Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn was speaking today at the 5th Value Investing Congress in New York City.
Two years ago he appeared as a highlight lecture of the show, and laid out his reasons for shorting Lehman Brothers stock. Needless to say there was quite a bit of attention to what he had to say today.
Here are some highlights:
1. A very bleak outlook for the US economy
2. US has a lack of political will to adopt needed financial reforms.
3. Right now he would like to hold gold rather than cash because "gold benefits from poor fiscal policy."
4. Buying long dated options on much higher interest rates in the US and Japan
5. Singled out GE as thwarting financial reform due to their intense lobbying efforts.
Transcript of David Einhorn's presentation.
19 October 2009
Where David Einhorn Sees Value in Today's Markets
PBS Frontline Presents: The Warning - Roots of the Financial Crisis
Many of the same players that were involved in this have been brought back to Washington under the Obama Administration. This is the source of our initial disillusion with Obama as a 'reformer.' He was reforming nothing, just bringing back the crew that started the ball rolling.
Several Republicans played a key role in this sabotage of sound regulation even during the Clinton Administration, including Phil Gramm's crippling of the regulatory process. What was started under Clinton reached its fruition, if not a generalized looting, under the free market ideologues in the Bush Administration and in particular with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
We have not seen it yet, but it is a story that deserves to be told. We hope that Frontline does it justice.
We hope that this is not the phase of the financial crisis when they start trotting out patsies and scapegoats to be thrown under the bus for the amusement and diversion of the crowd from the serious work before us. The US financial system needs a thorough investigation and substantial reform, not more headlines and high profile perp walks. Or we will be back at the brink most assuredly, if we are not there already. It will happen again.
PBS FRONTLINE Presents The Warning
Tuesday, October 20, 2009, at 9 P.M. ET on PBS
The Warning (Video Preview)
"We didn't truly know the dangers of the market, because it was a dark market," says Brooksley Born, the head of an obscure federal regulatory agency -- the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) -- who not only warned of the potential for economic meltdown in the late 1990s, but also tried to convince the country's key economic powerbrokers to take actions that could have helped avert the crisis. "They were totally opposed to it," Born says. "That puzzled me. What was it that was in this market that had to be hidden?"
In The Warning, airing Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2009, at 9 P.M. ET on PBS (check local listings), veteran FRONTLINE producer Michael Kirk (Inside the Meltdown, Breaking the Bank) unearths the hidden history of the nation's worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. At the center of it all he finds Brooksley Born, who speaks for the first time on television about her failed campaign to regulate the secretive, multitrillion-dollar derivatives market whose crash helped trigger the financial collapse in the fall of 2008.
"I didn't know Brooksley Born," says former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt, a member of President Clinton's powerful Working Group on Financial Markets. "I was told that she was irascible, difficult, stubborn, unreasonable." Levitt explains how the other principals of the Working Group -- former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin -- convinced him that Born's attempt to regulate the risky derivatives market could lead to financial turmoil, a conclusion he now believes was "clearly a mistake."
Born's battle behind closed doors was epic, Kirk finds. The members of the President's Working Group vehemently opposed regulation -- especially when proposed by a Washington outsider like Born.
"I walk into Brooksley's office one day; the blood has drained from her face," says Michael Greenberger, a former top official at the CFTC who worked closely with Born. "She's hanging up the telephone; she says to me: 'That was [former Assistant Treasury Secretary] Larry Summers. He says, "You're going to cause the worst financial crisis since the end of World War II."... [He says he has] 13 bankers in his office who informed him of this. Stop, right away. No more.'"
Greenspan, Rubin and Summers ultimately prevailed on Congress to stop Born and limit future regulation of derivatives. "Born faced a formidable struggle pushing for regulation at a time when the stock market was booming," Kirk says. "Alan Greenspan was the maestro, and both parties in Washington were united in a belief that the markets would take care of themselves."
Now, with many of the same men who shut down Born in key positions in the Obama administration, The Warning reveals the complicated politics that led to this crisis and what it may say about current attempts to prevent the next one.
"It'll happen again if we don't take the appropriate steps," Born warns. "There will be significant financial downturns and disasters attributed to this regulatory gap over and over until we learn from experience..."
More Hedge Funds Face Indictments As Federal Wiretaps Uncover Insider Trading Rings
It is about time the Feds started tracking some of the more eyebrow raising examples of insider trading. Whenever there is new, you see a spike in the volume and the options ahead of the announcement these days.
This is most likely the tip of the iceberg, and the hedge funds are not the only culprits.
Its a step in the right direction. Let's hope it is not diversion to placate people because of the lack of serious market reform from Washington.
Bloomberg
U.S. Plans to Charge 10 More After Rajaratnam Arrest
By Joshua Gallu and David Scheer
Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Federal investigators plan to charge at least 10 securities professionals with insider trading, some linked to the criminal case against billionaire hedge-fund manager Raj Rajaratnam that shook Wall Street last week, people familiar with the matter said.
The pending crackdown, more than two years in the making and among the biggest undercover operations into insider trading, may yield charges against hedge-fund managers and their associates as early as this week, the people said, declining to be identified because the cases aren’t public. Authorities had planned to arrest Rajaratnam this week as part of a broader sweep, expediting it after learning he had bought a plane ticket to travel to London on Oct. 16, one person said.
The case against Rajaratnam, built on recorded conversations within a web of alleged conspirators, offers a glimpse of how U.S. investigators are using more aggressive tactics to identify illegal trades hidden within a blizzard of hedge-fund investments. Additional probes stem from a secret Securities and Exchange Commission data-mining project set up to pinpoint clusters of people who make similar well-timed stock investments. Some probes, like the one against Rajaratnam, rely on wiretaps.
“If you’re going to shoot the king, you better shoot to kill,” said Bradley Bennett, a law partner at Baker Botts LLP in Washington who formerly focused on insider-trading cases as an SEC investigator. “If they’re going to take on a billionaire, they need to have the strongest possible cases. The defendant’s own words are the strongest possible evidence....”
The US Needs to Get Less Competitive
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed, and hence clamorous to be led to safety, by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." H. L. Mencken
The hobgoblin that is often used by the Wall Street banks is that if this or that reform is introduced, it will lessen their competitiveness, and their craftiest and most clever employees will leave the country to work for foreign banks.
Is that supposed to be a threat? That sounds like a plan. And let them deduct the price of a one way coach class ticket.
It should be painfully obvious by now, that despite his recent crocodile tears and phony fist waving, that Larry Summers and crew Obama are being bossed around by the banks, for whatever reasons that charity might prevent one from saying.
It is time for a real change, in most cases bringing back what was taken apart over the past twenty years.
If you are a bank, and you take deposits and obtain access to the Fed window and FDIC, you should do nothing other than traditional commercial on balance sheet banking. Period.
If you are an investment bank, you are a no better than a hedge fund. There should be strict limits on the quality and levels of the capital which you employ. And your partners should be exposed to the full extent of your losses. Yes, the full extent.
In the markets there needs to be position limits. If you exceed the position you get fined and surrender 100 percent of any gains. If you do it again your trader gets his license suspended. A third time and your trading license is revoked until you can prove you have gotten your internal controls together.
As for naked short selling. Forget about it. If you fail to deliver within 24 hours you are forced to cover on a market order, like a margin call.
If you receive an exemption for legitimate commercial hedging, your position is published with your name on it on a weekly basis. After all, your hedging decisions are based on information which should be disclosed, sooner rather than later.
The timely disclosure of pricing and volume information in any market is public information and should be disseminated to all parties at the same time, without predatory pricing that inhibits access by the average investor. Or better yet, just make the information feed free, and take the costs as a part of doing business as a licensed exchange.
There are criminal penalties on the books for white collar crimes. When corporations engage in fraud, those penalties should apply to the perpetrators within the firm. The current regime of wrist slap fines from the SEC to be absorbed by shareholders makes the risk-reward ratio an incentive for breaking the law. There needs to be a section of the FBI that deals only and specifically with white collar crime, not as a task force, but as part of its organizational structure.
Corporations, including non-profits, foundations and trusts, are not people, and they do not vote. Only voters should be able to contribute to political campaigns. If this creates a financial problem for politicians who rely on millions of dollar to fund elaborate media and public persuasion campaigns, well then, too bad. There is always the option to pursue public campaign funding. They might actually have to say things and stand on a genuine record actually reported by a legitimate news media.
Time to break up the media conglomerates. Period. The news organizations cannot be controlled by a few corporations. There were limitations on news outlet ownership for many years which were repealed. Bring them back. Diversity of ownership brings checks and balances.
And the financial activity of lobbyists should be limited, recorded, and disclosed on a monthly basis, and in detail. You or any member of your staff go to lunch with a lobbyist, the amount which you accept is reported along with the subject matter discussed. You are a registered lobbyist, and all your lobbying related phone calles and text messages become a matter of public record. The public deseves to hear your case as well as their representatives.
The revolving door between lawmakers, regulators, and the businesses with they oversee must be slammed shut for a period of no less than five years. Time to bone up on a trade besides influence peddling, congressman.
Would this prohibit the best minds from serving the public? Are you kidding me? Look at the government in Washington now. If those are the 'best minds' then the US is in real trouble.
If the US wants to get back on its feet, it is going to have to get serious about restoring its liberty and an even playing field for all its people.
This would be a start. Next up, tax code reform. You want a flat tax? I'll give you a flat tax....
