the air as well, as Spring slowly arrives.  The harsh coldness gives way slowly to the warmer breezes and life giving sun.  And we can help nature to heal and bring forth its bounty anew. 

 

Remember the things that, in the end, are the only things that really matter, the only that are really worth remembering.  Life may be hard, but love endures.

 

Behold, He makes all things new.

 

Have a pleasant weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - The Hunger Games

 

“I am the victim of an error of judgement. Now that I look back, I realize that a life predicated on being obedient and taking orders is a very comfortable life indeed. Living in such a way reduces to a minimum one's need to think...

I may have made an error in judgement-- but one thing is beyond dispute: the man was able to work his way up to leader of a people of almost 80 million. His success alone proved that I should subordinate myself to him."

Adolf Eichmann

Just another week in the financialized wash and rinse cycle that runs the economy for its own benefits through the banking system.

 

And may the odds be every in your favour.

 

Especially if you control the games.

Have a pleasant weekend.

 

 

 

Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson on Congress and their 18 Percent Approval Rating

"Journalism is one of the devices whereby industrial autocracy keeps its control over political democracy; it is the day-by-day, between-elections propaganda, whereby the minds of the people are kept in a state of acquiescence, so that when the crisis of an election comes, they go to the polls and cast their ballots for either one of the two candidates of their exploiters."

Upton Sinclair, The Brass Check

Congress has an approval rating hovering around 18% according to the latest Gallup poll.  

Yikes! How can that be in a 'democratic' system?

 

Even President Obama's approval rating is hovering around 48% with about the same disapproval in our polarizing society.

 

Can 18% of the people pick the representative they like, while ignoring the other 82%?

Is it the fault of the people, the voting public?

Yes, but mostly by inaction, and their obvious confusion in the face of well funded onslaughts of command, control, and propaganda across most of the media spectrum. 

 

Gerrymandering.  Disgracefully obvious voter suppression. A insider controlled two party candidate selection process. Distorted primaries.  Rabid framing of the issues based on stereotypes and emotions.  Purposeful deceit.  Secrecy.  Manipulation.  Even the results of polls and headlines are distorted to support the 'messaging.'

 

And powerful private interests would definitely like to convince you that government is necessarily evil by its very nature, and that you should just get rid of it, and trust the monopolies and moneyed interests to be naturally benevolent and virtuous.  

They have been waging this campaign to overthrow democracy and repeal every reform, one by one, for thirty years.  And they seem to be winning, little by little, in overturning most safeguards for fairness and justice. 

 

The massive pollution of the airwaves by corporate funds and the moneyed interests with an almost incessant stream of persuasion and propaganda.  They phrase the questions carefully, and then give us the answers they want the people to hear.

And most people still believe what they see on television, the radio, and the mainstream media.

 

You give the 'wrong answer' on television, and you are never invited back.  You are also cut off from access to power and information.   You would not believe have many times I have heard this.  

 

The key morning message from Bloomberg Television this morning was an old meme from almost exactly this time last year by David Zervos, chief market strategist of Jefferies, with Eric Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle nodding approvingly:

"Stocks are for lovers, gold is for haters."

"In short, he said that if you're somewhat of a pessimist — a hater — and think the Fed's monetary easing can't go on forever, and the system is destined to crash, then you think we're going back to the 1970s and want to be in hard commodities, such as gold. But if you think the U.S. economy is eventually going to emerge from this period of low growth and eventually recover, much like the 1990s, then you're a lover and should be in equities."

 

Yes, that 'worked' as stocks greatly outperformed metals for quite some time now, about three years.  The trend is your friend.  And so is the Fed and their method of implementing monetary policies.  Not so much for workers and real median wages though.  I think we can stipulate that Wall Street has been a major beneficiary of the Fed and the government.  Why not, they paid well enough for it.

 

And yes, we are just about at that point in the banal insipidness of our economic discussion.  Whatever works for whatever reason, just go with it.   Bear and bull markets make people economic forecasting geniuses.  Until they don't.  And then they blame you for listening.

Speaking of geniuses, next year will you may have the privilege to vote Bush v. Clinton, or Clinton v. Bush.

You get to vote for the candidates that the insiders select for you.

I am not sure about Wilkerson's assessment that 95% of the Congress are just stupid.  Jim McGill's opinion on lawyers in the second video is of course exaggerated, but has some merit.  And it seems applicable to quite a few other professions these days, where people say what their paychecks demand.

Chart Updates For Today - The Recovery™ Killing Floor Hard Time Blues

"Every despotic society lives on the basis of a rather implausible dogma."

Reinhold Niebuhr

Here is a snapshot of the key charts as of noon today.

There will be no updates tonight.

Things went well for us yesterday and today. It may be encumbered by an insane bureaucracy of parasitical financial and medical monopolies who add no value but extract fat profits and artificially ration care to keep prices high, but there are many good and hardworking people in the healthcare system itself.

 

Once again, I have ransomed my 'pearl of great price' from the lion's mouth.

 

And as always one finds themselves sharing their plight with others in waiting rooms, offering and receiving comfort, sharing thoughts with those carrying their own daily crosses with their loved ones.  It is a Lenten gift.

Be back tomorrow.

I am keeping an eye on the shenanigans of the careless few.

This 'strong dollar is good' meme will serve the financiers, but it will put a spike into the heart of The Recovery™, and probably the dollar as the world's reserve currency by causing turmoil in the emerging markets.  Think of 1997 and the failures that helped start the movement to displace King Dollar as the reserve currency in the first place.

 

How can anyone forecast inflation or deflation when so much of it is up to discretionary decisions by the Fed and their moneyed interests?  This is why I forecast stagflation, which in itself is the result of either an exogenous economic shock or a willful policy error.  

 

In this case it is the result of massive monetary stimulus, that has been misdirected top down into an unreformed financial system that has left the broad aggregate demand wanting.  It flows to the Banks and the corporations, who skim the best of it before it can barely reach the people. It is like sending aid to a beleaguered nation, straight into the hands of robber barons, petty warlords, and despots who take the best and the most for themselves.

 

Any overseas firms that have been arranging  their loan debt in dollars are going to suffer mightily from this monetary hubris. 

The financiers can skim profits from this dollar short squeeze, and use the King Dollar to acquire even more income producing, even sovereign, assets on the cheap overseas. 

 

We have the best and most skillful liars in the world.   And they are on parade.

 

Winning....

 

Keep your lamps trimmed and burning.

 

Have a pleasant evening.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - The Gathering Storm

“I hope I am over wary; but if I am not, there is, even now, something of ill-omen, amongst us. I mean the increasing disregard for law which pervades the country; the growing disposition to substitute the wild and furious passions, in lieu of the sober judgment of Courts; and the worse than savage mobs, for the executive ministers of justice...

At the close of that [revolutionary] struggle, nearly every adult male had been a participator in some of its scenes. The consequence was, that of those scenes, in the form of a husband, a father, a son or brother, a living history was to be found in every family-- a history bearing the indubitable testimonies of its own authenticity, in the limbs mangled, in the scars of wounds received, in the midst of the very scenes related-- a history, too, that could be read and understood alike by all, the wise and the ignorant, the learned and the unlearned.

But those histories are gone. They can be read no more forever. They were a fortress of strength; but, what invading foeman could never do, the silent artillery of time has done; the leveling of its walls. They are gone. They were a forest of giant oaks; but the all-resistless hurricane has swept over them, and left only, here and there, a lonely trunk, despoiled of its verdure, shorn of its foliage; unshading and unshaded, to murmur in a few gentle breezes, and to combat with its mutilated limbs, a few more ruder storms, then to sink, and be no more.

They were the pillars of the temple of liberty; and now, that they have crumbled away, that temple must fall, unless we, their descendants, supply their places with other pillars, hewn from the solid quarry of sober reason. Passion has helped us; but can do so no more. It will in future be our enemy. Reason, cold, calculating, unimpassioned reason, must furnish all the materials for our future support and defence.

Let those materials be moulded into general intelligence, sound morality, and in particular, a reverence for the constitution and laws: and, that we improved to the last; that we remained free to the last; that we revered his name to the last; that, during his long sleep, we permitted no hostile foot to pass over or desecrate his resting place; shall be that which to learn the last trump shall awaken our Washington.

Upon these let the proud fabric of freedom rest, as the rock of its basis; and as truly as has been said of the only greater institution, 'the gates of hell shall not prevail against it.'"

Abraham Lincoln, Lyceum Address, January 27, 1838

 

Gold and silver did very little today, despite the brisk sell off in equities.  The denizens of the bucket shops were busy picking pockets in other markets.

 

The global economy is in a very difficult circumstance, and the Fed is at the heart of it.  I have no sympathy for them whatsoever, because they have placed themselves there, repeatedly, by their actions and omissions as manager of the world's reserve currency and key regulator of one of the world's most influential financial markets.

 

Will the Fed raise rates as they have now led the world to expect, or will they do nothing, and essentially cut them by once again kicking those who believe them in the expectations?

 

Most Americans do not understand what is going on in the rest of the world.  It is not pretty.  Europe is hanging by a much thinner thread than I think the plutocrats in Frankfurt and Brussels realize. 

 

The emerging markets are absorbing a great deal of inflation being generated and exported by the US.  It would be extremely interesting to have access to a reliable estimate of Eurodollars.  I think we are experiencing yet another Eurodollar short squeeze as the debts contracted for by overseas companies in dollars feel the stress of a disjointed global financial system.

 

It took a little over twenty years for the unease that Lincoln describes above to explode upon the landscape in a bloody civil war.  It might be worth reading his entire Lyceum speech.  It surely does not describe what we might think of as domestic tranquility and pastoral bliss.   The republic endured, but at a terrible cost.

 

In our age reason and morality and honour have fallen to the despicable cheapness of 'greed is good' and the foul god of the market. 

  

Have a pleasant evening.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - The Rape of the American Mind

“He who dictates and formulates the words and phrases we use, he who is master of the press and radio, is master of the mind. Repeat mechanically your assumptions and suggestions, diminish the opportunity for communicating dissent and opposition. This is the formula for political conditioning of the masses.

The big lie and monotonously repeated nonsense have more emotional appeal in a cold war than logic and reason.

The continual intrusion into our minds of the hammering noises of arguments and propaganda can lead to two kinds of reactions. It may lead to apathy and indifference, the I-dont-care reaction, or to a more intensified desire to study and to understand. Unfortunately, the first reaction is the more popular one.  Confusing a targeted audience is one of the necessary ingredients for effective mind control."

Joost Meerloo, The Rape of the Mind

 

There is going to be another financial crisis within the next two years, and it will be global, and it may be much more consequential than the other two or three we have seen since the Fed embarked on this course of its long and checkered career.

 

It is also avoidable, and in their quiet, private moments the really good economists can see it coming.  Why don't they say anything?  Ennui of the bureaucrat, entropy of an inability to change, and the credibility trap of failed ideologies in a failing empire. 

 

They did not get to where they are by 'rocking the boat.'  And so they will be quiet, unless they see some advantage in it for them, most ordinarily in a pay for say.

 

Not so for the financiers and their minions.  They will not be quiet, alas.  The more badly they behave, the louder they seem to become.

 

They are short term, and almost infantile in the self-centered reasoning.  Although a child is limited by lack of faculty and experience, the speculator is hampered by vanity, a self-imposed lack of human development, and an almost obsessive preoccupation with drinking, favorite objects, and teats.  

 

They see something and they want it, they know only what they can feel in the desire of the moment, morally they are undeveloped, and when they make a mess they cry loudly, until an adult comes to clean it up for them.  But unlike a child they have no gratitude, no sense of their own dependency, or natural affection for others.

 

Have a pleasant evening