Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Big Deliveries, Small Price Action - Payrolls

"Amateurs want to be 'right.' Seasoned investors want to make money."

I got a chuckle from article this evening about how technical analysis is useless.  It was written by a fellow who admits in the opening lines that he does not use it and knows very little about it.  Well, it is no real surprise then that he thinks it is useless.

It would be as if some child of nature from deep in the Amazon discovered an sextant left behind by some explorers, and found it to be very ineffective as an axe.  Too short and bulky. Useless!

Or even more aptly, if an inexperienced but ardent weekend warrior were to receive a collection of tools as a gift and pronounce, after some cursory experimentation without experience and instruction, that a roofing square makes a very poor wood chisel indeed.

Seasoned traders tend to use whatever works for them in order to get the job done.  They are focused on the task, and they improve over time by learning.   And others like to argue, and debate seemingly without end on various chatboards. about systems and seers, about which is best for predicting the future, and the various merits of each.  They do not want a set of tools, but a black box, or better yet, a crystal ball or a prophet.  They focus on the means without fully understanding the place that they have in achieving the ends.

Don't do this.  It is a complete waste of time.  If there were even a nearly perfect system, or a prophetic voice who could tell you the course of future market prices even eight out of ten times, I guarantee you that they would not be dishing it out on the internet, at any price, unless they were as wise as Solomon and as selfless as angels.

There was intraday commentary about the unusually high volume of gold deliveries for the June contract on the Comex for the first three days of this period.  Given the recent history, it is almost astonishing.

The European Central Bank did nothing today.  It is what they seem to do best.

They suggested that they might start buying corporate bonds, presumably at non-market rates.

Why don't they just mail envelopes stuffed with cash to their corporate cronies and banksters?  I mean, from what I can tell, most of the policy in the US and Europe has been focused on further enriching a wealthy few, and sustaining a corrupt financial system that is unsustainable without heavy subsidies and seigniorage of information, special allowances, and outright monetary assistance.

In the European Bank's defense, the Fed is just as bad or worse when it comes to lack of principles, class myopia, and cronyism.

I have a hunch that gold and silver are being capped here for a reason.  Maybe.  It's hard to tell with the non-linear Fed.

As old Sister Killian used to say of such behaviour, 'babies must play.'

Non-Fulltime Payrolls Report tomorrow.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - The Pause that Regresses

Stocks went sideways today on very lackluster trading ahead of the Non-Fulltime Payrolls Report tomorrow.

To paraphrase Charles Dickens' Mr. Brownlow, the Fed is an ass.

Have a pleasant evening.

June Gold: 775,000 Ounces of Gold 'Delivered' On Comex In First Three Days

This is a significant change of pace for the paper heavy Comex.

Although it should be noted that much of the 'delivering' is being done between the house accounts of the big three bullion bankers: HSBC, JPM, and Nova Scotia.

It is also interesting that the registered or 'deliverable' gold held in the warehouses mushroomed to over a million ounces prior to these unusually high deliveries.   Just noting this, vis a vis the jokers who say that the registered gold metric is now unfashionable and irrelevant for any variety of contrived reasons they do not really seem to fully understand.

This is something rather different from the recent norms. Let's see if anything comes of it.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - The Lesser of Two Evils - Non Full time Payrolls

"The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power, pure power. What pure power means you will understand presently. We are different from the oligarchies of the past in that we know what we are doing...

We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means; it is an end."

George Orwell, 1984

There was another rather large set of gold deliveries on the Comex for the new June contract period yesterday.

Non-farm Payrolls (or should that be Non-full time Payrolls) on Friday.

There was intraday commentary titled Gold Cup and Handle Targets 1490 on a Breakout, With Silver Likely To New All Time Highs.

It would not surprise me if this entire election was as well scripted as a professional wrestling event. It certainly has most of the elements of one of those dramas. And the participants are of a comparable depth of character.

Hillary's brand amongst Democrats is that she deserves this election, that it is her turn.   And to independents  the pitch is that she represents the 'lesser of two evils.'

Or at least the less indictable.

That is certainly how one prefers to decide most things. Of these two selections of fish, which is less rotten?

Perhaps we should just have the salad instead.

When, when will we have had enough of this?

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Schools for Scandal - Collaborators par Excellence

“Tale-bearers are as bad as the tale-makers.”

Richard Brinsley Sheridan, The School for Scandal


"Life is a school of probability."

Walter Bagehot

And the Fed is one of the modern schools for scandal. Or at the least, an academy in service to their owners.  This seems to be the dernier cri of our professional class, a mark of status being whom you serve and how well.

Tale-bearers they may claim to be, just doing what needs be done, and at the behest of the powerful few.   They only serve the needs of the money men, and their fellow valets in the credentialed class of whatever needs to be said or done in service to the powerful status quo.

Insiders never speak ill of insiders, and so the public is held stagnant by their comfortably smug complacency.  And this is the heart of the problem, and the credibility trap.

However, their complicity in a long standing series of egregiously self-serving policy errors will be very hard to overlook and forgive when the tails of probability come lashing out again.

Have a pleasant evening

Gold Cup and Handle Targets 1490 On a Breakout, With New All Time Highs Likely In Silver

A reader, David B, has suggested that I remind you all of the big cup and handle of 2010, with its subsequent breakout run higher in 2011.   The bottom of the first big retracement was on the August 2010 gold option expiration on the Comex.

I admit that being preoccupied with other things, and not wanting to get ahead of ourselves,   I have merely been plugging in prices for you, and not discussing the progress of the cup and handle.  Since I have had several emails about this, I thought a brief discussion now might be worthwhile.

First as a reminder, here is the cup and handle of today.  The target on a breakout is 1490.  I have included that notation, admittedly in the 'small print' for many months.

I will fill more things in, such as initial targets and retracements, once the formation is activated and confirms its viability with a breakout.  The fundamental driver could be a break in the free gold float in London and a short squeeze in search of physical supply, and a deleveraging of 'paper gold.'

In the very last chart I show how silver broke through 19 and ran to break above 40 in the same time period.  If we get a breakout in the weekly cup and handle in silver that is working itself out on the charts I think a new all time high is in the cards.

Let us not get ahead of ourselves.  The price must breakout over the topmost slanted trendline in green in order to be activated.  Thinking about what may or may not happen next sets us up for a disappointment and does not lend itself to 'get right and sit tight.'

So far I have not been particularly surprised by anything that has happened.  If you refresh your memory about the prior cup and handle you will see why.

Patience is our ally, and time is on our side. Change is coming, slowly but surely, and at the end, all in a rush.

And we'll always have rock n' roll, moondogs.

Below is a chart of that prior cup and handle from the year 2010 which initially targeted 1375 and then 1455.

And below that is a picture of its fulfillment early in the year 2011.

But we'll always have rock n' roll.

Speaking of being preoccupied with other things, I will be spending most of the afternoon at hospital with herself, getting her sorted out and prepared for the next steps, so there may be no updates tonight.