01 October 2015

Silver Coin Premiums Climb As Shortages Build - Mints Shooting Blanks


"The U.S. Mint began setting weekly sales quotas for its flagship American Eagle silver coins in July because it can't meet demand, and the Canadian mint followed suit after record monthly sales in July. In Australia, the Perth Mint sold a record of more than 2.5 million ounces of silver this month, nearly four times more than in August, and has begun rationing supply of a new line of coins this month, a mint official said.

'Silver [coin] demand is absolutely through the roof,' said Neil Vance, wholesale manager at the Perth Mint. 'There seems to be a bit of frenzy as people think there is a shortage of silver. But in fact it is a (crunch in) manufacturing capacity.'

While demand has risen in response to the slump in spot prices to $14.33 an ounce in late July and its subsequent drop to fresh six-year lows below $14 an ounce in August, mint officials also said they were caught out by the sudden interest in coins. In July, the U.S. mint halted sales for almost three weeks after running out of 'blanks', which are used to make coins."

Some investors like to own physical metal to protect from volatility in other assets, particularly currencies and stocks, and to hedge against geopolitical and economic upheaval. The CBOE Volatility index, or VIX, of U.S. stocks - popularly known as the "fear index" - briefly jumped to its highest since January 2009 earlier this year.

At the U.S. Mint in West Point, New York, where the American Eagle is made, the plant is operating three shifts and paying staff overtime, a spokesman said.

The Austrian Mint, which has begun allocating sales of its Philharmonic silver coins, has increased production of silver blanks after higher-than-expected demand in July and August, a spokeswoman said.

In his 35 years of dealing precious metals, Roy Friedman, vice president of sales and trading at Manfra, Tordella & Brookes, one of the biggest U.S. wholesale coin dealers, said he could not recall seeing a squeeze in supplies of North American silver coins spilling over to coins made in Austria and the U.K. to the degree seen this year.

Dealers and mints trace the supply squeeze to a burst of buying by mom-and-pop investors in the United States, who scrambled to scoop up coins they considered to be at bargain levels after spot silver prices in early July sank to six-year lows."

BMarcy Nicholson, A. Ananthalakshmi and Jan Harvey, Silver-coin shortage shows bright side of 'precious metal collapse'

I would be careful about paying too high a premium for some of these coins.  They seem to be driven by a coin shortage moreso than a silver bullion shortage.

The difference between the American Silver Eagle and the European Silver Philharmonic/Canadian Maple Leaf is a strong indication that the pricing is not entirely rational.







30 September 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - End of Quarter, Miners Catch a Bid


The miners outperformed the metals today for the end of the third quarter.  I am getting much more interested in the miners at these prices, and my interest will become stronger if the metals can manage to sustain a rally out of this bear market trend.

If the metals rally, I would expect the mining sector to outperform given its beaten down condition and its higher beta to the metal prices.  But that is a big 'if.'

Non-Farm payrolls on Friday.

The active month has flipped over to gold for October and it was reflected in the delivery report from yesterday.

The slow bleed of metal out of the warehouses continues.

Have a pleasant evening.









SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - End of 3rd Quarter


Stocks managed a bounce for the end of the quarter.

Non-Farm payrolls on Friday.

Economic news continue to bring a message of a sluggish recovery plagued by unequal gains and sluggish aggregate demand.

Plenty of tail risks overseas and in the economy.

Have a pleasant evening.






NAV Premiums of Precious Metal Trusts and Funds


Both Sprott Funds are getting a little low on cash.




29 September 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday


"There is a tide in the affairs of men, Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat, And we must take the current when it serves
Or lose our ventures."

William Shakespeare, Julius Caesar

Yes it is almost that time again.

Tomorrow will be the end of the third quarter, and on Friday we will have another Non-Farm Payrolls report.

This report will be watched closely, with the idea of the Fed raising rates, or not.

Gold took a little hit today, but silver closed a bit higher.  This is an active month for silver.

There were no deliveries posted at The Bucket Shop yesterday.

Gold continues to bleed slowly out of the warehouses.  Silver is streaming out of the Scotia Mocatta warehouse, almost emptying it relative to the other warehouses.

As my godfather, who lived to be 89, used to say:  starość nie radość.   Old age is no joke.

 Have a pleasant evening.







SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - End of Third Quarter Tomorrow


Stocks had a wide ranging day, finishing up nearly unchanged.

The end of the third quarter is upon us. Shenanigans may be forthcoming.

Have a pleasant evening.





28 September 2015

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Roll On Big River of Gold


"There are two kinds of realists: those who manipulate facts and those who create them. The West requires nothing so much as men able to create their own reality."

Henry Kissinger, 1963


"But in these cases
We still have judgment here, that we but teach
Bloody instructions, which, being taught, return
To plague the inventor: this even-handed justice
Commends the ingredients of our poisoned chalice
To our own lips..."

Shakespeare, Macbeth

People take their fashions from the leadership.  And the leadership and role models in our culture are emblematic of our failures.

In the news, Swiss Name Seven Banks In Precious Metals Rigging Probe.

Precious metals took a hit today, as I thought that they might.

The rally last week had more to do with the option expiration than it did with disclosures of physical tightness of gold bullion in particular.

Glencore the commodity firm took a big hit today based on a sell-side analysts forecasts of doom.

The miners were taken out to the wood shed.  I am seeing some big companies priced at levels I was buying them in 2002.  .

I do believe this is going to come down to hard tacks.  The bullion buyers of the world markets are going to keep the physical flow going until something breaks.

The  wiseguys lack all restraint, and the regulators are failing to provide adult supervision because of conflicted interests and.utopian ideologies about 'naturally free markets.'

The bubble in junk paper is rolling over as can be seen on the chart below.  It has plenty of room below it thanks to the Fed's misdirected policy errors.

There was very little activity at The Bucket Shop to report on from Friday.

Potential claims per ounce of register gold are 262:1.    The shills and trolls say don't look at it, means nothing.  As well they might, as their true loyalties demand.   They mention everything except that this has never happened before in the last twenty years.

But it means nothing.  Don't trust your lying eyes.  Most everything is being settled on the side, over-the-counter, at undisclosed prices so as not to perturb the public pricing structure. And yet so little actually leaves the warehouses, at least for gold.  Odd market price discovery mechanism that.

London is where the physical bullion is gathered, and it is flowing in an easterly direction.

Roll on, gold float, roll on.

Have a pleasant evening.