Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Mr. & Mrs. Toad's Wild Ride

The big story today was in the stock markets, with a hugely wide ranging outside reversal from buoyant expectations fueled by ECB QE to a steep decline on pessimism about earnings, sparked by KBH but other stocks with 'good earnings' that sold off like Alcoa.

And then when the markets started doubting Draghi's ability to prod Bubba and the EU to go along with QE, stocks sold off pretty hard, with a little bounce back to unchanged near the end of day.

Oil had a big selloff, and then a late day bounce on hopes/speculation that the reports coming out tonight and tomorrow would show a draw down in inventories.

So all in all it was an 'exciting' day if you were a trader, and if not, then it was just another day.

Silver held its gain for the day, but gold gave it up with a little retrenchment.  

 

After the last few days advances on what looked like a 'fear trade' or flight to safety we were due for a pullback as I had suggested.  It is the character of this pullback that will tell us quite a bit about the nature of this rally and any sustainability. 

Let's see if gold can gather itself together and take the next step to break out.

Have a pleasant evening.

 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Mother's Little Helper, What a Drag(hi)

Stocks had a big rally on the open today with the Dow Industrials up a sold triple digits, about 280 points.

Prices were wallowing at these levels, when KB Homes came out with their results, which took the stock up a bit. But then things were not so rosy on the conference call, with KBH backing off projects in Houston and Orange County. And then they signaled that there would be pressure on profit margins.

Bam! KBH went from up to down pretty sharply in a Manhattan minute.

 

That and some other company news had the markets a bit put off, with word on the twitter that some of the trading desks were selling calls to try and lock in some profits at these levels.

 

Then the word came out doubting the QE from the ECB that the markets were already pricing in to this bubble rally, and BAM!

 

So we ended up with an outside reversal day, which in technical parlance is not encouraging.   If we were in any kind of normal market we would be looking for more downside action.

 

However, news out of Europe about a court ruling, non-binding as it may be, on QE will likely move the market as irrationally in one direction as another.  So let's see how things go overnight.

 

At the end of the day, this is your stock market on drugs, those drugs being peddled by the Central Banks who are subsidizing the well-to-do punters almost directly with this trickle down QE approach that does little or nothing for the public, but helps to jigger financial paper.

 

Have a pleasant evening.

 

 

 

 

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Gold Makes a Move to Break Out

With the commodity sector continuing to slump led lower by oil, we had a refreshing change in pace with gold pushing up higher towards a break out territory.

We will have to see how gold follows through, and handles the likely consolidation or retracement at some point, to gauge whether this is truly 'something different' than we have been experiences in this precious metal bear market.

Silver moved higher as well, but was not showing the type of feistiness that we would expect to see in a precious metals breakout. This is not a big thing yet, as gold is clearly leading the way, with silver following.

IF gold can stick a close back in the old trading range above 1270 AND silver confirms with a breakout of its own, I would say its a new market trend. But not quite yet.

It was nice to see gold take out the 100 DMA which a number of traders watch, and run right up to the 130 DMA which is what I tend to watch. The 260 DMA is up around where I would feel more comfortable with a trend change call.

Still, no complaints on the change of pace for today.

Have a pleasant evening.

 

 

 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Earning Season Commences with Alcoa

Stocks were a bit weak today, with yet another session with triple digit moves in the Dow Industrials, both up and down.

As you might expect, volatility edged a bit higher.

After the bell Alcoa kicked off earnings season for the 4Q2014 with a beat on both earnings and revenues.

There will be more macroeconomic news towards the latter part of the week, with earnings some coming in regularly.

Have a pleasant evening.

NAV Premium of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds

Gold is a standout in the commodity sector today.

The World Is a Business, Mr. Beale

“Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world.”

Carroll Quigley, Tragedy and Hope,  p. 278

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Postcards From the Great Emptiness

Bert Lahr in Waiting For Godot

“We who are born into this age of freedom and independence and the self must undergo this loneliness.  It is the price we pay for these times of ours.”

Natsume Sôseki

"The issue isn't just jobs. Even slaves had jobs. The issue is wages.

Jim Hightower

 

The headline 'Jobs Number' came in better than expected at an adjusted +252,000.

 

And the Unemployment Rate fell more than expected to 5.6%.

 

Yay us!  We win again!

 

Why weren't stocks rallying with these glorious numbers?

 

Perhaps the market noticed that average wages fell much more than expected, and the Labor Participation Rate continues to decline.

 

Well beat us with a selfie stick.  What does that mean?

 

Perhaps it means, like the accounting numbers of IPOs being puked out by Wall Street, that the results are 'tailored' misrepresentations of reality. In other words that a Holden Caulfield might have used, The Recovery™ is a phony.

 

Gold has marched up tightly into overhead resistance as can be seen from the chart below.  As is often the custom with a Non-Farm Payrolls number that exceed expectations, gold did not drop, but went a bit higher. 

 

It is the next week that will now be much more important.   The wiseguys will often trot out a two-step, rather than the simpler smash and grab, when we have too many amateurs anticipating a move in some particular way.

 

But let's not guess.  Let's see what happens next week.  Follow through is everything, and breaking the continuing downtrend of lower highs and lower lows is the only way in which one might say that the trend is broken and the bottom is in on this long bear market in precious metals.

 

There was nothing important happening at the Comex warehouses or in the delivery report, which is not unusual since we are in an inactive month.  This is opposed to an active month, in which there is a great appearance of activity, but little or nothing actually happens either.

 

The news came out today that Mitt Romney wants to take another run for President in 2016 because he doesn't think Jeb Bush or Chris Christie can win.   Darn, I was hoping for another battle of the dynasties in 2016.  Or competing crime families, but that might just be a given these days.

 

Samuel Beckett couldn't write this Théâtre de l'Absurde.

 

Have a pleasant weekend.