Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - What Time's the Next Black Swan? - Down to Key Support

 

"The period of financial distress is a gradual decline after the peak of a speculative bubble that precedes the final and massive panic and crash, driven by the insiders having exited but the sucker outsiders hanging on hoping for a revival, but finally giving up in the final collapse."

Charles Kindleberger


"They run all away, and cry, 'the devil take the hindmost'."

Beaumont and Fletcher, Philaster, or Love Lies a-Bleeding


“It has been more profitable for us to bind together in the wrong direction than to be alone in the right one.  Those who have followed the assertive idiot rather than the introspective wise person have passed us some of their genes.  This is apparent from a social pathology: psychopaths rally followers.”

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan
 

"Through a set of economic policies designed to bail out and subsidize failed and often tainted corporate enterprises, while actively promoting a false sense of confidence to support those policies, the public has become exposed, by those very people entrusted to protect them, to dangerously high levels of hidden counterparty risks. 

The cautionary functions of the media, the political class, and the regulatory bodies have been routinely directed, distorted, and even silenced for the benefit of a highly compromised and increasingly self-serving elite.  And this corruption has begun feeding on its own momentum, resulting in increasingly blatant examples of deception, distortion, and outright theft.  This is crony capitalism, and its deadly credibility trap." 

Jesse, April 2012

 

Stocks retraced the bounce from yesterday, but managed to hold at key support levels.

We may be one exogenous event away from a significant market dislocation.

Precipitous declines of 10+% are always lower probability events, but sometimes the tails are little fatter than at other times.

Gold and silver bounced.  Silver in particular was impressive since it diverged from stocks. 

The VIX fell.  

There is not panic selling yet.   I suspect the specs are buying the dips.

I came in short from last night and got a little shorter on the early bounce.   I trimmed back a bit for the weekend. 

If the major stock indices break below further key supports with the right kind of tension on the tape I will try to start calculating just what kind of decline we may be facing.  

The Fed is active in the markets.   But even they have a limited ability to respond to a significant event.

Stock index option expiration next Thursday.

As next week is Holy Week I will be posting but it may be late or abbreviated.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - A Lapse in Bubble Complacency - Flight to Safety

 

“It has been more profitable for us to bind together in the wrong direction than to be alone in the right one. Those who have followed the assertive idiot rather than the introspective wise person have passed us some of their genes. This is apparent from a social pathology: psychopaths rally followers.” 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan 

 

“The narcissist devours people, consumes their output, and casts the empty, writhing shells aside.”

Sam Vaknin 

 

"Satan’s monomaniac concern with himself and his supposed rights and wrongs is a necessity of the Satanic predicament.  Certainly, he has no choice.  He has chosen to have no choice.  He has wished to ‘be himself,’ and to be in himself and for himself, and his wish has been granted.  To admire Satan, then, is to give one’s vote not only for a world of misery, but also for a world of lies and propaganda, of wishful thinking, of incessant autobiography.  Yet the choice is possible." 

C. S. Lewis 

 

Stocks followed through on the weakness from last week and took a hard trip lower today.

This was a clear flight to safety, as money flowed out of its recent bubble vehicles and sought safer harbors.

Fortunately, at least for now, the SP 500 futures managed to find some footing at key support and rebounded a little from their intraday bottom into the close.

I am watching carefully to see if the two major stock indices that I watch will set a lower low or not.

Gold manged to rally back from the losses of last week.

Silver fell a little in sympathy with its industrial uses component.

The dollar was essentially unchanged.

I did not sense any real panic in the selling today, although the huge increasse in the VIX shows that the pros are buying downside protection with some vigor.

Bubble-vision was pointing fingers at Covid and China the dual scapegoats du jour.

I don't think gold was mentioned much.   

Mostly there were a series of strategists and pundits assuring us that there is no alternative to holding stocks, come what may.

Let's see how the rest of the week goes, and what the Fed does or does not do in reaction to this market weakness.

Do they ignore the stock market?    Are you serious?

Have a pleasant evening.

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Babylon Berlin - Risk On

 

“Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Likewise, not matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if that’s what you are seeking... 

People need to be blinded by knowledge—we are made to follow leaders who can gather people together because the advantages of being in groups trump the disadvantages of being alone.   It has been more profitable for us to bind together in the wrong direction than to be alone in the right one.   Those who have followed the assertive idiot rather than the introspective wise person have passed us some of their genes.   This is apparent from a social pathology: psychopaths rally followers.” 

Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan 

 

Today was definitely a 'risk on' day. 

The VIX dropped sharply. 

Gold, silver and the dollar all declined. 

Stocks rallied sharply. 

There will be a Comex metals option expiration on the 25^th. 

Speaking of risk on I have a long awaited appointment for the covid vaccine tomorrow afternoon, some distance away. 

I will probably not bother to post tomorrow night unless something interesting happens or this goes more smoothly than anticipated. 

Let's see what happens.  

Have a pleasant evening. 

 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Fed Pauses - Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday

“When you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate...

Those who have followed the assertive idiot rather than the introspective wise person have passed us some of their genes.  This is apparent from a social pathology— psychopaths rally followers.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable


"And the people who belong to this world worshiped the beast.  They are the ones whose names are not written in the Book of Life that belongs to the Lamb."

Revelation 13:8

The FOMC came out with their decision today.

They reduced their benchmark short term interest rate by 25 bps.

And they also signalled by a change in wording that they would be more data dependent on any future changes.

Initially this was interpreted as a hawkish stance, and the markets swerved accordingly, with Dollar up and gold/silver down and stocks a bit off.

But in a little while people realied that the Fed was merely shifting into 'neutral' and so those trades reversed.

And so gold, siver, and stocks finished higher with the Dollar lower.

This data dependency might put a little more push behind macroeconomic indicators, such as the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.

After the bell some of the wunderkind stocks such as Facebook, Lyft, Etsy put forward decent results.

For the first time in a little while we saw a large offtake of gold from the Comex Hong Kong warehouses.

And there were no tweets from Trumpolini about the Fed after their announcement this afternoon.  That was probably the most unexpected thing in some time.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Managed Complacency - The Grand Equilibrium

“It has been more profitable for us to bind together in the wrong direction than to be alone in the right one. Those who have followed the assertive idiot rather than the introspective wise person have passed us some of their genes. This is apparent from a social pathology: psychopaths rally followers.”

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan


"Definite signs that business and industry have turned the corner from the temporary period of emergency that followed deflation of the speculative market were seen today by President Hoover. The President said the reports to the Cabinet showed the tide of employment had changed in the right direction." -

News dispatch from Washington, January 21, 1930


"The even larger problem is that there is a kind of chronic complacency that has been rotting American liberalism for years, a hubris that tells Democrats they need do nothing different, they need deliver nothing really to anyone – except their friends on the Google jet and those nice people at Goldman. The rest of us are treated as though we have nowhere else to go and no role to play except to vote enthusiastically on the grounds that these Democrats are the 'last thing standing' between us and the end of the world.It is a liberalism of the rich, it has failed the middle class, and now it has failed on its own terms of electability."

Thomas Frank, 2016

The markets want to see a 25 basis point cut from the Fed's FOMC meeting, which will announce its decision around 2 PM.

They are also going to be listening very carefully to Chairman Powell's press conference, and are expecting some kind of reassurance of the Fed's support for equities and the Banks.

Stocks were a bit wobbly today but managed to rally into the green in the late afternoon.

The Dollar was lower, while gold and silver edged higher. The VIX fell.

After the bell Fedex announced a miss in earnings. They also cut their outlook, citing global macro slowdown. The stock was being spanked rather thoroughly after hours.

Adobe also missed its results after hours.   Smells like teen spirit.

There will be the September stock market options expiration on Friday.

Need little, want less, love more. For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious.Metal Charts - Predator Nation - FOMC Minutes Tomorrow

"Psychopaths are social predators who charm, manipulate, and ruthlessly plow their way through life, leaving a broad trail of broken hearts, shattered expectations, and empty wallets. Completely lacking in conscience and in feelings for others, they selfishly take what they want and do as they please, violating social norms and expectations without the slightest sense of guilt or regret.

Psychopaths often come across as arrogant, shameless braggarts—self-assured, opinionated, domineering, and cocky. They love to have power and control over others and seem unable to believe that other people have valid opinions different from theirs. What makes psychopaths different from all others is the remarkable ease with which they lie, the pervasiveness of their deception, and the callousness with which they carry it out.

The most debilitating characteristic of even the most well-behaved psychopath is the inability to form a workable team.

The majority of people and therefore workplaces are easy prey, because we still want to believe that people are inherently good. We don't really want to believe that such people exist. Wherever you find money, prestige and power you will find them. We are far more likely to lose our life savings to an oily-tongued swindler than our lives to a steely-eyed killer."

Robert D. Hare, Without Conscience


“Over the past quarter century, the leaders of both the Democratic and the Republican political parties have perfected a remarkable system for remaining in power while serving the new economic oligarchy. Both parties take in huge amounts of money, in many forms — campaign contributions, lobbying, revolving-door hiring, favours, and special access of various kinds.

Politicians in both parties enrich themselves and betray the interests of the nation, including most of the people who vote for them. Yet both parties are still able to mobilize support because they skilfully exploit America’s cultural polarization. Republicans warn social conservatives about the dangers of secularism, taxes, abortion, welfare, gay marriage, gun control, and liberals.

Democrats warn social liberals about the dangers of guns, pollution, global warming, making abortion illegal, and conservatives. Both parties make a public show of how bitter their conflicts are, and how dangerous it would be for the other party to achieve power, while both prostitute themselves to the financial sector, powerful industries, and the wealthy. Thus, the very intensity of the two parties’ differences on “values” issues enables them to collaborate when it comes to money.”

Charles Ferguson, Predator Nation

Stocks are still struggling to recover from their recent decline and set a new high.

Gold and silver were hit sharply today early on, but recovered somewhat into the close, as the Dollar strengthened again.

The amount of gold available for delivery at these prices has become shockingly low.

FOMC minutes tomorrow.

Have a pleasant evening.