10 March 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Credibility Trapped


"Even if TARP saved our financial system from driving off a cliff back in 2008, absent meaningful reform, we are still driving on the same winding mountain road, but this time in a faster car."

Neil Barofsky


"The people who designed the [bailout] plans are either in the pocket of the banks or they’re incompetent."

Joseph Stiglitz


“In poor countries, officials receive explicit bribes; in D.C. they get the sophisticated, implicit, unspoken promise to work for large corporations.”

Nassim Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes


"...the biggest risk we can take is to try the same old politics with the same old players and expect a different result."

Barack Obama, Democratic National Convention 2008


"But at some point the Obama Administration should acknowledge that this particular former CEO of Goldman Sachs is still driving the policy bus.  If the Republicans are in control of the Congress come next January, maybe they should subpoena [Robert] Rubin to appear periodically. At least then we all can hear directly to the person who is actually making national economic policy."

Chris Whalen, The World According to Robert Rubin


"On Sunday afternoon, facing a revolt by his own party’s senators, Obama dumped Larry [Summers] as likely replacement for Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.

But the fact that Obama even tried to shove Summers down the planet’s throat tells us more about Obama than Summers—and whom Obama works for. Hint: You aren’t one of them."

Greg Palast, Larry Summers: Goldman Sacked


"After dinner, Larry [Summers] leaned back in his chair and offered me some advice. I had a choice. I could be an insider or I could be an outsider. Outsiders can say whatever they want. But people on the inside don’t listen to them.

Insiders, however, get lots of access and a chance to push their ideas. People — powerful people — listen to what they have to say. But insiders also understand one unbreakable rule: They don’t criticize other insiders."

Elizabeth Warren

Here is my end of an exchange today, with some editing for clarity completeness, between myself and my Samoan attorney, while exchanging some anecdotes about the current climate of corruption within the Beltway and the NYC metropolitan area.  He is well informed of the doings in the halls of officialdom.
This gets to the heart of my theory of 'the credibility trap' which you may have seen on my site.

These professional bureaucrats and financiers are so intricately complicit in, and so benefited by, the broken system that we have now that they cannot talk about the real problems. They are very much a part of the problem.

They cannot engage in effective reforms because in doing so they would:
a) indict themselves and their predecessors and colleagues, and impugn their reputation for competency and/or integrity, and
b) would hamper their very lucrative careers in a system that they cannot afford to change or meaningfully reform.

There are very serious consequences for speaking the truth these days. This explains much of our current problems.  They are incapable of fixing things without the cover/incentive of a very serious event, either financial or something more exogenous..

Perhaps the slogan for these pampered princes should be 'in for a penny, in for a trillion dollars, because it's all Other People's Money, and I am doing just fine.'

So when I identify various politicians, regulators, and pundits as 'caught in a credibility trap' this is what I mean.

The people are starting to 'get this' even if they cannot describe it eloquently.   And they are therefore seeking to use their votes to toss out the insiders and bring in what they hope will be real change.

Here is my more 'formal' definition of the credibility trap.

"A credibility trap is a condition wherein the financial, political and informational functions of a society have been compromised by corruption and fraud, so that the leadership cannot effectively reform, or even honestly address, the problems of that system without impairing and implicating, at least incidentally, a broad swath of the power structure, including themselves.

The status quo tolerates the corruption and the fraud because they have profited at least indirectly from it, and would like to continue to do so. Even the impulse to reform within the power structure is susceptible to various forms of soft blackmail and coercion by the system that maintains and rewards.

And so a failed policy and its support system become self-sustaining, long after it is seen by objective observers to have failed. In its failure it is counterproductive, and an impediment to recovery in the real economy. Admitting failure is not an option for the thought leaders who receive their power from that system.

The continuity of the structural hierarchy must therefore be maintained at all costs, even to the point of becoming a painfully obvious, organized hypocrisy."

Gold and silver rocketed higher today after the ECB pulled out the bazooka loaded with some unconventional weapons, largely designed to benefit the European Banks.

Never have so many suffered so much for such an unworthy few.

There was little real activity in The Bucket Shop. The scorecards are below.

Now at least we know why the silly whacking of gold was the thing to do the past couple days. They knew it would run when Draghi dropped the hammer, and did not want it to take out key overhead resistance with a lot of momentum.

They 'have to control the price of gold, manage it.'   Because otherwise it might tell the truth.

Have a pleasant evening.











SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Wide-Ranging and Wobbly


The markets seem to be trading with the same kind of edginess as if they were playing Russian roulette.

Have a pleasant evening.





09 March 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - And Now the Movie, Folks...


“A crowd whose discontent has risen no higher than the level of slogans is only a crowd. But a crowd that understands the reasons for its discontent and knows the remedies is a vital community, and it will have to be reckoned with."

Wendell Berry

Gold and silver gave up a little of their rather impressive gains for the year today.

I heard this was the strongest yearly start for gold since the 1970's.

There was little to no precious metals action in The Bucket Shop and its environs yesterday.

Watching the crestfallen faces of the MSNBC media muppets last night when Sanders stunned Hillary in Michigan was priceless.  Almost as good as watching Debbie Wasserman Schultz trying to silence Sanders supporters.

Most traders are watching what the European Central Bank, aka the Sons of Anarchy, Brussels Originals, will deliver in the way of stimulus tomorrow, most likely in the form of additionally negative interest rates, and how much.

So we should probably watch for it too.

Have a pleasant evening.







SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Turn Bounce or Market Turn?


It was hard to tell if the little rally today was just a technical bounce or a real market turn.

Let's see what happens.

Have a pleasant evening.






08 March 2016

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - The Waves Break Both Ways


Kilgore:
(gesturing to ocean)
See how they break both ways? One guy can break right, one left, simultaneous.
What do you think of that?

Lance:
I think we ought to wait for the tide to come up.

Apocalypse Now Redux

Gold and silver pulled back a bit from overhead resistance today.

The US dollar closed slightly higher in the DX index which is mostly a Yen-Euro-Pound metric.

The chart formations are all potential for now, with nothing having been resolved yet either way. The 'handle' on the gold chart *could* interpret and resolve as a handle, or an ascending wedge. The probabilities in a heavily politicized market are a bit cloudy.

As the Magic 8 ball says, ask again later.

There was little enough activity at The Bucket Shop yesterday.  And a little bullion was shoved around the warehouses, mostly in silver.

I have mostly given up on a voluntary resolution to our economic and financial troubles.   Reform is not an attractive option when you are winning...

There was intraday commentary for both silver and gold on the 'potential claims per ounce' and 'inflows to Western precious metal publicly disclosed holdings.'

Have a pleasant evening.









SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Who'll Stop the Rain?


Stocks managed to hold near their recent levels, pulling back a bit from overhead resistance.

There was nothing of note in the US macroeconomic news this morning as you can see below.

The markets are waiting to see what the ECB might do for the stagnant EU Zone economy.

I see that Hillary's campaign is pivoting to appeal to 'moderate Republicans.'

That's a change?

Have a pleasant evening.







More About 'Potential Claims Per Ounce' Or 'Owners Per Ounce' Charts


Note: I have edited this exchange a bit and added much more detail to the answer for the sake of completeness and coherence.

I thought it might serve a more general interest.


From: xxxxxxxxxxx
To: "arthurcutten'at'yahoo.com"
Sent: Tuesday, March 8, 2016 11:05 AM
Subject: comex owners per oz.

"Number Of Owners Per Ounce Of Registered Gold Goes Exponential"

Hi, can u maybe comment on the latest ratio of owners per oz, my concern is in a controlled paper price PM market does it even matter? will it only matter when the chickens come home to roost on their golden eggs only to find out they arent there.....

thanks,
xxxxx

==========Reply to Mr. xxxxxx======


Dear xxxxxx,

I have spoken about this quite a bit, but I am afraid some do not quite get it even yet, on both sides of the issue. Critics often willfully so, and others I am afraid for the sake of headlines.

The 'owners per ounce' is an indicator of the price relative to the strength of hands holding supply at a given price.

I do not expect this 'exponential claims per ounce' to result in anything like a default since, as others have pointed out as well as myself, the ability to convert eligible gold to delivery is very quick.

So really it comes down to a matter of price. And this is in fact what the Comex told Kyle Bass about holding gold at an exchange licensed warehouse in something other than strictly allocated form.

Now if the price and supply continue to be in imbalance globally, which I think that they seem to be, then we might very well see a market dislocation, most likely coming out of one of the physical markets like London or Asia and spreading to other markets.

And that sort of thing can be resolved in a price jump, which may be substantial, but nevertheless is doable.  This is what I call a 'market dislocation.  It involves that hardly unlikely market phenomenon, at least these days, of a mispricing of risks.

And it would most likely work, unless the exchange does something silly to bail out some wrong-footed insiders. That would be more similar to a de facto default, ie a pre-ordained settlement to 'maintain order in the markets' because of some cited force majeure that really does little more than expose the reckless use of leverage and overly accommodative regulating of trading activity.

This is not likely but it is certainly a possibility, and more likely now that I might have otherwise thought.   I am afraid to say that my opinion on the likelihood of voluntary reform initiated by the actors and regulators is much more unlikely than one might have thought, given all that we have seen in the past fifteen years.   What else would one expects when disreputable behaviour pays so well with so few serious, personal consequences?
I hope this helps to at least clarify what I am saying.

Jesse