29 May 2014

The Policy Errors of Barack Hoover Obama and What Happens Next


“Much like Herbert Hoover, Barack Obama is a man attempting to realize a stirring new vision of his society without cutting himself free from the dogmas of the past, without accepting the inevitable conflict. Like Hoover, his is bound to fail.”

Kevin Baker, Barack Hoover Obama: The Best and the Brightest Blow it Again, Harper's 2009


"Hoover quickly developed a reputation as uncaring. He cut unemployment figures that reached his desk, eliminating those he thought were only temporarily jobless and not seriously looking for work. In June 1930, a delegation came to see him to request a federal public works program. Hoover responded to them by saying, 'Gentlemen, you have come sixty days too late. The Depression is over.' He insisted that 'nobody is actually starving' and that 'the hoboes...are better fed than they have ever been.' He claimed that the vendors selling apples on street corners had 'left their jobs for the more profitable one of selling apples...'

Hoover was a stubborn man who found it difficult to respond to the problems posed by the Depression. 'There are some principles that cannot be compromised,' Hoover remarked in 1936. "Either we shall have a society based upon ordered liberty and the initiative of the individual, or we shall have a planned society that means dictation no matter what you call it.... There is no half-way ground.' He was convinced that the economy would fix itself."

Digital History, President Hoover

The policy errors being committed by Barack Obama and his team are all similar to that which J. Kenneth Galbraith cited in the Hoover Administration. That is, the 'trickle down' approach, which is treating a broken system as if it were still a functioning ideal, an ideal of the efficient markets hypothesis that probably never really existed in the first place.

If there is any corrective pain to be dealt, it will be delivered from the bottom up, and attributed to the inexorable necessities of 'The System.'  The powerful and favored few, however, will be fully cradled from its effects in a generous web of officially sanctioned protection. 

I find it striking that Hoover chose to crush The Bonus Army in 1932,  which involved sanctioned government violence against WW I veterans, and that Obama took the same draconian approach with the Occupy Movement which was a largely peaceful protest against Wall Street, for example.

His is a war against whistleblowers and dissent, with a generous free pass given to some of the most egregious misdeeds of those at the top of the financial pyramid in terms of both enforcement and indictment.  If there is anything that binds the elites in America, it is their urge for getting paid, and spectacularly and shamelessly so.

The only crime in Obama's America is to be both powerless and non-compliant.   And perhaps to speak of any of its secrets and sacred cows, of which there are many. 

Why does this happen? Because most of those who are in a position to reform the system at this time are creatures of the system, who are beholden to the system, who are caught in its credibility trap, and who see that system from a particular perspective and with a very selective bias. And that is, from the top-down.

This is a government of the system, by the system, and for the system.  And it is a system that is unsustainable except by increasing amounts of fraud and force.

What comes next depends on which type of leadership comes next. The range of examples from the 1930's provide some preview, from Roosevelt to Mussolini, from left to right, with a large assortment in between.

But for now it is hard to tell if there if there are any genuine differences amongst them, all these leaders we see nowadays, all these creatures of The System.  One might suspect that this is all a stage show, with the various factions and fights well scripted like the faux spectacles of World Wrestling Entertainment.  And once elected, they just take their orders from management, and collect their generous paychecks, often after their terms of 'public service.'  But at all costs, the show must go on.

This discussion below is from 2009. It is interesting to see this early days discussion from our own perspective, five years later. But I think the die was cast when Obama disclosed his appointments, especially to his economic team.

Related: Obama and Woodrow Wilson

28 May 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Silver Stonewalls the Metals Bears At $19


STONEWALL JACKSON
“Never take counsel of your fears.”

Stonewall Jackson

Tomorrow the June gold and silver contracts take center stage.

Overall the markets will be watching the first revision of 1Q GDP tomorrow morning. Even if it is negative I am going to be surprised if it has a negative effect on stocks that carries for more than a day.

I do think we are in for a major correction in equities this year, but most likely not yet barring some exogenous event.  I am watching for any of the characteristic signature of a major market top. I'll let you know if one shows up.  September is more likely because by then the hopes of a recovery will either be proven, or begin to fade.

Let's see how June goes. There was nothing on the delivery side, and the Comex warehouses are scrambling to put some gold on the books ahead of another delivery month.

Silver held 19$ like a champ.   Gold is a sleeping giant.

Have a pleasant evening.






SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Revision of First Quarter GDP Tomorrow Morning


Stocks held their ground today, as the big tickle will be the revision of the 1Q GDP numbers.

As you know when it first came out I suggested it was artificially high, and would be revised lower. I think we may see that tomorrow. Keep an eye on the deflator.

Even if it is negative, which is probably will ultimately be, it will be blamed on the weather, and the attention will be directed to 2Q GDP which is expected to be a high positive number. Or at least expected to be so by those who are touting stocks.

Have a pleasant evening.






27 May 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Metals Hit For Comex June Options Expiration


"The new America, instead, is fast becoming a vast ghetto in which all of us, conservatives and progressives, are being bled dry by a relatively tiny oligarchy of extremely clever financial criminals and their castrato henchmen in government, whose job is to be actors on TV and put on a good show."

Matt Taibbi, Griftopia

As I reminded several times last week, today was an option expiration on the Comex for the precious metals, for the important June contract.

The metals were hit in an attempt at a 'mini-puke' in the manner of the Barclays digital options two-step, and for much the same reasons.

Who buys these metals options one might ask, given the sheer amount of deceit and manipulation that has been exposed in so many instruments and situations?  

That is a good question.  Probably the same people who buy many of Wall Street's bearish ETFs, IPOs, and other flawed products that are so adverse to wealth and value in their design.

And who are these people and the venues that continue to attempt to justify and excuse the inexcusable, and make the obvious seem improbable?

If it were not for the gullible, the naïve, and the careless, scoundrels would be otherwise obliged to find productive employment.

This too shall pass.  Nothing has changed.

Have a pleasant evening.




SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Record High On the SP 500


Stocks were in rally mode today. purportedly off 'better than expected' economic news this morning.

This looks a lot like an end of month rally and a short squeeze. Let it run for now, but it does not seem to be sustainable by the economic news, but rather a child of the Fed and dodgy accounting. 

Revised GDP out later this week.

Have a pleasant evening.




23 May 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Option Expiration and An Active Contract Month


There will be an option expiration for the June contract on next Tuesday, and the active June contract will take center stage from the relatively quiet month of May.

Speaking of options expirations, a small fry at Barclays was tossed over to the FSA when he went out of his way to cheat a large and presumably important customer on an options position. You may read about it here.

Manipulation of the precious metals markets is often as blatant and obvious as what this junior joker from Barclays did.  One can see it on the tape, but the omerta that surrounds the scams in the world of crony capitalism generally prevails, and nothing comes of it unless a 'very serious player' is harmed. 

There are laws, and then there are the real, unwritten rules, and it is getting more blatant as nothing is done about it. It stops being an outlier and becomes 'accepted.'  That is what is called moral hazard. And it is corrosive to markets and to government.   

Nothing important happened yesterday in the Comex gold warehouses.

June may be an interesting month for the metals, and more likely more interesting than May.

As a reminder, the business and government of the United States will be closed for business on Monday, for Memorial Day.  Try to carry on without their guidance.

Have a pleasant weekend.






SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Where Are the Customers' Yachts?


"Where the Lottery was concerned, even people who could barely read and write seemed capable of intricate calculations and staggering feats of memory. There was a whole tribe of men who made their living simply by selling systems, forecasts, and lucky amulets. Winston...was aware (indeed everyone in the party was aware) that the prizes were largely imaginary.

Only small sums were actually paid out, the winners of the big prizes being nonexistent persons.”

George Orwell, 1984

The SP 500 set shivers of 'whoop whoop' through the hollowed hall of the NYSE today, as the morlocks celebrated a new closing high.

This will be a three day holiday weekend in the States.

We will get a bit more on the economic news front next week, including the second rewrite of the first quarter GDP.

There is no recovery.  

Have a pleasant weekend.