SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Hard Down

Stocks were on the downslide today after not so good economic news in the US this morning as noted in the economic calendar below, and perhaps more importantly another down day for oil.

As you know I had suggested some time ago that we had made a short term bottom. And that we were likely to see a largely technical rally that might go higher than you might think, maybe 20-30% retracement.

But unless something substantial changes in the global outlook, that then we might see that rally fail and we could go back down and not only retest the low, but set a new one. At the time I suggested we *could* see 1770 on the SP 500 futures.

I'll stick with that for now.  But I have added a trendline in blue to the chart to give myself some idea of what any shorter term corrections might look like, as opposed to another big move down lower.

Yahoo after the bell.

Have a pleasant evening.

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds

Having completed the acquisition of the Central Gold Trust, the Sprott Physical Gold Trust now reflects that additional bullion and the cash assets obtained through the transaction through the disposition of bullion.

Obviously the Central Gold Trust is no longer listed and has ceased to exist.

The Sprott Silver Trust has sold some bullion to raise cash and is now well funded.

The Central Fund must address their cash position, either through a bullion sale or a secondary offering.

Administrative Note, Mostly

“It's time for the United States to start thinking of Iraq as a business opportunity," she [Secretary of State Hillary Clinton] said in a 2011 speech.

The quote was included in an email released by the State Department on Wednesday that specifically mentioned JPMorgan and Exxon Mobil. JPMorgan was selected by the U.S. government to run a key import-export bank in Iraq and in 2013 announced plans to expand its operations in the country.

Exxon Mobil signed a deal to redevelop Iraqi oil fields. JPMorgan has collectively paid the Clintons and the Clinton Foundation at least $450,000 for speeches, and Exxon Mobil has donated over $1 million to the family’s foundation.

David Sirota, Hillary Pitched Iraq As a 'Business Opportunity'

I will be out of pocket for the rest of the day, with somewhat constrained access to the internet.

I will be at hospital while my wife undergoes a colonoscopy.

I am sure we will be going out to eat after that since she has been fasting since yesterday morning.

I am posting some links from the waiting room.

So there will be no chart updates tonight.

Postscript:   Great results, and now out to dinner, thanking God for His tender mercies.

Gold Bullion Inventories at Comex Licensed Facilities

Here are some charts showing the status of the gold bullion in licensed Comex private warehouses.

The decline in 'registered' gold, which is gold marked available for delivery process, is striking.

Rather than 'owners per ounce' I prefer to think about that ratio as 'potential claims per ounce.'  That number has declined from the recent spike higher, back to only 386 to 1.

I do not think any rules change is behind this shepherding of gold into the eligible storage, and so much less so as for active delivery.   But if there is such a  legitimate change I would be glad to hear it.

Until I do, it seems the theory that after a three year bear market in prices with accelerating physical offtake in Asia, gold bullion for sale has been left in relatively strong hands that are not inclined to sell at these prices, or risk an unintentional sale in a short squeeze.

As Goes January, So Goes the Year...

And so we say goodby to January 2016.

There is an old saying on Wall Street that as goes January, so goes the year.  This is also known in some circles as the 'January barometer.'

If this is the case it is going to be a good year for precious metals and a very wild ride for stocks.

It certainly did not 'work' last year, which also forecast a good year for the metals and a bum year for stocks.  The metals continued their bear market decline, but stocks were in fact down to flat.

Ah, if only life and forecasting was that simple so that a single metric would suffice.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - BoJ Shocks, Silver Inventory Drops

"Love is patient, love is kind. It does not envy, it does not boast, it is not proud.

It does not dishonor others, it is not self-seeking, it is not easily angered, it keeps no record of wrongs. Love does not delight in evil but rejoices with the truth. It always protects, always trusts, always hopes, always perseveres."

Gold and silver were stronger than expected today as the US dollar was soaring on the shocker that the Bank of Japan is going negative on yen interest rates.

This set the markets back on their heels because just a week ago BoJ's Kuroda publicly dismissed the possibility.

This is a possible artifact of the currency war, in which certain countries will be seeking to devalue their currencies through various mechanisms in the hope of stimulating their economies, among other things.

On that announcement the US dollar index lit its afterburners and rallied harder.   I am wondering if these currency interventions, because this is exactly what the BoJ has done, will do anything to roil the massive currency carry trades and derivatives associated with these.

BoJ purportedly acted to stimulate Banks to make loans, which is a bunch of hoo-haw.  All the BoJ would require is for a few well placed people to pick up the phone and make some phone calls.

Gold is still outpacing silver, and this is due to the 'flight to safety' environment, even though we saw a sharp reversal in the Risk equilibrium in equities today that I suspect is more technical and short term.

I will probably have something more to say about January a littler later on.

There was some actual movement in the Comex licensed gold warehouses, bring the monthly delivery total to a staggering 5,800 ounces.  Wow.

Silver was most interesting with a 21.5% drop in registered bullion which is a big one day move.  I commented on this earlier today here.  There are plenty of screaming headlines one can write about this in the search for clicks, but for now it is just an interesting fact with a significance that is not known, excepting that it is not 'business as usual.'

One theory I have heard is that the recent 'glitch' with the new London silver price fix that was so oddly far below the market spooked some holders of the metal into fears of having their registered bullion delivered out from under them 'on the cheap.'

There are also the usual rumours involving China which is said to be scooping up the remnants of gold and silver where they may. This I cannot address, but the notion that the 80 cents below prevailing market 'price fix' in London tightened up some strong hands makes some sense.

Let's continue to keep an eye on the chart formations and try to listen to the markets.

Have a pleasant weekend.