12 December 2012

Modern Monetary Theory And Its Toolbox


I think the essay excerpted at the bottom is a 'must read.'  If you do not have time for this intro, please read it. 


The shallow cynic will glibly say that what Modern Monetsry Theory describes is what we already have, so what is the difference. Let us just have more of it, and cut out the middlemen.  But that is not really the case. You have to see such a system of pervasive official value setting and willfulness close up to see the implications of its mindset and its full capabilities.

On the surface Modern Monetary Theory can seem to be an attractive proposition.    And it troubles me that some people whom I like and even admire seem to be favorable to it.   After a great deal of thought it appears to be the situation in which the cure is as bad as the disease, with reformers driven to pick up the tools of desperation and what looks like a quick fix.

The key objection one would naturally raise in considering Modern Monetary Theory is the protection of the value of the currency.  Domestically the use of official force is an obvious if unfortunate reach.  The real issue of acceptance of the currency at value comes down particularly in foreign trade where one cannot so easily enforce draconian rules designed to promote the value of the currency to some official prescription.

A short term solution is to maintain and expand your sphere of command and control until it overextends, fails, and collapses.   We have seen how this worked out in the former Soviet Union.

Foreign holders have the 'right of first refusal' on debt and currency. It is almost a tautology to say that most serious instance of inflation, including hyperinflation, start outside that country.

Often people are attracted to the principles of Modern Monetary Theory because it sounds 'ethical' and fair. Why pay interest on debt to evil bankers when you can merely print your own money? Never mind that most debt is held by private people as savings vehicles, in theory at least. The current balance of trade problems and surpluses held by some foreign countries are policy aberrations. Free trade is a canard that suits multinational interests, but that is another story.

As I have said before, I do not intend to justify the current financial system which is distorted and corrupt. No system is perfect and self-regulating, but some are more prone to corruption than others.

I do wish to point out that any currency system must have some balance, some limiting factor, that is difficult for people to circumvent with respect to the expansion of the currency. A commodity standard like gold is one, since gold cannot be created. A debt based central banking approach is another, because the marketplace has some immediate ability to react to expansionary policies.

A concentration of power in few hands leads invariably to corruption and abuses.

But rather than belabor this, here is an excerpt from a recent essay from 'New Economic Perspectives' on Modern Monetary Theory.  There is no need to debate this when one can merely peel back the fog of supposition and let it speak in its own words beyond the surface gloss.

The management mechanisms in the MMT toolbox are central economic planning to a far greater degree than we currently see in most developed nations, government allocation of resources, distribution of income at will, official propaganda (and presumably censorship) since the lie will tolerate none other, and foreign currency controls.

There is a juicy worm on the end of hook, but there is a hook in there nonetheless.  I have read and listened to most of their spiels, to the extent that one can work their way past the browbeating and obfuscation that true believers like to deliver to doubters.  I do not wish to be 'mean' but to me it seems to be an old fairy tale fraud in a new wrapper. 

An Alternative Meme for Money, Part 6: Alternative Framing on Inflation
By L. Randall Wray

As we have discussed, sovereign government cannot run out of the keystrokes it uses to mark-up balance sheets as it spends...Obviously, government cannot run out of these. Government can “afford” to buy what’s for sale in its own currency.

The question is not about affordability but rather concerns effects on the value of the currency and impacts on the pursuit of private interest.
a. If something is in scarce supply, more purchases of it by either government or private buyers might push up the price. A government purchase of something that is scarce can “crowd out” a private purchase. Government purchases need to be, and can be, planned to avoid undesired crowding out and price pressures.

b. ...government has at its disposal a number of options to reduce price pressure, including patriotic propaganda and rationing. It also has the big gun: taxes. An excise tax raises the cost to private buyers; an income tax reduces disposable income to free up production for the public purpose.
We never need rich folks’ money in order to provide for the poor. We can keystroke the bank accounts of the poor so that they won’t be poor. We increase taxes on the rich only when their spending threatens our currency with inflation. If there’s no inflation danger, there is no point in taxing the rich before keystroking the poor.

The rich also are much more likely to endanger the currency’s value by pulling out of the domestic currency and running to safe havens at the first sign of inflation... We need progressive taxes and inheritance taxes to protect our currency from antisocial behavior by the rich.

Most important: the goal of taxing the rich has nothing to do with raising government revenue. Taxes are used to keep the currency strong and to punish sin. An ideal sin tax raises no revenue because it eliminates sin. While we cannot achieve that ideal, we can make sin less enjoyable. It is fitting that those who already enjoy all the benefits of life at the top ought to suffer more when they are sinful...

To conclude:
1. When inflation threatens, in some circumstances it makes sense to raise taxes. Since the rich pose a greater inflation threat, put the taxes on them. Cash registers don’t discriminate, so tax those with greater purchasing power.

2. There are additional measures that can be taken when inflation pressures arise; depending on circumstances, they are probably more effective: rationing, targeted wage and price controls, patriotic saving.

3. At full employment it makes sense to tax the rich while providing income to the poor. At less than full employment, this is not necessary.

4. Government spending and taxing need not be closely linked; however, as the economy nears full employment taxes need to be raised if there are strong public purpose interests in continuing to increase government spending. The goal is not to increase government revenue, but to reduce competition for relatively scarce resources in order to direct them to the public interest.

5. Not only does the high income and thus potential spending by the rich threaten domestic value of the currency, there is a danger that the rich will speculate against the currency. This provides an additional justification for removing excessive income from them through taxes, and perhaps also for taxing their speculation. Again, the goal here is not to raise government revenue, but rather to punish the sin of anti-social excess.

6. Explaining that government cannot run out of its own keystrokes (or other records of its IOUs) does not mean that one is promoting run-away government spending. Rather, it means that one must confront the inflation danger directly, ensuring that government spending and tax policy take account of inflation pressures.

Read the entire essay here.


11 December 2012

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts


The capping actions in gold and silver are heavy handed and obvious.

Benny must have something in mind for the FOMC on Wednesday.





Both the SP and the Nas 100 have potential inverse Head and Shoulder formations lining up, with the close today around the respective necklines.

IF there is an announcement of a tentative fiscal cliff deal or some continuance motion adopted, watch out above.



10 December 2012

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - FOMC QE Unfolding


It seems that some on the Street agree with me that the Fed may decide to drop the sterilization portion of 'Operation Twist' and just straight up monetize debt rather than merely shift duration of instruments.

The practical factor is the dearth of short term instruments for the Fed to trade. The other is that the election is now past, and the 'restraint' that the Fed often shows during a presidential election is now off the table.

Will it happen at all? If it does will be it an expansion of the Fed's Balance Sheet of 85-100 billion dollars per month? Will the Fed act at all before the 'fiscal cliff' is resolved?

I am not sure, so I am hedged.

I doubt the Fed will do something more untoward, like expanding their balance sheet AND buying even more non-traditional instruments, at least compared to what they are already doing.

The cut-off for action this year on the 'fiscal cliff' is fast approaching. Although Boehner and Obama are in 'face to face' meetings now, Boehner must deliver a vote in the House, which may not be such an easy task given the intransigence of a sizable minority of the Congress.

The Administration could always try to pass a bill in the Senate, and then move to solve the House in reconciliation should they still remain obtusely opposed to any repeal of tax cuts, but that seems to be a work for next year and not the holiday season.

But who can tell what passes in the back rooms and hallways of power?

Have a pleasant evening.



SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Pass the Coffee


It is a sleepy market, thin and a bit skittish.

Much of the concern relates to what will happen if the US cross the 'fiscal cliff.'

FOMC meeting this week with an announcement at 12:30 on Wednesday.




Net Asset Value Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds


The Sprott Silver Premium is quite inexpensive by historical standards.



Rick Warren: A Life of Purpose





As some like to say, there is nothing new, nothing new under the sun. And there isn't. But that is not quite true; it is self-limiting view of things, when one strikes a cynical pose. And it is not a reason to discount what is truly new in life, the possibilities that are presented, and to ignore them.

What is new is you.

You have never been here before as you are, and will not be here again.

And what you do with life is therefore unique, the only thing which you can truly claim as your own and take with you, when you are no longer here. You will spend a long time carrying it, be it treasure or baggage, or most likely a mixture of both. So be sure that it is something that you can carry well and without shame, that satisfies you, and that you can love. Most are not called to greatness, but to do the work of the day, the little things to which we are called, and to do them well and with a loving heart. And this is the purpose of your life.

Fear not that your life shall come to an end, but rather, that it shall never have had a beginning. For that is to choose a darkness and an emptiness without end or fulfillment.

God beholds you. He calls you by your name. He sees you and understands you as He made you. He knows what is in you, all your peculiar feelings and thoughts, your dispositions and likings, your strengths and your weaknesses. He views you in your day of rejoicing and in your day of sorrow. He sympathizes in your hopes and your temptations. He interests Himself in all your anxieties and remembrances, all the risings and fallings of your spirit.

He encompasses you round and bears you in His arms. He notes your very countenance, whether smiling or in tears. He looks tenderly upon you. He hears your voice, the beating of your heart, and your very breathing. You do not love yourself better than He loves you.

You cannot shrink from pain more than He dislikes your bearing it; and if He puts it on you, it is as you would put it on yourself, if you would be wise, for a greater good afterwards.

God has created me to do Him some definite service; He has committed some work to me which He has not committed to another. I have my mission -- I may never know it in this life but I shall be told it in the next.

I am a link in a chain, a bond of connection between persons. He has not created me for naught.

I shall do good, I shall do His work. I shall be an angel of peace, a preacher of truth in my own place while not intending it if I do but keep His commandments.

Therefore I will trust Him. Whatever I am, I can never be thrown away. If I am in sickness, my sickness may serve Him; in perplexity, my perplexity may serve Him. If I am in sorrow, my sorrow may serve Him.

He does nothing in vain. He knows what He is about.

He may take away my friends. He may throw me among strangers. He may make me feel desolate, make my spirits sink, hide my future from me -- still He knows what He is about.

Let us feel what we really are--sinners attempting great things. Let us simply obey God's will, whatever may come. He can turn all things to our eternal good. Easter day is preceded by the forty days of Lent, to show us that they only who sow in tears shall reap in joy.

Fear not that thy life shall come to an end, but rather that it shall never have had a beginning.

May the Lord support us all the day long, till the shades lengthen, and the evening comes, and the busy world is hushed, and the fever of life is over, and our work is done.

John Henry Newman