“Depart from me, you accursed. For I was hungry and you gave me no food, thirsty and you gave me no drink, a stranger and you did not welcome me, naked and you did not clothe me, sick and in prison and you did not comfort me.' They answer, 'Lord, when was it that we saw you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or sick or in prison, and did not care for you?' He answered, 'Truly I tell you, as you did not do it to one of the least of these, you did not do it for me.’” Matthew 25:40-46
Stocks managed to come off the lows and finished mostly unchanged. They tended to bounce off support on low volumes in a narrow advance, and without apparent conviction.
Have a mind for your fellows, and especially for your souls in these times of a coldness in the hearts of many.
“For where men have made the earth trodden underfoot, and have largely veiled the heavens themselves, it is but natural that they should think that they have made everything, and that it is they who rule it.”
Robert Hugh Benson, Lord of the World
The warning sign of a serious dislocation in the physical gold market may be when the price of physical gold for real delivery goes bid limit up, with none offered. That is one scenario, perhaps not the most probable. Most likely they would close the exchange for 'order imbalances' and to 'protect participants.' And for the bullion bears, it would seem as though they were 'staring into the abyss.'
Probably an effect of some series of financial paper assets somewhere going limit down, with none bid. Couldn't happen, right?
The data from The Bucket Shop is really not very instructive these days, except to paint the broader trends, and now and then let out the little 'tells' of problems behind the curtain, if you are adept enough to watch for them.
Just because you have a lot of detailed reporting does not mean it is useful. Look at the US Labor Market numbers for example. Complexity and detail there was a-plenty in Madoff's reports. What he, like most frauds, were short of was substance underlying the false narrative.
And most of the indicators in the precious metals market that I watch tell of a tightness in the physical supply, and especially for gold.
Corroborative data is there if you look for it, in the huge physical buying in Asia, in the shrinking 'gold float' in London, and in the draining of physical supply from the ETFs and exchanges of the West.
Every so often something happens, like the failure of MF Global, that can be dismissed as a one off but that exposes the rot of leverage and multiple rehypothecation of physcial supply behind the facade of busines as usual by 'highly respected people.'
If things continue as they are now, I suspect that the tide of deceit and manipulation will be going out later this year. And then we will see what has been concealed beneath the water line for so long.
I will be a little surprised if it shows up in this particular active month of February. I am looking towards the latter part of the year. But that story is not being told here in paperland, but in the markets of Asia, and the bullion centers in London and Switzerland.
US stocks were giving up some of the recent gains today, which is no real surprise.
The advance of the last few days has been remarkably 'technical,' with no real participation from large institutional buyers.
Some have characterized it as 'retail buying' but from my vantage it looked more like manipulative algo buying, with some of the usual punting on the side. Wall Street wishes that mom and pop would come in and buy their dodgy paper yet again. Unfortunately mom and pop and their house account are in intensive care from the last four or five cons that the financial sector has run on them.
The Philly Fed this morning shows contraction again, for the sixth straight month I believe.
We are not just being badly served by well-intentioned but misinformed people. That is the 'Greenspan Defense.'
No, it is more of the self-serving and self-enriching actions of an effete group of prideful plutocrats and their willing servants. They succumbed to the principle that 'greed is good' and now are caught in a credibility trap of their own making and consequences.
And like the amoral narcissists and pampered and privileged clerks that they really are, they are mightily looking for someone else to pick up the tab for their dalliances on the dark side of their own self-serving delusions.
The peasants sense that something is wrong, and that they are being lied to on a systematic basis. And they are rejecting the usual brands being offered up by the corporate cliques for their presidential choices.
Is there anything in all of this that is not yet clear? There is no hope without real change.
Gold and silver were hit early in the overnight, and there was some obvious quote stuffing and other gimmicks in the gold futures to take the price lower. Don't take my word for it, it was Nanex that printed this and showed the data.
And gold once again would not be denied, and held the 1200 level and then some.
Let's see how we keep going in this potential chart formation.
Silver is lagging a bit here, which makes some sense because this is still a 'safe haven' trade despite what Goldman might say about anything.
And as you know, if things continue as they are, I do expect a 'dislocation' in the physical gold market, probably later this year.
Stocks were in rally mode today and the release of the Fed minutes was no impediment as they held their gains into the close.
This looks very much like a technical, 'short squeeze' rally, which is somewhat narrow in scope and with declining or flat volume as the indices push higher.
I am getting a desire to buy some volatility again around here, but perhaps I will wait to see what happens tomorrow.
Goldman analyst Jeffrey Currie came out this morning with a 'sell gold' recommendation for Ma and Pa Muppet.
I was fortunate enough to hear his explanation for this in his own words on Bloomberg TV, which had touted his gold call about every fifteen minutes all day.
The net summary of Mr. Currie's forecast is that Goldman's economists think that there ought to be no fear in the financial paper markets, since there is an historically low chance of a recession, less than fifteen percent, and he sees no real possibility of negative interest rates.
Therefore, since in his mind gold is strictly a 'fear trade' and since Goldman says to have no fear one ought to therefore sell gold.
Do with that what you will.
As for my own forecasts, I see the world economy fraying substantially throughout the year, with the domestic risk of inflation unusually high relatively speaking, and the geopolitical risks to be also rather elevated.
But at the end of the day, gold is now trading as a currency, and Uncle Buck was on a no fear tear this morning. And no matter what Mr. Currie may be saying, I am watching what Asia is doing.
So far so good on the charts as noted below.
It may be a bit of time before one might determine whether the lip of the cup is straight horizontal or slanted IF the chart continues to develop.
There was very little action at The Bucket Shop on the PM delivery front, and some silver was shoved around the plate and taken out of the warehouses. Not much happened in other words. What a surprise. The Bucket Shop is a monumental mausoleum for what has gone wrong in the US markets.
Let us pray for those whose hearts are hardened against His grace and loving kindness by greed, fear, and pride, and the seductive illusion and crushing isolation of evil.
We pray that we all may experience the three great gifts of our Lord's suffering and triumph: repentance, forgiveness, and thankfulness. And in so doing, may we obtain abundant life, and with it the peace that surpasses all understanding.
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