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"When a man takes an oath, he's holding his very self in his own hands, like water. And if he opens his fingers then, he needn't hope to find himself again."
Thomas More, A Man For All Seasons
The metals are right up against key resistance, and the bear are trying to make a goal line stand.
I have shorts back on the stocks after today's rally. I am balancing those with some metals longs.
A bounce higher broke the four day downtrend in equities. But they are still moving in a fairly narrow range and on light volumes.
Facebook is the big tickle du jour. See the intraday comments on that topic as well as the role of risk in the markets, the Commodity Wars, and MF Global.
Morgan Stanley is taking the lead.
Will it be NAS: FB or NYS: FB?
The filing is said to be coming this afternoon.
If it does come out at $100 Billion I think it is more than fully valued. You would have to go back to the tech bubble for growth comps in that range.
And Facebook is certainly no Google or Apple.
But it is a mistake to underestimate the greed and gullibility of people determined to become rich without working for it, and their willingness to risk hot money that they view as an overvalued, depreciating asset class.
Still if it comes out that high, and then pops and flops, stick a fork in this phase of the stock bubble. Sometimes they do ring a bell, and often right after ripping off your Facebook.
But if it comes out that high and then rallies, we might be looking at a return to a familiar theme.
As one corporate CEO said privately to incredulous staff at the height of the internet bubble while paying an enormous premium for a major acquisition, 'I am paying with stock, and my currency is cheap.' His currency was indeed cheap, and within a year or two it was about 95 percent cheaper. But by then he had already departed for greener pastures and the golf links.
How low can the dollar go? How much cheaper can it get? That may help in pricing this oinker out. It might even look pretty after a few rounds of print goggles.
But on the other non-real recovery hand, how many ads can a national economy sell to people with no jobs and no money?
Stay tuned...
Note: This card can be played by Insiders only. Collect the funds from the players around the table.
