27 July 2015

Providence Is the Hidden Hand of God


"Wonderful providence indeed which is so silent, yet so efficacious, so constant, so unerring. This is what baffles the power of Satan. He cannot discern the Hand of God in what goes on; and though he would fain meet it and encounter it, in his mad and blasphemous rebellion against heaven, he cannot find it.

Crafty and penetrating as he is, yet his thousand eyes and his many instruments avail him nothing against the majestic serene silence, the holy imperturbable calm which reigns through the providences of God. Crafty and experienced as he is, he appears like a child or a fool, like one made sport of, whose daily bread is but failure and mockery, before the deep and secret wisdom of the Divine Counsels.

He makes a guess here, or does a bold act there, but all in the dark. He knew not of Gabriel's coming, and the miraculous conception of the Virgin, or what was meant by that Holy Thing which was to be born, being called the Son of God. He tried to kill him, and he made martyrs of the innocent children; he tempted the Lord of all with hunger and with ambitious prospects; he sifted the Apostles, and got none but one who already bore his own name, and had been already given over as a devil.

He brought into the world the very salvation which he feared and hated. He accomplished the Atonement of that world, whose misery he was plotting. Wonderfully silent, yet resistless course of God's providence!  'Verily, Thou art a God that hidest Thyself, O God of Israel, the Saviour;' and if even devils, sagacious as they are, spirits by nature and experienced in evil, cannot detect His hand, while He works, how can we hope to see it except by that way which the devils cannot take, by loving faith?"

John Henry Newman, PS 17

Do not despair in not understanding all and fully, for this is our nature and necessity.  Be serene in having the grace to know the next step, but none further.  For this is a part of our protection against the forces of the evil of this world.

We surely and clearly know what to do, having been told plainly and many times by His messengers and the promptings of our conscience. We are to love the Lord our God, with our whole hearts, our whole minds, our whole soul, and our whole strength, and our neighbors as ourselves.  This is the heart of the law, and the rule of our warfare.

The mystery of Providence is a grace that gives those who accept it a power that is incomprehensible to the calculating mind of evil, that knows only what it can see and measure, according to its own pride and willfulness. 

And it confounds the ever-fading powers of the restless servants of this world and their wickedness in high places.  That is the love of God, which is inexplicable and cannot be seen, except in cherished glimpses and with a limited understanding, by those who are already His through their continuing faithfulness.  He speaks to them in their hearts, if they will but listen.

This is no complacency, no retreat from the world, no quiet acceptance of evil but a call to action.  We are directed not to linger, and to watch for more signs and wonders, gifts and consolations, not an endless menu of comforts so that we may ride comfortably to heaven, but to bear up with what we have been given and to do His work, but with love. 

We are called to a love which is transformative when it is living for others, but a vain preoccupation and a kind of twilight of lingering misery when it is not.  His call occurs, but we must rise and follow.

His yoke, though gentle, both constrains our natures and leads us through periods of dryness and confusion, which are often put most heavily on those called to lead.  And as we may need them, unexpectedly, there are the consolations, His gentle mercies.

We will contemplate the face of God in the next world, but in this, we are called to action and His work.   Nothing is wasted in God's economy.   He knows what He is about.

 

24 July 2015

Shanghai On Track For Record Year With 69 Tonnes Gold Withdrawn In Latest Week


"A lie would make no sense unless the truth were felt to be dangerous."

Alfred Adler

Pet rocks.






When The Wall Street Journal finally notices China.




Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Rebound - Option Expiration Next Week


“In a room where
people unanimously maintain
a conspiracy of silence,
one word of truth
sounds like a pistol shot.”

Czesław Miłosz

Gold led a stiff rebound off support at 1180 today as it just was not going to go any lower, and the wiseguys grabbed some profits off the table.
This was a very obviously short term oversold condition. 
Now we will see if gold and silver can put in a real bottom here, or something else.
Next Tuesday will be the August metals expiration at The Bucket Shop.  August is also an active month for gold.
I have included the latest 'owners per ounce' charts from Nick Laird at sharelynx.com.  They were able to knock down the open interest a bit, but could not produce more physical bullion for sale yet.
The Fed accidentally leaked its staff projections about rate hikes today.  It looks like one for this year and four more next year for about 1.26%.
I hope they wait for The Recovery to get on their magic bus.
Have a pleasant weekend.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Slippery Slope

 

US equities continued to slide today as the recent makeover rally designed to put some lipstick on some new tech pigs has continued to retreat.

Stock had their worst week of the year. I hope you were able to take something off the table.

New housing sales slumped badly according to this morning's economic data.

We are obviously in the rinse cycle now of the usual wash n' rinse mo-mo scam that substitutes for market price discovery these days.

Let's see if it keeps going or continues to stay well-behaving and responsive to the whims of the algos and insiders.

Have a pleasant weekend.





 

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds


The discount on CEF is remarkable.

The gold to silver ratio is quite high.
 
Both metals are oversold.

If the precious metals rebound silver will have quite a bit of catching up to do, and will likely outperform to the upside as they have outperformed to the downside.   Beta giveth, and beta taketh away.

Silver has done this over the last six months for example.




23 July 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Though the Heavens May Fall


"No one today likes truth: utility and self interest have long ago been substituted for truth. We live in a nightmare of falsehoods, and there are few who are sufficiently awake and aware to see things as they are. Our first duty is to clear away illusions and recover a sense of reality.

If war should come, it will do so on account of our delusions, for which our tormented conscience attempts to find moral excuses. To recover a sense of reality is to recover the truth about ourselves and the world in which we live, and thereby to gain the power of keeping this world from falling apart."

Nikolai Alexandrovich Berdyaev

There was intraday commentary titled The Epicenter of the Next Financial Crisis and overnight commentary on the precious metals, Free Markets at Work.

I get the feeling sometimes that we have become a nation of conmen and their servants, who plague the great mass of people who are preoccupied with raising families and just getting by.

As we have seen, in the latter part of the 20th century, people had forgotten, or more properly had been persuaded to disregard, the lessons of history and the reforms put in place in the 1930's.   And to our regret the conmen and their enablers were able to get their hands in our pockets, and grab hold of our wallets.  And we have not been able to get their slimy hands out of pockets yet. 

How fitting that in the next election we can once again consider voting for a Bush or a Clinton.  Some choice.

When the time comes, and it is coming as it always does, we should forgive, but not forget. 

And we should let justice be done, though the heavens may fall. 

Have a pleasant evening.
 

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Reavers: Time To Go



Simon: I don't understand.
Zoe: You've never heard of Reavers?
Simon: Well, campfire stories of men gone savage on the edge of space, killing and—
Zoe: They're not stories.
Simon: What happens if they board us?
Zoe: If they take the ship, they'll rape us to death, eat our flesh and sew our skins into their clothing. And if we're very very lucky, they'll do it in that order.

Joss Whedon, Serenity

It looks like equities are getting set up for another 'big short.' 

It is not quite clear whether we are at full apogee or not yet.  If the international situation clears up, there is always plenty of paper left to take it higher.

This market is now an artificial construct.  It is a wealth extraction machine, more poorly regulated than the average casino.

It is hard to tell where safety may lie.   The usual suspects have most of the usual places covered.

But fortunately the abusers of civil society among us these days are not archcriminals, are not like the mythical hordes of the past. and most are not even extraordinarily intelligent, enough to hold and be successful in a legitimate profession.

They do not allow most of the normal prohibitions of conscience or human empathy to give them pause.  They tend to be verbally acute, emotionally shallow, and mildly delusional.  They may dress well and have admirers amongst the media and the public.

On the positive side, they are not too lazy to steal.  Madoff may have worked very hard, but at the end of the day he was just a gangster.    Most are just sociopaths who have chosen to hold a pen instead of a gun.

And it is not just Wall Street.  People are great imitators,  And when illicit behaviour and monopoly business tactics become tolerated they can soon enough become commonplace.   The corruption and lack of moral principle and judicious moderation in Big Pharma and other 'service sectors' are appallingly fashionable.

If we can ever find enough honorable people to uphold the law, and give them the support that they deserve, we may find that a fear of physical punishment will have most of these modern day crooks cutting deals and turning state's evidence, or running for other places in their jets, like vermin scattering when a light shines upon them. 

And that will be a good day.

Have a pleasant evening.