19 December 2012

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Jamie Galbraith: Global Economic Crisis


The sound and fury of the pigmen, signifying nothing.

Have a pleasant evening.

Here is an excerpt from a recent talk by Jamie Galbraith:
"Five years ago when the great financial crisis broke into public view, those who claimed falsely that no one could have predicted it also claimed that our economies would recover. Standard forecasts foretold rapid growth and high employment within five years. Banks in America would start lending again. Confidence would return in Europe.

Those of us who said no, that there would be no return to normal, were for the most part ignored. Yesterday we heard Professor Nouriel Roubini give a magisterial and very high speed tour of the world situation making it clear of course that the promised recovery has not occurred. But if Nouriel is Sir Isaiah Berlin’s fox, who knows many things, let me try this morning to be the hedgehog who knows one big thing, and that one big thing is that what we are experiencing is a single, unified, global crisis of the economy and of the financial system.

It is not a cluster of distinct and separated events; a subprime crisis in the United States; a public debt crisis in Greece; a bank crisis in Iceland; a real estate bust in Ireland and Spain; nor are there distinct U.S. and European crises, nor can the financial be separated from the real, nor is Germany a country to which crisis has not yet come with the suggestion that there might be some separate way out. There is one crisis, only one crisis, a deeply interconnected crisis of the world system. This crisis has, I think, three deep sources going back not twenty years but forty years to the early 1970s and the end of what we sometimes call the “golden age,” the “glorious thirty” years in the immediate aftermath of the second World War...

And the third great source of our problem is ideological. It is the neo-liberal idea that has given us deregulation and de-supervision; that has given us the notion that markets can function on their own without breaking down or blowing up. It is this notion as applied especially to finance.

This is the great illusion of the last generation, and it fostered a form of economic growth that was intrinsically unstable and unsustainable. Why? Because it was based on declining standards for loans and on lax accounting of the proceeds of those loans. Or to put it in simple terms, it was based upon financial fraud, on the most massive wave of financial fraud that the world has ever seen.

And the world has seen a lot of financial fraud. It was known to be such to the lenders at the time. This was true of housing loans in the United States made by the tens of millions that were known to the lenders as “liar’s loans,” as “ninja loans,” no income, no job, no assets; as “neutron loans” destined to explode leaving the building intact but destroying the people. This was known at the time. These were loans that had to be refinanced or they would default..."

Read the entire speech here.





Report that Russia Has Issued Gold and Silver Coins Which Can Be Used As Legal Tender


Unfortunately I do not read Russian so I have not yet completely verified this, but I thought it was interesting enough to pass along on the face of it, since it is 'making the rounds' of the internet, and some have asked me about it.

Here is the reported document in Russian.

As they are not coins for general circulation but rather coins to commemorate the Russian Olympics I do not see this as signficant perhaps as the blogger quoted below. Also it appears that they will be issued in rather limited numbers so will probably price as a collectible and not as currency. That is how it is with commemoratives in limited edition.

Here is the sentence from the document that provoked such a strong reaction in some circles.
"The coins are legal tender cash payment in the Russian Federation and must be accepted at face value in all kinds of payments without any restrictions."
I have not yet done all the math to determine the equivalent 'face value' of the coins in other currencies, but I have taken an initial swipe at it.

In the case of the 50 Rouble gold coin, it is 7.78 grams, or 0.25013 troy oz.

At $1700 per ounce, that would make the gold coin worth about .999 x .25013 = .25 ounce of gold, or roughly $425 for a face value coin of 50 roubles.

That is about 8.5 dollars to the rouble. And I don't think many would take that exchange, since the US dollar is now trading at about 30.77 roubles.

Much ado about not too much I am afraid. This strikes me as the $50 face value on the gold American Eagle. I don't even need the legal tender guarantee to make me want to honor that exchange.

Note: A Russian reader informs me that ALL such coins have always been considered legal tender there, as if it matters, given their largely symbolic face value.

Well Aren't These Fine
By Demetrius Tucker
19 December 2012
Tallinn, Estonia

It seems 2012 is not yet done with its surprises. The Central Bank of Russia has issued three values of bullion (300,000 31.1g silver pieces with a 3RUB face value, 300,000 7.78g gold pieces with 50RUB face, & 100,000 15.55g gold pieces with a 100RUB face value) that can be used as legal tender beginning, well, TWO DAYS AGO!

If you don’t yet understand the ramifications of such a move, don’t worry, it’s not too late. But you want to begin reading now – starting with the history of metals as money...

Read the entire report here.


Here is a Google translation of the Russian document.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)

Department of External and Public Relations

107016, Moscow, ul. Neglinnaya, 12, tel.: (495) 771-4417, 771-4669, fax: (495) 771-4932; http://www.cbr.ru

INFORMATION

On the issue of investment appeal of precious metal coins

Department of External and Public Relations of the Bank of Russia informs that on 17 December 2012 in the framework of the monetary program "Sochi 2014" Bank of Russia issues a bullion coins dedicated to the XXII Olympic Winter Games 2014 in Sochi: 3 Rubles silver, gold nominal 50 and $ 100, with the year of issue "2012".

Investment silver coin of 3 Rubles (fine metal content 31.1 g, fineness 999, catalog № 5111-0247) has a rectangular shape with rounded corners, length 35.0 mm and a width of 23.0 mm.

On the front and back of the coin is raised.

The obverse of the coin features the relief of the State Emblem of the Russian Federation, there are inscriptions in two lines at the top of "the Russian Federation", below face value coins - "RR 3" and the year of issue - "2012", indicate the metal in the periodic table of elements D. I. Mendeleev, fineness, the mint trademark and the fine metal content...

The coins are legal tender cash payment in the Russian Federation and must be accepted at face value in all kinds of payments without any restrictions.

December 17, 2012

Using materials reference to the Department of External and Public Relations of the Bank of Russia is required.

Audacious Oligarchy Reprise - A Question of Balance


Once again, that great summation of the Anglo-American experiment in crony capitalism by Robert Johnson.

If you can do nothing else, stop making excuses for those who promote the oppression of the financial interests, and stop listening to those who do.

Law is how the just associate to protect themselves against injustice and the wickedness of the world.

And if you charge forward, as happens from time to time, to willfully and recklessly tear down the laws in the name of some misbegotten ideology, and you stop and turn round, the winds of oppression that blow across the land will knock you down, no matter who you are, or how self-sufficient and powerful you may imagine yourself to be.

When you take an admirable concept and blind it, taking it to some imbalanced extreme by sticking an 'ism' on the end of it, you all too often unleash the madness, and the whirlwind.

If government has stopped working for the public interest of justice for all you reform it, you do not further weaken and burn it to the ground and destroy it in the vain hope that something better will accidentally come forward from some well-spring of natural goodness in the worst of us who serve only themselves, and the will to power.

You can believe what you will, but you will be accountable for what you believe.

"When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle."

Edmund Burke



If there is any significant weakness in this model I have constructed it is that it does not easily represent the extreme position of anarchism, or its little brother, libertarianism. I think that it is because they are 'no model' or rather a model of social disorganization. But I am giving it some thought.

But they stand in no middle ground, but an extreme on another scale. And I say they care naught for individual rights, because they adopts the law of the jungle, that might makes right and that each person stands alone. It is a romantic, almost utopian, view of the world that sounds good to an adolescent, but which one might quickly outgrow as they reach adulthood and start a family.

On the other end of that scale would be total government, or statism, which is part of the basis of the model below. As most extremes, the statists and the anarchists are so off center that they see only one another, and anyone who is not them appears the other. This is how most ideological groups tend to coalesce as they become something self-observing and self-perpetuating.



Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - End of Year Train Wreck Underway



This is part of the end of the year book making. The stock market gaming is equally blatant. Short term these jokers can keep rolling, but longer term they will crash, and then attempt to make someone else pick up their tab.

Making the Innocent Pay for the Crimes of the Elite

Why do they do it? Because in this case, crime pays. And that is crony capitalism.

Geithner Told of LIBOR Manipulation in May, 2008

Below is a video of a train wreck caused by a mudslide in Washington, USA. Do you think they might have had a little more care for the composition of that hillside before it came down on a moving train filled with chemicals?

A mudslide from a hill of overhanging loose earth in a state noted for its precipitation. Who could have foreseen this?

Infrastructure. You don't need it while the profits are rolling in. And when it collapses, declare an emergency and stick the public with bill.

A similar situation is currently underway in the monetary composition of the US dollar. Gold is the video camera.

One major difference is that the jokers who are making the profits from the rail line of fraudulent financial instruments are also placing bets that the mudslide of fraudulent mispricing of risk will derail the train and cause a tragedy in the real economy.

Its a win-win, for them. And a serious loss for many.

How could anyone imagine that powerful, well educated and highly connected people could do such a thing? Have you been sleepwalking for the last ten years?







SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts


This is the update from last night.

Posting may be a bit irregular this week because of the holidays.

The end of year tape painting is hot and heavy.







18 December 2012

Net Asset Value Premiums Of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds


Bear raid on the metals this afternoon was hard to miss.

Here is the Comex Metals Calendar for the rest of the year.
Dec. 21 Nymex January 2013 platinum options expiry
Dec. 26 Comex January 2013 copper options expiry
Dec. 27 Comex December gold futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December silver futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December copper futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex December E-micro gold futures last trading day
Dec. 27 Comex January 2013 E-mini copper futures last trading day
Dec. 28 Nymex December palladium futures last trading day
Dec. 30 Nymex January 2013 platinum futures first notice day
Dec. 31 Comex January 2013 silver futures first notice day
Dec. 31 Comex January 2013 copper futures first notice day



SP 500 Futures Daily Chart at Year End - Pigmen Rampant on a Field of Monetary Inflation


There is a an obvious ramping in the US equity markets into the year end that is running into fairly long term resistance.

I think 1455 is the highest this market will go without a deal on the fiscal cliff. Perhaps not even that high without an extraordinary effort.

If needed, Wall Street stands ready to pressure the Congress and the Administration in January by dumping the financial asset markets, hard, in the manner of the TARP negotiations.  We'll make them an offer they can't refuse.

Conversely, the SP 500 is in a fairly obvious inverse head and shoulders formation that has not yet activated by breaking out from its neckline, which is around 1455. If something does happen that permits such a breakout, it can run quite a bit.

There is a similar potential Inverse H&S on the NDX 100 big cap tech chart.

I suggest as always you ask the question cui bono, 'who benefits?'   Although they do happen, there are few accidents these days.

From a certain perspective the US and UK financial systems are being dominated by a set of loosely organized criminal enterprises that have captured, or at the least nullified, the regulatory functions of the markets.  This adds a significant element of uncertainty to what in theory is a discounting and price discovery mechanism.

There are rumours of a 'deal' on the fiscal cliff, in which the Republicans accept tax increases of a sort on those with incomes over $400,000 per year, and Democrats accept cuts on pensions of the elderly and veterans by using 'chained CPI' to calculate inflation rather than the current, significantly weakened, version of CPI-W.  The major feature of chained CPI is to make substitutions to cheaper products as prices increase.  As meat prices increase, for example, one can switch from beef to pork, pork to chicken, and chicken to dry cat food.

This change does so little to really 'fix' the budget problems of the next ten years, but visits such pain on the weak, that one has to wonder if there is a streak of sadism in the monied interests controlling the Beltway.   Although they will deny it, I think there is.

The plutocrats intend to resolve their debt problems generated by a corrupt financial system by inflating the currency. The benefit is that a switch to an even more distorting method of calculating price inflation will provide additional cover to their debasement of the currency.  I am not ruling out another asset bubble, this time probably in the financial asset markets.

The story for the year end seems to be inflating financial risk assets like stocks while capping precious metals and other key commodities.

As for the promised raising of taxes on the uber-wealthy, don't you believe it.  Their tax avoidance schemes are well-researched, well-funded, and intricate in ways that the average person can hardly understand.   And those educated enough to understand it won't say a word, through a mixed bag of careerism, self-interest, willful ideological blindness, and personal greed.   Its a feast of fools.

Why admit complicity in a fraud and accept the consequences when you  can double down and attempt to take it all, and write the history afterwards.

Its a win-win for the pigmen, shifting the pain to the elderly and veterans, and achieving even greater opacity to their wealth transfer schemes through monetary inflation.  If you know how to play it, asset inflation through official monetary magic, which is just another facet of that age old fraud of seigniorage,  is a wonderful way to steal from the hoi polloi without them feeling it until collapse comes, in the manner of a Ponzi scheme.

Let's see what happens.





17 December 2012

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts


The deal makers in Washington have until roughly the end of this week to tip their hands on the short term resolution of the 'fiscal cliff.'

These markets are a bit silly, matching some of the commentary I am seeing at various places around the web and in the media. 

Speaking of mysteries, the NY Times asks, Why Are Large Gold Shipments Leaving Afghanistan?

This is a good time of year to remind ourselves of our mutual dependencies, and our own weaknesses which are so easily overlooked, especially in a culture that favors swagger and arrogance.   Empires seem to thrive on the will to power.
"Christianity is called the religion of pity. Pity stands opposed to the powerful emotions which heighten our vitality; it has a depressing effect. We are deprived of strength when we feel pity...

What is good? All that heightens the feeling of power in a man, the will to power, power itself. What is bad? All that is born of weakness. What is happiness? The feeling that power is growing, that resistance is overcome."

Friedrich Nietzsche, The Antichrist
As you may recall, Nietzsche ended up in an insane asylum, and his philosophy of the blood, of the Übermenschen, and of the triumph of the will, turned Europe into an asylum of madness as well, for a time.