skip to main |
skip to sidebar
Markets took a pause today on less optimism on Europe and domestic US recovery.
Keep an eye on the sovereign debt situation in Europe because that is a primary short term driver of this market.
Amazon missed and lowered after the bell, and so is getting hammered a bit in the late trade.
The US economy is not recovering and the plans being put forward for change are not likely to help anyone but those who are already fortunate, which does little for the economy but is a great source of personal income for the pigmen and their support system.
Keep an eye out for the next two Comex option expirations in the metals, both tomorrow 26 October but in particular the December expiry on 22 November. Perhaps not so much tomorrow but the days after. And of course December is a key month. I see resistance at 1720 that may prove to be important.
And never forget how the metals markets were ruthlessly slammed down into the October expiration on Sept 27, when the shills and apologists for the banks and hedge funds tell you how sound and fair the markets are, and denounce any evidence to the contrary.
Sometimes it seems that, as Chris Powell so astutely observed, "there are no markets anymore, just interventions."
This is what Markopolos faced when attempting to expose the great Madoff fraud, and it repeats almost endlessly in times of sanctioned corruption. Evidence is gathered by outsiders, presentations are made and ignored, the testimony of whistleblowers is ridiculed and even assaulted, the fraudulent scheme falls in a collapse, the public is tasked to absorb the losses and insiders keep their gains, and the many enablers move on as the public is distracted and forgets.
Nothing will change while crime pays. And even as things change, reform is taken away from the hands of the people, and carefully managed in back rooms and private deals.
"The most dangerous moment for a bad government is when it begins to reform."
Alexis de Tocqueville
Those in positions of authority and beneficiaries of the status quo understand this well. That is the credibility trap that is the impediment to recovery. Reform is an impulse to be carefully managed and directed by the insiders, and those who are implicated in corruption and sometimes even great crimes. The benefits of genuine reform are secondary to the appearance that 'something is being done.'
And if the charade goes on long enough, the people begin to take to the public squares and the streets, because they are otherwise being ignored, betrayed and abused.
The moment is most dangerous when the decision is made whether to answer the people with change, or stifle their just complaints with repression. Then the die is cast, and the great moment of history truly begins.
It is good to see gold open interest on the Comex at relatively low levels here, as the commercials continue to cover ahead of the enactment of position limits, projected to occur in the first month of 2012.
"The desire of gold is not for gold. It is for the means of freedom and knowledge."
Ben Davies
Gold and silver diverged from US equities today as fresh jitters over the Euro bailout put a damper on stocks.
Keep the $45+ rally in context of the current trading range however as is shown below. It has not yet broken out.
If you are trading with Level II market view in something like the miners or a less liquid ETF, you may place a bid or ask of a thousand shares or more, and it quickly finds a lot of 'friends' of a lesser amount jumping in front of it. And when you place a sell into a group of bids, a tiny amount may be filled, but then the bids disappear and drop lower.
These are thin, volatile markets, permeated by fraud, deception, and front-running of everything from global headlines down to individual bids. The talking heads and Wall Street demimonde are spinning stories and alternatively feeding hysteria and euphoria, greed and fear, under cover of the lax regulation and co-opted public policy.
The US financial system has gone predatory. The political system has given itself over to the corporate interests. Nothing could be more clear in the regressive tax proposals coming out of the Republican debates, and the Democrats are feeding greedily at the same trough of foul campaign funds and special privileges.
If you are a daytrader and can make money playing the momentum in this then good for you. But I think that most people who attempt to trade these markets will make very little on net, and are more likely to lose money. Better to stay with the longer term trends based on fundamentals. This will get worse before it gets better.
