03 May 2010

A Summary of the Goldman Sachs Fraud Case, and the Downfall of Icons


"Le secret des grandes fortunes sans cause apparente est un crime oublié, parce qu' il a été proprement fait."

(The secret of great returns which are difficult to explain is a crime that has not yet been discovered because it has been carefully executed."

Honoré de Balzac, Pere Goriot

There is quite a bit of spin surrounding the Goldman Sachs deal. The best debunking of the spin around the nature and quality of the SEC's case was written by Barry Ritholz.

One of the best summaries of what the deal actually encompassed is excerpted below by Rolling Stone journalist Matt Taibbi.
"Here's the Cliffs Notes version of the scandal: Back in 2007, Harvard-educated hedge-fund whiz John Paulson (no relation to then-Treasury secretary and former Goldman chief Hank Paulson) smartly decided the housing boom was a mirage. So he asked Goldman to put together a multibillion-dollar basket of crappy subprime investments that he could bet against. The bank gladly complied, taking a $15 million fee to do the deal and letting Paulson choose some of the toxic mortgages in the portfolio, which would come to be called Abacus.

What Paulson jammed into Abacus was mortgages lent to borrowers with low credit ratings, and mortgages from states like Florida, Arizona, Nevada and California that had recently seen wild home-price spikes. In metaphorical terms, Paulson was choosing, as sexual partners for future visitors to the Goldman bordello, a gang of IV drug users, Haitians and hemophiliacs, then buying life-insurance policies on the whole orgy. Goldman then turned around and sold this poisonous stuff to its customers as good, healthy investments.

Where Goldman broke the rules, according to the SEC, was in failing to disclose to its customers – in particular a German bank called IKB and a Dutch bank called ABN-AMRO – the full nature of Paulson's involvement with the deal. Neither investor knew that the portfolio they were buying into had essentially been put together by a financial arsonist who was rooting for it all to blow up.

Goldman even kept its own collateral manager – a well-known and respectable company called ACA – in the dark. The bank hired the firm to approve the bad mortgages being selected by Paulson, but never bothered to tell ACA that Paulson was actually betting against the deal. ACA thought Paulson was long, when actually he was short. That led to the awful comedy of ACA staffers holding meeting after meeting with Goldman and Paulson, and continually coming away confused as to why their supposedly canny financial partners kept kicking any decent mortgage out of the deal. In one ACA internal e-mail, the company wonders aloud why Paulson excluded mortgages issued by Wells Fargo – a bank that traditionally created high-quality mortgages. "Did [they] give a reason why they kicked out all the Wells deals?" the quizzical e-mail reads."

Matt Taibbi, The Feds Vs. Goldman

This is fraud, pure and simple. Goldman did not stand by and allow ACA to make its picks. Goldman and Paulson aggressively influenced the selection process, vetoing the good mortgages, and manipulating ACA, setting them up to be the fall guy in what is clearly a premeditated fraud.

The final defense being offered, after the smokescreens and misstatements of what happened have been pulled away, is that there can be no fraud when you are selling to a 'qualified investor' and making a market.

Goldman was not making a market. They were actively creating inherently dangerous products, and then recommending and selling them to their customers, qualified investors or not. It was fraud, and Goldman is a disreputable firm, that has been shown to engage in fraud across many markets and countries and venues. This particular scam with ACA is small change compared to the setting up of AIG, and the foul bailout ripped from the public with the collusion of the NY Fed.

Anyone who looked at their trading results, many standard deviations out of the norm, would have to know that there was some sort of fraud and market manipulation involved. It is the Bernie Madoff syndrome; the professionals all knew he was cheating somehow, but were more than willing to go along with it and turn a blind eye while it was to their advantage. And Goldman had the politicians in their pocket, and so they were powerful, not to be crossed. Almost as powerfully connected as the Fed's house bank, J. P. Morgan.

Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger have come out recently in defense of Goldman, attempting to paint this fraud as the work of a single rogue trader. That of course is a part of the spin, the carefully thought out and premeditated fraud which had ACA and then Fabrice Tourree as the designated scapegoats.

Warren holds quite a bit of Goldman Sachs stock. And all he and Charlie have shown is that once you strip away the trappings and the masks, the ornamentation and the legend, what you are left with is someone who is willing to lie down with pigs when the money is right. So the question is not what kind of man Warren Buffet is, but rather, what is his price.

When the tide goes out, we indeed see who is naked, and who is not. And it is not a pretty picture.

01 May 2010

Times Square NYC Evacuated as Failed Car Bomb Discovered


American News sources are reporting that an abandoned automobile left in Times Square at 7th Ave. and West 44th St. has been discovered to have false license plates, and to contain propane tanks, gasoline, burned wiring, and black powder.

Witnesses report a flash from the back of a Nissan SUV, and smoke coming from the back of the vehicle. Police originally responded to reports of a car fire.

Car Bomb Scares Times Square - Washington Post

Breaking News - Times Square Evacuated- NY Times Online....

Retraining and Rehabilitation of Financial Sector Employees May Be a Daunting Task


Prospero: Mark but the badges of these men, my lords,
Then say if they be true...
These three have robb'd me, and this demi-devil—
For he's a bastard one, had plotted with them
To take my life. Two of these fellows you
Must know and own; this thing of darkness I
Acknowledge mine.

Caliban: I shall be pinch'd to death.

The Tempest Act 5, scene 1

"Even knaves may be made good for something."

Jean-Jacques Rousseau

According to the email below there is some concern among employees in the financial services sector about their future employment prospects if reform legislation should be enacted, and some tentative, but perhaps unrealistic plans, of coping with it if it happens are expressed.

I can always use a little help around the kitchen and the yard, cleaning up and minor repairs, and I would gladly pay a fair wage based on effort, moderated by experience and capability. My son and helper is leaving for university soon to begin his studies in engineering, which is the manipulation of real things for practical purposes with benefit to the customer. So it might be unfamiliar to you. And I am not getting any younger.

By the way, since most of the suburban teaching jobs are filled, have you considered going back to school to learn to be a Registered Nurse? There will be plenty of openings in nursing homes and hospices, and your selfless dedication to hard and sometimes distasteful work will be most useful and appreciated.

I suspect there will be a lot of cheap labor available from dislocated FIRE sector workers in the years to come, as well as from those serving out community service judgements. At least the highways will be cleaned of litter. Perhaps exposure to the common people and honest labor will do them some good.

I am a little concerned that this type of person probably has little or no practical skills, but they do claim to bring high energy and a willing spirit, so it could be put to work on the cleaning up of America and Europe, and the rebuilding of their infrastructure. They make themselves sound like teachers, firefighters, policemen, or even soldiers, but there are dimensions of duty and honor and self-sacrifice and service to others in those callings far beyond any monetary recompense of which they probably have little experience or even a vaguely realistic expectation.

His or her description of what it is like to teach elementary school is good for a laugh. Someone is in for a rude awakening.

All things considered, we can surmise that there is no excess of common sense in their portfolio, or an ability to listen well and learn about things which they think they know, but really do not understand at all. That speaks to the main question which is, 'are they educable' or will they be prone to recidivism?

I find it hard to believe, however, that this letter is anything but a hoax. But considering the imputed source of these sentiments is the "derivative of a human being," it could be genuine. I am a bit undecided, but will allow for it.

So grab a pair of gloves, my boy, and I will be glad to teach you how to prune a tree and clear some brush. But although you might be willing to do it more cheaply, don't expect to displace the little girls of their job of walking the dog to earn money to purchase new dollies. They can be more ruthless and determined than the most hardened union boss. And the nine year old tells me she is still the strongest person in her class, but boasts of it less of late, owing to a nascent attraction to a classmate known only as 'Will.' But you might be able to help them with the clean up.

And if you should happen to play any card or board games with them, I warn you beforehand, they cheat, obviously, clumsily and shamelessly, to win, with a somewhat cavalier regard for the written rules. Ah, but I forget, that has long been your raison d'etre, your hallmark, and a particular area of specialization and expertise.

Time, life and a benevolent and orderly society tend to teach children to be better, to be human, essere umano. But apparently it does not always at first succeed, and must try, try again.

The Reformed Broker
An Email Purported to be Making the Rounds of Wall Street

"We are Wall Street. It's our job to make money. Whether it's a commodity, stock, bond, or some hypothetical piece of fake paper, it doesn't matter. We would trade baseball cards if it were profitable. I didn't hear America complaining when the market was roaring to 14,000 and everyone's 401k doubled every 3 years. Just like gambling, its not a problem until you lose. I've never heard of anyone going to Gamblers Anonymous because they won too much in Vegas.

Well now the market crapped out, & even though it has come back somewhat, the government and the average Joes are still looking for a scapegoat. God knows there has to be one for everything. Well, here we are.

Go ahead and continue to take us down, but you're only going to hurt yourselves. What's going to happen when we can't find jobs on the Street anymore? Guess what: We're going to take yours. We get up at 5am & work till 10pm or later. We're used to not getting up to pee when we have a position. We don't take an hour or more for a lunch break. We don't demand a union. We don't retire at 50 with a pension. We eat what we kill, and when the only thing left to eat is on your dinner plates, we'll eat that.

For years teachers and other unionized labor have had us fooled. We were too busy working to notice. Do you really think that we are incapable of teaching 3rd graders and doing landscaping? We're going to take your cushy jobs with tenure and 4 months off a year and whine just like you that we are so-o-o-o underpaid for building the youth of America. Say goodbye to your overtime and double time and a half. I'll be hitting grounders to the high school baseball team for $5k extra a summer, thank you very much. (Note: How many moons are there on this guy's planet?)

So now that we're going to be making $85k a year without upside, Joe Mainstreet is going to have his revenge, right? Wrong! Guess what: we're going to stop buying the new 80k car, we aren't going to leave the 35 percent tip at our business dinners anymore. No more free rides on our backs. We're going to landscape our own back yards, wash our cars with a garden hose in our driveways. Our money was your money. You spent it. When our money dries up, so does yours.

The difference is, you lived off of it, we rejoiced in it. The Obama administration and the Democratic National Committee might get their way and knock us off the top of the pyramid, but it's really going to hurt like hell for them when our fat a**es land directly on the middle class of America and knock them to the bottom. (I would pay to watch that. There are a lot of former customers named 'Bubba' who would like to make your acquaintance.)

We aren't dinosaurs. We are smarter and more vicious than that, and we are going to survive. The question is, now that Obama & his administration are making Joe Mainstreet our food supply…will he? and will they?"

30 April 2010

Muni Bonds: Time to Head for Higher Ground?


J. P. Morgan and Charles Schwab have just announced a program to make municipal bonds more available to small investors.




Let's see, record low interest rates and looming risk of default from undisclosed obligations, or perhaps a brisk uptake in inflation. Sounds like a plan (for the big dogs to unload).

Yikes!

Culture of Deceit: Why Dick Fuld So Needlessly and Recklessly Perjured Himself Before Congress

"Truth is not only violated by falsehood; it may be equally outraged by silence."

Henri-Frederic Amiel

Yet another whistle blower who has been completely ignored by the SEC just stepped forward to finally be acknowledged by the media.

A Bloomberg analyst reported around noon NY time that they had verified Mr. Budde's story, and that indeed Dick Fuld easily had received cash in excess of $500 million in compensation for the period in question, higher than even Henry Waxman had asserted in his charts during Dick Fuld's testimony.

Mr. Budde, a former counsel who was frustrated and plain fed up with the culture of personal greed and deceit among the Lehman executives stepped forward again to tell his story after being completely ignored by the SEC and the Lehman Board of Directors.

Now, I have some sympathy for Dick Fuld. I mean, when you are making the big bucks owed to a master of the universe, and you eat widows and orphans for breakfast, what does it really matter if it is $300 million, or $550 million, or even the one billion that some estimate was the true total compensation? What is a few hundred millions when you can afford to wipe your derrière with Cohiba cigars, and gargle with Cristal Brut 1990? (Oh yeah, that's class, real class. I must finally be somebody, and not just some schmuck from the Bronx. I'll show them, show them all.)

I know I have trouble keeping track of what I have exactly in my own wallet at times, especially after paying the kids a couple of quid to walk the dog. And $200 million is hardly a significant sum anymore in the rapidly expanding compensation universe change on Wall Street. There is the locus of Bernanke's inflation, the FIRE sector, where the liquidity has been channeled, for years.

But what interests me most is why did Dick Fuld perjure himself over something to obviously verifiable, and largely irrelevant? Doesn't he file tax returns? Did he mess up using Turbo Tax like other board members of the NY Fed are said to have done? Or was he just a little bit ashamed of taking huge sums from a company that he ran into the ground in a Ponzi scheme? On the other hand Goldman execs celebrate their bonuses and just love to roll in their own irrational greed. Perhaps it was just a slip, a bad habit, a automatic reflex.

Fuld was widely disliked on the Street, and when those sharks and sociopaths, who would sell their own mothers for an eighth, don't like you there just have to be some serious personality issues involved.

But Dick is likely to be just another scapegoat, like Martha Stewart, in an escalating program to feed at first the small fry and now bigger 'outsiders' to the mob and the show trials, while the great bulk of the crime continues to be concealed.

And just so you don't feel too sorry for the Dickster, on November 10, 2008 Fuld sold his Florida mansion to his wife Kathleen for $100; this may protect the house from potential legal actions and judgements against him. They had bought it only 4 years earlier for $13.56 million.

Still, one can only ask the question, and wonder, what a brave new world, that has such people in it, virtually running the regulators, the Congress, and the government for their own irrational benefit and obsessive greed.




Bloomberg
Fuld Understated Pay More Than $200 Million, Lehman’s Budde Says

By James Sterngold
April 30, 2010, 12:02 AM EDT

April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Before Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. took his place, Richard S. Fuld Jr.’s angry face was the universal symbol of Wall Street greed.

On Oct. 6, 2008, three weeks after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history, Lehman’s former chief executive officer found himself before Representative Henry A. Waxman, the California Democrat who chaired the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. Waxman has stared down plenty of CEOs over the years, yet this had to be one of the most intense confrontations of his career.

“Mr. Fuld will do fine,” Waxman said. “He can walk away from Lehman a wealthy man who earned over $500 million. But taxpayers are left with a $700 billion bill to rescue Wall Street and an economy in crisis.”

Fuld said he was a victim, not an architect, of the collapse, blaming a “crisis of confidence” in the markets for dooming his firm. Reckless management had nothing to do with it. “Lehman Brothers,” he said, “was a casualty.”

Fuld and Waxman went on to disagree about just how much money Fuld had taken out of Lehman before it went under, Bloomberg Businessweek reported in its May 3 edition. Fuld, now 64, said his total compensation from 2000 through 2007 was less than $310 million, not the $485 million that appeared on Waxman’s chart. He said 85 percent of his pay was in Lehman stock that had become worthless. “I never sold my shares,” Fuld said at one point. At another, he said he had not sold the “vast majority” of them.

“That just seems to me an incredible amount of money,” Waxman responded.

Under Oath

Among those closely observing Fuld was a 49-year-old former Lehman lawyer named Oliver Budde who was watching the hearing at home on C-Span. Budde (pronounced Boo-da) was certain Waxman’s figures weren’t too high. They were too low, and he could prove it. Fuld, he believed, had understated the amount he was paid during those years by more than $200 million, and now he had done it under oath, for the entire world to see.

For nine years, Budde had served as an associate general counsel at Lehman. Preparing the public filings on executive compensation had been one of his major responsibilities, and he had been infuriated by what he saw as the firm’s intentional under-representation of how much top executives like Fuld were paid. Budde says he argued with his bosses for years over the matter, so much so that he eventually quit the firm. After he left, he couldn’t let the matter rest.

Contacting Regulators

He contacted the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Lehman board of directors and says neither showed interest in meeting him. He was so shocked by Fuld’s testimony in front of Congress that he started thinking about writing a book going public with his story, which is told here for the first time.

“I wasn’t surprised, because these guys don’t surprise me anymore,” Budde says. “But it just struck me -- they’re doing it again. I wasn’t going to sit back and watch...”

Reykjavík on the Thames: Hard Times Ahead for Britain


"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity."

W. B. Yeats, The Second Coming

The UK had another debate last night, and the polls shows the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats in a surprisingly close race, with Labour under Gordon Brown continuing to slip. We will be looking for more polls (not connected in any way to Mr. Rupert Murdoch thank you) over the weekend after yesterday's televised debates.

The election seems likely to result in a 'hung Parliament' with no clear majority for any party, suggesting the possibility of a coalition government.

As a reminder to American readers, most of whom do not even know that the Brits are holding an election or how their governments are formed, the Liberal Democrats would be considered the 'reform party' in this election, what the Yanks would call a 'third party.'

And to put an edge on it, the New Stateman reports that Mervyn King suggests that the coming austerity to be imposed on UK citizens to support the City Banks will ensure that the next party in power will not be elected again for many many years.

Of course that is what the US newspapers said about the Republicans ahead of their last election, but in a short period of time Mr. Obama has managed to alienate a large share of his election base by acting more like a moderate corporate crony than a reform Democrat.

This election is important in any number of ways, but for the US it is a peek into what the future may bring in their own midterm elections in November. It is unusual for a people to go all out for a third party when they are frightened. There has not been a viable third party in the states for almost a century. But the manner in which the elections are settled in the UK brings forward some interesting possibilities.

New Statesman
Mervyn King: next government will be voted out for a generation

30 April 2010

Governor of the Bank of England warns that austerity measures will be so unpopular that the next party in power will not be voted back in.

Mervyn King's comments were revealed just hours before the final leaders' debate.

The American economist David Hale, who has known King for many years, said in an Australian television interview: "I saw the governor of the Bank of England last week when I was in London, and he told me whoever wins this election will be out of power for a whole generation because of how tough the fiscal austerity will have to be."

The Bank of England declined to comment, but confirmed that King and Hale had had a private meeting in early March.

His comments come amid growing concern that none of the three main parties has been open about the scale of spending cuts and tax rises that will be necessary.


SP Futures Daily Chart: End of Month and the Bulls Need a New High, Badly


Its the end of April, and the bull run on Wall Street needs a new high to break the head and shoulders broadening top that is forming. They seem to have all they can handle to deliver another up month.



They might manage it into the close, but traders are edgy about going long into the weekend with the Greece situation still unsettled. Its probably once again up to the Banks to take it higher, using the government's money.

Just the other week I cautioned a friend on a chatboard I occasionally frequent to watch out for a divergence between gold and equities, with stocks going down while gold holds its ground or rises higher. This is a possible trend change, with the significance that could be quite dramatic in the coming months. At some point there is likely to be a revulsion against fraud, and the paper that supports it. It is unlikely to happen all at once, but in steps, or stages. There are powerful monied interests behind the status quo.

And so here we are, for now.

Guess Who Is Taking Delivery of 1.7 Tonnes of Gold from the Comex


"Never be surprised at the crumbling of an idol or the disclosure of a skeleton.”

John Emerich Lord Acton

Its delivery time for the May Gold contract on the Comex, and the statistics yesterday showed some interesting buying.

Bank of Nova Scotia 'stopped' 699 big contracts, and issued 100 contracts, for a net takedown of roughly 1.7 tons of gold, the bulk of which was supplied by J.P. Morgan.

As you may recall, the Canadian bullion bank Scotia Mocatta is a subsidiary of Bank of Nova Scotia. Socita Mocatta was recently involved in a bit of a scandal when some investors went to visit 'the vault where their gold was stored' and found it to be surprisingly, perhaps shockingly, undersupplied.

Is BNS acting to back up their paper, or are large investors asking for their bullion in advance? Either way, its an act of good faith on the part of BNS to take the delivery, and probably very smart to do it now.

While cash settlement may be an option, it is not ethical, and BNS is known for its high ethical standards towards its customers, unlike some of its more famous American cousins in the gangs of New York.

Nothing to see here, move along. Its all perfectly normal. No one really has to have what they sell and store for you anymore. Unless they are honest.

h/t Denver Dave

29 April 2010

When You Lie Down With Them Dept: Morgan Stanley Has 69% Tier 1 Capital Exposure to the PIIGS


That statistic about Morgan Stanley was an eye opener in terms of percent of capital exposure. No wonder Angie Merkel is playing hard to get, holding out for more than another back rub. Morgan Stanley looks like it done slipped in the pig wallow, don'cha know.

Gentlemen, start your presses.

Bloomberg
JPMorgan Has Biggest Exposure to Debt Risks in Europe

By Gavin Finch

April 29 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second- biggest U.S. bank by assets, has a larger exposure than any of its peers to Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain, according to Wells Fargo & Co.

JPMorgan’s exposure to the five so-called PIIGS countries is $36.3 billion, equating to 28 percent of the firm’s Tier-1 capital, a measure of financial strength, Wells Fargo analysts including Matthew Burnell wrote today. Morgan Stanley holds $32.4 billion of debt in the region, which equates to 69 percent of its Tier 1 capital, Burnell wrote.

“Regulatory data suggests JPMorgan’s exposure is largest in aggregate, but Morgan Stanley held the largest aggregate exposure to the PIIGS relative to Tier 1 capital,” the analysts wrote. Overall U.S. bank “exposure to Greece is lower than exposure to
Ireland, Italy and Spain.”

Bonds and stocks plunged across Europe in the past week on concern the Greek debt crisis is spreading across the euro area. Standard & Poor’s this week cut Greece, Portugal and Spain’s credit ratings as concern the nations may fail to meet their debt commitments increased.

U.S. banks held a total of $236.8 billion of exposure to the five nations, including $18.1 billion to Greece, Wells Fargo said. European banks have claims totaling $193.1 billion on Greece, according to the Bank for International Settlements, with another $832.2 billion of claims on Spain.