27 May 2014

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Record High On the SP 500


Stocks were in rally mode today. purportedly off 'better than expected' economic news this morning.

This looks a lot like an end of month rally and a short squeeze. Let it run for now, but it does not seem to be sustainable by the economic news, but rather a child of the Fed and dodgy accounting. 

Revised GDP out later this week.

Have a pleasant evening.




23 May 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Option Expiration and An Active Contract Month


There will be an option expiration for the June contract on next Tuesday, and the active June contract will take center stage from the relatively quiet month of May.

Speaking of options expirations, a small fry at Barclays was tossed over to the FSA when he went out of his way to cheat a large and presumably important customer on an options position. You may read about it here.

Manipulation of the precious metals markets is often as blatant and obvious as what this junior joker from Barclays did.  One can see it on the tape, but the omerta that surrounds the scams in the world of crony capitalism generally prevails, and nothing comes of it unless a 'very serious player' is harmed. 

There are laws, and then there are the real, unwritten rules, and it is getting more blatant as nothing is done about it. It stops being an outlier and becomes 'accepted.'  That is what is called moral hazard. And it is corrosive to markets and to government.   

Nothing important happened yesterday in the Comex gold warehouses.

June may be an interesting month for the metals, and more likely more interesting than May.

As a reminder, the business and government of the United States will be closed for business on Monday, for Memorial Day.  Try to carry on without their guidance.

Have a pleasant weekend.






SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Where Are the Customers' Yachts?


"Where the Lottery was concerned, even people who could barely read and write seemed capable of intricate calculations and staggering feats of memory. There was a whole tribe of men who made their living simply by selling systems, forecasts, and lucky amulets. Winston...was aware (indeed everyone in the party was aware) that the prizes were largely imaginary.

Only small sums were actually paid out, the winners of the big prizes being nonexistent persons.”

George Orwell, 1984

The SP 500 set shivers of 'whoop whoop' through the hollowed hall of the NYSE today, as the morlocks celebrated a new closing high.

This will be a three day holiday weekend in the States.

We will get a bit more on the economic news front next week, including the second rewrite of the first quarter GDP.

There is no recovery.  

Have a pleasant weekend.






Barclays Fined For Brazenly Manipulating the Price of Gold With the 'Dr. Evil Strategy'


“The whole purpose of propaganda is to make the obvious seem obscure, or offensive.”

Stefan Molyneux

In this case action was taken because a large option customer complained to Barclays, which in turn gave the trader up to the FSA. And so Barclays threw one of their traders to the regulators.

Reform will come when the regulators proactively take action on such obvious market rigging maneuvers and establish sound price discovery and fair markets as they are charged to do by law.

These types of trading gambits are relatively easy to spot on the tape, and have been happening with some regularity on the Comex, in addition to the London markets. As in the case of Barclays, these short term manipulations are done to game the markets and cheat customers, who may have options positions and stop loss orders. They are theft, pure and simple, and it is being done in clear sight.

When some analysts and commenters say that they have never seen any evidence of price manipulation like this, both up and down, as large amounts of contracts are wantonly dumped or bought in quiet markets, they say more about themselves, with regard to either their expertise or integrity, than about the markets.  

Financial Times
Barclays hit with £26m fine over gold fix
By Andy Sharman
May 23, 2014

Barclays has been hit with a £26m fine after one of its traders manipulated the setting of the price of gold in order to avoid paying out on a client order.

The UK Financial Conduct Authority on Friday said it was imposing the penalty on the British lender after the trader, Daniel James Plunkett, sent out a burst of orders aimed at moving the price of the yellow metal. The behaviour occurred just a day after the bank paid £290m in penalties and became the first institution to be fined in the sweeping Libor and Euribor rate-rigging probes...

The FCA said Mr Plunkett had manipulated the market by placing, withdrawing and re-placing a large sell order for between 40,000 oz and 60,000 oz of gold bars.

He did this in an attempt to pull off a “mini puke”, which the FCA took to mean a sharp fall in the price of gold. As a result, the bank was not obliged to make a $3.9m payment to the customer under an option contract...

Read the entire article here.

Related: Barclays Fined For Manipulating Price of Gold For a Decade


22 May 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Management of Perception


"The contempt for the lives of the soldiers and for France herself has come to the point of calling people raw material and cannon fodder."

François-René de Chateaubriand, De Bonaparte et des Bourbons


“The whole purpose of propaganda is to make the obvious seem obscure, or offensive.”

Stefan Molyneux

There was little of interest that happened yesterday on the Comex for the inactive May gold contract.

Next Tuesday the 27th is an option expiration for the June gold and silver contracts. June is an active month.

Have a pleasant evening.




SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Gross Complacency and Artful Delusions


There is no recovery.  There has been no genuine reform.

The betrayal of trust is comprehensive.

Have a pleasant evening.





Financial Crisis in America: If Only the King Knew!


Signs of Decay
  1. Internal corruption
  2. Imperial overreach
  3. Inability to reform.

Harvard Law Review
Incentives and Ideology
By James Kwak
May 20, 2014

“'If only the King knew!', we cried a thousand times from the depths of our abyss.” Cahiers de doléances de Cahors, 1789

In pre-Revolutionary France, common people would often say of their problems, “If only the King knew . . . .” Whatever evils they suffered at the hand of their government must be due to the king’s ministers and officials, for the king himself could not be at fault.

But the king knew exactly what was going on. As Levitin shows, our financial regulators were and remain deeply enmeshed in a complex political environment. At the margin, they have the discretion to do favors for the industry or for specific institutions (such as the OTS backdating a capital infusion by IndyMac to make it seem well capitalized when it actually wasn’t). But major regulatory decisions, such as turning a blind eye to derivatives or bailing out banks, are made by the political system as a whole...

More generally, we can’t blame everything on the bureaucrats. The financial non-regulation that made the 2008 crash possible was the explicit policy of multiple presidential administrations, and some of its most important elements sailed through Congress with bipartisan support. The choice to bail out large banks rather than homeowners was made by the Bush and Obama Administrations.

And Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Act, which largely left in place the regulatory system that had failed so spectacularly, with the Administration lobbying heavily to weaken the most far-reaching reforms. In other words, President Obama knew exactly what was going on — just as President Clinton knew what was going on when he signed the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, allowing the consolidation of commercial and investment banking."

Read the entire article in the Harvard Law Review here.

Related:
Credibility Trap: Moyers and Barofsky on Failed Reform and Another Financial Crisis


21 May 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Lions and Tigers and Pigs, Oh My


Intraday there was a move to push gold lower, but it really could not stick.

The capping continues.

Have a pleasant evening.