05 August 2015

JP Morgan Saves the Day With a 275,000 Ounce Gold Fill On the Comex


When I saw the CME gold report from yesterday I was a little surprised to see that over 300,000 ounces of gold in futures contracts were stopped, or taken for delivery, so far in August.  And there was a total request for 282,000 ounces just yesterday.

Since there were only 362,000 ounces offered, I was wondering how they would manage this.  Claims to deliverable ounces were still running over 120:1.
 
And just for grins, where were the biggest requests for gold coming from?  None other than the house accounts of Goldman and HSBC.  What's up with that?

Have no fear, JP Morgan stepped up and moved 276,000 ounces into the 'deliverable' category as show in the second chart. 
 
And they filled 275,000 ounces of that futures delivery request out of their 'house account' as shown in the first.
 
Just in the nick of time!
 
The dirty little secret is that this market is a tiny tail wagging an elephant of global physical demand.   And the tail waggers seem to be slowly, but surely, losing their grip.
 


04 August 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Meh

 
Gold and silver were drifting higher most of the day.
 
Dennis Lockhart of the Atlanta Fed felt the urge to declare that barring the wheels falling off the economy, he was inclined to raise rates at the September meeting.
 
That sounds familiar.  Oh, this is what I have been saying for most of the year.
 
Wow, what a revelation.
 
Traders in stocks and short term rates, and their associated algos, bounced their pricing to generate some activity, and more 'vig' for the HFT programs and the brokers.
 
Other than that this was a nothing day. 
 
The most important development I am watching, besides the stagnant economy and the kabuki theater of the Fed-centered propeller heads, is the decline in AAPL.
 
This is a danger, very narrow market that has been driven to an extreme based on a handful of 'new era stocks.'
 
Where have we seen this scenario before?
 
Nothing much happened in The Bucket Shop
 
Someone at Scotia decided to move 10,000 ounces from eligible to deliverable which will give the guys who track these things breathlessly the change to recalculate that 124:1 ratio of paper to bullion a bit lower.
 
I'll keep an eye on it, but it does not matter much if it is 116:1, or 120:1, or even 130:1.   If you don't have it, you don't have it.  And so they go to plan B, the artful dodge, which they have been hitting like a crack pipe in the VIP room at a 10th avenue 'nightclub' on a Friday night.
 
Have a pleasant evening.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Janet Jett and the Blackhearts


"I think there is a high bar right now to not acting, speaking for myself. It will take a significant deterioration in the economic picture for me to be disinclined to move ahead."

Dennis Lockhart, Atlanta Fed President, 4 August 2015

This statement and the continuing decline in AAPL today were the primary movers in the market.

Apple cracked its 200 DMA and closed below it, for the first time in a very long while. This has technical market watchers spooked.

And in this highly narrowed market with just a few of the big tech fliers pulling the rally behind them, the potential for further declines in a behemoth like Apple has traders a little worried.

Let's see if Apple confirms this by continuing to close below the 200 DMA and can go out on the week, and then it might be a serious decline underway.

As for Lockhart, he is Yellen's buddy, and is continuing to give her cover for a rate increase that has nothing to do with the real economy, as I have said here many times. The Fed wants to pull the trigger before we get closer to the election because they do not want to provide a topic for the debates.

This market is dodgy.

Have a pleasant evening.
 





03 August 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Claims Per Ounce to New High of 121:1


As you can see from the first chart below, the number of potential claims per deliverable ounce on the Comex has risen to a record high of 121 to 1.

That can be corrected by higher prices for bullion that will prompt more legitimate sellers of actual bullion to take their stored gold and put it in the 'registered' for delivery category.

Or the trading desks of the banks and funds can continue to pummel the price with paper short selling, in the hopes of knocking down the open interest and the longs.

In the short term a fraud is relatively easy to sustain if you can compromise the 'cops on the beat' and you have powerful friends in the game with you.

In the longer term all such schemes collapse.  But con men and other criminal sorts are rarely thinking about the longer term consequences.

And it is the character of our time that those who say they are for reform, and vigilantly seek out injustice in their own case, will so often not only ignore, but join in on the taunts and misery of others less fortunate, who are suffering their own injustices, often from the same perpetrators.  

There is no real merit in acting solely out of self-interest.  Even the worst of people will do this.  But since this has become the guiding principle of our age, having sacrificed the notions of duty and honour on the altar of expediency and greed, so the virtue of the people is found wanting.

It is all too easy to  act out of the self-interest, with your mind, and not for what is right out of a principled stand for what is just, with the heart.

Have a pleasant evening.









SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Stick Save


Stocks were slumping most of the day, but managed to take back much of their losses in the closing minutes.

There is no sustainable recovery.

There cannot be a recovery while the causes of our problems cannot be discussed frankly, for the reasons cited in this intraday commentary here.

We may wish to have one.  The statisticians and pundits may paint a rosy picture of one.  But most are now aware of the huge discrepancy between what is said and what is done.  And their anger is being reflected in the political landscape.

Years of complacent looting and personal privilege have made the plutocrats tone deaf to the message.

The lack of reform of the financialized economy that caused the last two bubbles and crashes will most likely cause the next one as well.

The primary reason is the corrupting power of money in politics, academics, the media, and most of the higher level functions in a society. They are caught, complicit, in a credibility trap.

The contributing reason is the after effects of a sustained draining of income and wealth from the bottom 99% to the top, as a consequence of policy and injustice.

The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustainable recovery.

And none of this can be accomplished without serious political campaign reform to staunch the enormous flow of money as soft bribes into the coffers of the politicians.

Have a pleasant evening.







Central Planning and the Inevitable Abuse of Freedom from a Concentration of Wealth and Power


This is a reprise of a blog posting from August 2011

Most students of economics are aware of the tendency of 'perfect competition' to zero economic profit over time, unless there is a continual renewal and reinvention of the business, under the guidance of a wise, insightful, and responsive management. Even the best enterprise involves a risk of loss, the expense of well paid employees, and significantly hard work, all combined with a bit of luck. Little wonder that a minority of businessmen find this arrangement less satisfactory that other alternatives, which unfortunately includes various forms of cheating, if not outright fraud.

And therefore there is a constant tendency of participants in capitalist systems to foster the unreasonable profits of cartels and the stable pricing power of monopolies, natural or otherwise, with a measure of discretionary control over resources and choices, legislation and information, and political and monetary power.

Corporations are merely creatures of the law, and inferior to it. Without it, they don’t exist. What better way to create the supreme monopoly and maintain it in perpetuity than to skew the law in one’s favor?

When corporations obtain an inordinate amount of power over the social fabric of regulation and governance, the creation of an oligarchy distorts the real economy through the accumulation of too much power in too few hands, in the manner of the central planning bureaucracies of the old line communist nations.

And this is why the standard economic solutions of both stimulus and austerity for normal cyclical excess can be doomed to failure, as they are at this time. The system itself has become distorted and broken, and is badly in need of reform.  Whatever one puts into it will come out badly, and be turned to fruitless purposes, corrupted by the unprecedented concentration of power in the hands of the few, the partnership of the Wall Street banks, big media, multinational corporations, and their servants in the government.

The hallmark of a corrupt enterprise is that while it has the power to confiscate and destroy, it cannot create sustainable organic growth and recovery that benefits the broader public.   This may be a private monopoly or collection of monopolies, or a government chartered agency, or a government itself.  The characteristics of all of these can be very similar.  It is merely the details of their legal composition that differ.   

The modern, somewhat romantic theory of naturally efficient markets peopled by inhumanly rational and altruistic individuals is a fairly modern twist on the noble savage ideal of Rousseau, and just as other-worldly and impractical when applied to a modern society. Certainly no one who has driven recently on a modern highway in rush hour could believe it.

Nineteenth century Americans viewed the business trusts as un-American "internationalists, and  heartless, abusive exploiters of the public interest." And rightly so. They looked for relief to the reform of their government, and the power of democracy and the law.  

This struggle of the individual to maintain a balance of power with the organizations, whether they be the corporation or the state, is a recurrent theme, a continuing saga throughout human history.  Big Government and Big Business have both been inimical to human freedom.

Whether such an accumulation of power in a few hands is achieved by the gun and star chamber, or the pen and the bribe, may not matter to the end result, which is a society plagued by corruption, stagnation, and at its end, a growing instability with a resort to physical force and more overt repression on its own people.

Central Planning - It's not Just for Communists Anymore
By Matthew K
23 August 2011
Vancouver, BC

It's been a rough few weeks for the capitalist system, which bestrides the globe like a teetering colossus. Not only has there been stock market turmoil worldwide, and the temporary threat of a US default on its debts, but an esteemed, mainstream economist suggested that Karl Marx was right. In the Wall Street Journal, no less! Karl Marx Was Right

That would be Nouriel Roubini, whose claim to fame came from timely warnings about the US housing bubble and subsequent US stock market collapse.. It is important to note that he only said that Marx was right in that capitalism could collapse on itself,  not that it actually would.

Most people are familiar with the spectacular failures of central planning in the Communist regimes. According to the resurgently fashionable Austrian school of economics, an economy is too complex to be managed by one expert, or even one committee of experts, regardless whether the clubhouse door reads "Politburo" or "Shark Tank."

According to the Austrians, society's fastest path to prosperity consists of allowing every person to decide freely what is in their best interest, with the emphasis on individual transactions.

A biological analogy comes from flocks of birds, schools of fish, and ant colonies, among others. These swarms function extremely well, despite being composed of simple creatures following simple rules, and despite the anarchic lack of a leader directing things. Our own "simple critter rules" in modern society are probably along the lines of "try to get a higher paying job, and pay lower prices for stuff, within the laws of the land, and without making too many enemies."

A business analogy comes from Toyota. Their quality went from hopeless to fearsome by training every employee to be competent enough to figure out how to do their own job better, and then allowing them to do so. If their management tried to dictate how each task was to be done, they might have peaked at early-80’s American car maker quality levels.

In a similar way, they decided not to try to predict the right production levels for each model, colour, and trim. Instead they pre-built enough cars to fill dealership inventory, and each time a customer purchased a vehicle, they would build one more of that same model, colour, and features. In economic nerd speak, they responded to that "market signal". So if 5% of Corolla drivers wanted a green car with deluxe extras, in the long run 5% of Corolla production would consist of deluxe green vehicles.

Since the flaws of central planning and benefits of distributed decision-making occur in the public sector, the private sector, and even in biology, we can generalize that the USSR's economic problem was ultimately that a small group of people would decide how to (mis)allocate most of the country's resources.

In the past thirty years, there's been an immense concentration of wealth -- particularly in Anglo-American countries (the US, UK, us, the Aussies). The US is at the leading edge of this trend, with the top 1% owning 42% of the wealth, or about six times as much as the bottom four fifths of the population, and a significant portion of the means of production and public information (media) and influence over the course of society.

In recent decades Western capitalism has moved towards the central planning model of a relatively small number of people in charge of directing the allocation of resources. This narrowing of perspective has in turn led to policies progressively more disastrous for the moved and the shaken... which was the Soviet denouement.

I have to credit the influence of the thoughtful blog of a well-to-do American entrepreneur and military strategist, and especially this particular posting. Central Planning and the Fall of US Empire

Capitalism's path back from the self-perpetuating central planning will require a more equitable, or at least a less inequitable, distribution of wealth and power, by which to rebuild the middle class and promote decision making based on individual choice and a more widely based entrepreneurial meritocracy. Which is what Roubini was complaining about, in saying that too much wealth was being redistributed from labour to capital.

It would be a terrible irony if Marx was proven correct, and unchecked capitalism destroyed itself by evolving the self-crippling features of a centrally planned communist economy.  One can only hope that we can reform our current market systems before things get worse.