04 December 2012

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts


A relatively uneventful day despite the updown wash and rinse in a range.

VIX is creeping up a bit.  Let's keep an eye on it.

Pandora guided lower after the close and the stock is getting beaten up after hours.

I think going over the 'fiscal cliff' is a decent bet, as it serves the political interests of both political parties.    There will be histrionics, and a market tantrum.  

Barry Ritholtz points out that the last day for proposing legislation for this year is 18 December. 






Sheila Bair On the Financial Crisis, Bank Capitalization, TBTF, and Reform





Net Asset Value Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds


As I suspected there were additional funds that were received by the Sprott Physical Silver Trust that were more recently booked as bullion and cash. These came from the underwriters take on their allotment as stated in this Nov 30 press release which updated the completion release of Nov 14.
"Including this exercise of the over-allotment option, the gross proceeds of the Offering were US$310,011,250, consisting of 23,575,000 Units offered at US$13.15 per Unit."

In a separate statement at another venue, Eric Sprott said that if there are any 'fails to deliver' in their bullion purchases, down to the last bar, they would announce them.

There was a two step bear raid on the metals this morning that was a bit fake, and provided a secondary buying opportunity for shorter term traders, particularly in silver.

I bought a largish position in silver during the opening ten minutes and added a little to gold. I am hedged.

I suspect that the US will go over this mythical 'fiscal cliff' and that the markets may lean on policy makers to attempt to get the things that they want, in the manner of TARP. So this *could* mean a lower stock market for a period of time, with pressure on other assets. But the negotiations are still in the early dancing stage, so it is hard to see how this might play out yet in detail. I like the probability of a dip over 'the cliff' which is largely theatrical.


03 December 2012

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Swiss Franc Cash Account Rates Negative


The most interesting news for me today was Credit Suisse Sets Negative Interest Rates For Cash Accounts.

The reaction in the euro - swiss cross trade was decided. The Swiss do not wish to see the franc appreciate because of their cross trade with the Eurozone.

Fiat. It is a matter of will. Watch and be amazed.





SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts


Wax on, wax off.




02 December 2012

Weekend Reading: Thomas Merton


Self-Love Stifles Our Being and Becoming


"The logic of worldly success rests on a fallacy: the strange error that our perfection depends on the thoughts and opinions and applause of other men...

The selfishness of an age that has devoted itself to the mere cult of pleasure has tainted the whole human race with an error that makes all our acts more or less lies against God...

The devil is no fool. He can get people feeling about heaven the way they ought to feel about hell. He can make them fear the means of grace the way they do not fear sin.

And he does so, not by light but by obscurity, not by realities but by shadows; not by clarity and substance, but by dreams and the creatures of psychosis. And men are so poor in intellect that a few cold chills down their spine will be enough to keep them from ever finding out the truth about anything...

Only the man who has had to face despair is really convinced that he needs mercy. Those who do not want mercy never seek it. It is better to find God on the threshold of despair than to risk our lives in a complacency that has never felt the need of forgiveness.

A life that is without problems may literally be more hopeless than one that always verges on despair...

Indeed, the truth that many people never understand, until it is too late, is that the more you try to avoid suffering, the more you suffer, because smaller and more insignificant things begin to torture you, in proportion to your fear of being hurt.

The one who does most to avoid suffering is, in the end, the one who suffers the most: and his suffering comes to him from things so little and so trivial that one can say that it is no longer objective at all. It is his own existence, his own being, that is at once the subject and the source of his pain, and his very existence and consciousness is his greatest torture...

Despair is the absolute extreme of self-love. It is reached when a person deliberately turns his back on all help from anyone else in order to taste the rotten luxury of knowing himself to be lost...

It is therefore of supreme importance that we consent to live not for ourselves but for others. When we so this we will be able first of all to face and accept our own limitations.

As long as we secretly adore ourselves, our own deficiencies will remain to torture us with an apparent defilement. But if we live for others, we will gradually discover that no expects us to be "as gods". We will see that we are human, like everyone else, that we all have weaknesses and deficiencies, and that these limitations of ours play a most important part in all our lives.

It is because of them that we need others and others need us. We are not all weak in the same spots, and so we supplement and complete one another, each one making up in himself for the lack in another...

To say that I am made in the image of God is to say that Love is the reason for my existence, for God is love. Love is my true identity. Selflessness is my true self. Love is my true character. Love is my name.”

Thomas Merton

A perfect love is not obtainable in this life. We are but sinners, attempting great things.

But love is our benchmark, our touchstone. It is how we are able to know if what we say or do or hold dear is founded in goodness and life, or in a destructive snare, a willfulness, the cult of the self, and death.

For love takes us out of ourselves and completes us. And the opposite of love is not hatred, but the selfishness of self-love, and the dark angel's first sin, pride.
“I think that the depth of Satan's pride is difficult for humans to understand, and therefore it is easy to fall into this error and partake of it, thinking, all the while, that we are instead doing something great and beautiful.”

Fyodor Dostoyevsky

01 December 2012

Ten Stocks Driving 88% of SP 500 Earnings Growth



Look at the concentration of financially related stocks in that top ten.

That speaks volumes about the nature of this Fed generated 'recovery.'

h/t The Big Picture