"You are the very cause of your ignorance, yourselves. You put away the light, yourselves; you first pluck out both your own eyes, yourselves; and after that other men’s too, so that the blind may lead the blind, until you both fall into the pit.”
Thomas More, The Sadness of Christ (Gethsemane), Tower of London, 1535
“Love endures everything, love is stronger than death, love fears nothing. Help me, Lord, that my eyes may see all with mercy, so that I may never suspect or judge from appearances, but look deeper for what is good and beautiful in others' souls, and then come to their aid. Truth wears a crown of thorns. Let all my nothingness be drowned in the ocean of your mercy.”
Maria Faustyna Kowalska
"Blessed are the merciful, for they will obtain mercy."
Matthew 5:7
Stocks were in rally mode today, with the major indices going out on the highs.
The main suspects was Trump's return to DC after his weekend stint in the hospital, but more likely the better than expected PMI data.
And perhaps even more significant was the movement in the long end of the yield curve, which signals to some that the Fed's great experience for growth through inflation is succeeding.
The VIX rose today, along with gold and silver, so this was not so much a clear 'risk on' event.
And the Dollar slumped a bit.
So taken on in overall context, this may have been a flash of optimism about the economy.
Let's see how well the flash carries through into the week.
"Jim, lad, there be consequences an' then there be consequences. Devil take 'em all, says I, and pass aft the rum."
Robert Louis Stevenson, Treasure Island
"Foolishness has a knack of getting its way; as we should see if we were not always so much wrapped up in ourselves. In this respect our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves; they did not believe in plagues."
Albert Camus, The Plague
"Distrustful Sense with modest Caution speaks; It still looks home, and short Excursions makes; But rattling Nonsense in full Vollies breaks; For Fools rush in where Angels fear to tread."
Alexander Pope, An Essay on Criticism
"Nemesis, the goddess of retribution and vengeance, the punisher of pride and hubris, waits impatiently for her meeting with us."
Chalmers Johnson
Stocks flopped hard this morning, on the news and Trump et al. have tested positive for Covid-19.
This served to distract from the disappointing miss in the Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Non-tech managed to take a little of those losses back, but still finished in the red.
I don't think it is reasonable to expect frankness in the disclosures about the progress of the President's health, but I do wish him and everyone else who struggles with illness such as this well.
Gold and silver shook off the traditional hit for the Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Still, they need to surmount the overhead resistance before one can say that they are back on the bull market track.
Let's see what next week brings.
As an afterthought, I have added a chart formation I have been thinking about for gold.
It is a falling wedge.
If it is so, and it breaks up and out, the move could be rather impressive.
"They have treated the suffering of my people carelessly, saying, ‘all is well’ when there is no safety. They act shamefully, they commit terrible offenses; and yet they are not ashamed, and do not even know how to blush. They shall be found among those who are fallen." Jeremiah 6:14-15
"The rich man replied, ‘If someone is sent to them from the dead, then they will repent of their sins and turn to God.’ But Abraham said, ‘If they won’t listen to Moses and the prophets, they will not be persuaded, even if someone rises from the dead.’”
Luke 16:30-31
"A true opium of the people is the belief in nothingness after death, the huge solace, the huge comfort of thinking that for our betrayals, our greed, our cowardice, our murders, that we are not going to be judged.”
Czeslaw Milosz, The Discreet Charm of Nihilism
"The selfishness of an age that has devoted itself to the mere cult of pleasure has tainted the whole human race with an error that makes all our acts more or less lies against God. It is better to find God on the threshold of despair than to risk our lives in a complacency that has never felt the need of forgiveness.
Despair is the absolute extreme of self-love. It is reached when a person deliberately turns his back on all help from anyone else in order to taste the rotten luxury of knowing himself to be lost. It is therefore of supreme importance that we consent to live not for ourselves but for others."
Thomas Merton
“Each day we are becoming a creature of splendid glory, or one of unthinkable horror.”
C. S. Lewis
Stocks rallied again today, led higher by big cap techs, with some surprising strength in the broader midcaps thanks to some speculations.
Gold and silver were higher, coming off a bit from the peak of their rallies.
Gold and silver both have some serious overhead resistance overhead before I might feel good about putting up a more substantial short term trading position.
Let's see how the metals and stocks fare after tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls report.
We are in a time of hysteria and excess emotionalism, more than usual, as I cautioned years ago in my long term forecast.
We may reach a crescendo in this over the next 12 months or so. The big changes occur slowly, then all at once.
The Dollar edged a bit lower.
If Brexit takes a toll on the Pound, the Dollar Index may benefit. But the Euro remains the highest weight in the index by far.
We love our lies, and find our comfort in them. And so we serve them, cherish them. Complacent fools, fooling ourselves to death.
"If they won’t listen to Moses and the prophets, they will not be persuaded, even if someone rises from the dead.’”
"The inability to identify with others was unquestionably the most important psychological condition for the fact that something like Auschwitz could have occurred in the midst of more or less civilized and innocent people."
Theodor Adorno
"I am a camera, with its shutter open. Someday, all of this will be developed, printed, fixed."
Christopher Isherwood
"I urge you, brothers and sisters, to be wary of those who cause divisions and undermine the faithful, in opposition to the teaching that you have learned. Shun them. For such people do not serve our Lord, but their own appetites. And by clever words and flattery they deceive the hearts of the innocent and naive."
Romans 16:17-18
It was a surprisingly volatile day in the stock markets, as equities came off their overnight lows, rallied strong through unchanged to lofty highs, but then, alas, faded back towards much more modest gains in the afternoon.
It was a big pop and unproductive flop.
Note the action on the charts, how it ranged between the two Fibonacci retracement levels.
Gold and silver were also volatile, but both finished lower. Silver more markedly so.
And so it was too with the Dollar, which had a nother ranging day, but finished slightly lower.
Lacking other guidance and direction, the markets may look to the Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Although we ought to be mindful that behind the short term headline number will be looming job losses as the stimulaus programs run out, and large corporations release many thousands of employees.
"There was war in heaven. Michael and the angels fought against the dragon. The dragon fought back, but he did not have the power, and so lost his place in heaven. The great dragon was thrown down – that ancient snake called the devil, or Satan, who leads the whole world astray. He fell to the earth, and his angels with him.
Then I heard a loud voice in heaven say: ‘Now has come the salvation and the power
and the kingdom of our God,
and the authority of his Messiah. For the adversary of our brothers and sisters,
who accuses them before our God day and night,
has been hurled down.
They triumphed over him
by the blood of the Lamb
and by the word of their testimony;
they did not love their lives so much
as to shrink from death.
Therefore rejoice, you heavens
and you who dwell in them!
But woe to the earth and the sea,
because the devil has come down to you. And he is filled with fury,
because he knows that his time is short.’"
Revelation 12:7-12
"And he said to them, 'I saw Satan fall, like lightning from heaven.'"
Luke 10:18
Stocks slipped again today, and a rally attempt failed into the close.
The Dollar continued to slip lower.
Gold and silver edged higher.
We will be getting the September Non-Farm Payrolls report for September on Friday.
Since this is often an occasion for a bear raid on the metals, those who do their daily prediction for a decline in the precious metals might get lucky.
It should be noted that all Non-Farm Payroll reports are created equal. Or more precisely, they may occur in different contexts.
All in all, precious metals are in a bull market that remains unbroken.
While they often move in a contrary manner, this does not mean that the Dollar must also decline. Sometimes they move in unison.
But because most people in the US are referring to the price of gold in Dollars, this inverse correlation may often hold true for that currency.
I am posting a little early today because I have an appointment at 4 PM.
If anything of note happens I might update the charts.
"Selfishness is not living as one wishes to live, it is asking others to live as one wishes.”
Oscar Wilde
“The world says: 'You have needs — satisfy them. Don't hesitate to satisfy your needs; indeed, expand your needs and demand more.' This is the worldly doctrine of today. And they believe that this is freedom. The result for the rich is isolation and suicide, for the poor, envy and murder.”
Fyodor Dostoyevsky
“Man has places in his heart which do not yet exist— and into them enters suffering, in order that they may have life.”
Léon Bloy
“Blessed is the servant who loves his brothers and sisters as much when they are sick and useless, as when they are well and of service to him. And blessed is he who loves his brothers and sisters as well when they are far off, as when they are by their side, and who would say nothing behind their back that he might not, in love, say before their face.
Keep a clear eye toward life's end. And remember that when you leave this earth, you can take nothing that you have received, but only what you have given.”
Francis of Assisi
Stocks were in risk on today, with financials and big cap techs especially leading the way higher.
Gold and silver also rallied, as the dollar moved lower.
Let's see if gold and silver can continue to rally in this post comex options expiration market.
Let us pray for those whose hearts are hardened against His grace and loving kindness by greed, fear, and pride, and the seductive illusion and crushing isolation of evil.
We pray that we all may experience the three great gifts of our Lord's suffering and triumph: repentance, forgiveness, and thankfulness. And in so doing, may we obtain abundant life, and with it the peace that surpasses all understanding.
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