SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Pivotal Week Ahead - Mortgage Slump

As you can see on the charts we have symmetrical triangles on the big stock charts.

It looks like next week will be a pivotal week for US equities.

There will be more in the way of economics news and earnings, and I believe that Janet Yellen will be doing her Humphrey-Hawkins testimony.

 

There was some analysis today that most cash home purchases in the US can be attributed to buying by Wall Street and Chinese investors looking to expatriate their newly found wealth. 

 

Mortgage originations from Wells Fargo are show in the first chart below.

 

 And as you know I will be keeping an eye on some key international developments and other potential outliers.

I held off putting any straight up stock positions on, although the emotional side was itching to short the gross complacency.

 

 I'll wait for a clearer signal from the charts, and a bigger trend change perhaps.  One can become tired of these short term wash and rinse cycles.

Have a pleasant weekend.

 

 

 

 

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Watch Silver

“The true soldier fights not because he hates what is in front of him, but because he loves what is behind him.”

G.K. Chesterton

The precious metals had an interesting pop this morning on equity weakness, but like most light volume sleepy days in Summer that did not last.

Gold had an interesting spike up to about 1344, but I am watching silver for any clues on which way the metals are heading, and so far silver is playing rope-a-dope on any pullbacks, hanging on to 21.

There was some movement in the silver warehouses, with CNT providing the flow.

If we do get any kind of metals breakout I think it will happen after the 16th towards the latter part of the month.

But it has been a long time coming if it does.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Stutter Step

Stocks dumped today then came back in the afternoon.  That is called a 'stutter step' in US football.

This is why I do not like to short a dull market, except in quick advantageous hits, widely interspersed.

We are in a symmetrical triangle on the NDX 100, and we will need to go with whatever way it breaks.  Don't ask me which way it will because I do not know. 

VIX ticked up today. Follow through is everything.

Eyes on late July.

Have a pleasant evening.

 

Some Good News For a Lazy Summer Afternoon

This is the good news for the day.

Your emptiness may be filled, your fears and hatreds extinguished, your yearnings satisfied, your loneliness banished, your tears dried, your weariness relieved.

This is no vain request, this is no solicitation, this is no new fashion or fad, no popular philosophy among many.

It is the most real thing that you may have, the only substantial and lasting part of an otherwise contingent and passing reality, here today and gone tomorrow.  As the planets grow cold and the stars burn out, nothing else remains.  That is true value.

This is the truth that has been hidden from those who think themselves learned and wise, lost in their frenzy of pride and fear. It is hidden from those whose love has grown cold and hearts become hard because of the increase in wickedness and the prevalence of greed.

It is given freely to those who would be His, gentle and humble in heart. Those on the way who stumble along and fall now and then, following His call as best they can, like little children.

The real substance and purpose of life cannot be apprehended by our minds alone. But we can see what is missing, and feel its loss.  And in this God calls to us, and denies no one who answers with an open heart. We forge our own chains, well hardened by anger and pride, and grow familiar with them. In serving none but ourselves, we vainly think ourselves free in our willfulness. We make our own hell and firmly lock the door to it, from the inside.

You have been called.  Find your calling in His will, and a willingness to serve.

“We are slow to master the great truth that even now Christ is, as it were, walking among us, and by His hand, or eye, or voice, bidding us to follow Him. We do not understand that His call is a thing that takes place now. We think it took place in the Apostles' days, but we do not believe in it; we do not look for it in our own case.

There is an inward world, which none see but those who belong to it.

God beholds you. He calls you by your name. He sees you and understands you as He made you. He knows what is in you, all your peculiar feelings and thoughts, your dispositions and likings, your strengths and your weaknesses. He views you in your day of rejoicing and in your day of sorrow. He sympathizes in your hopes and your temptations. He interests Himself in all your anxieties and remembrances, all the risings and fallings of your spirit.

He encompasses you round and bears you in His arms. He notes your very countenance, whether smiling or in tears. He looks tenderly upon you. He hears your voice, the beating of your heart, and your very breathing. You do not love yourself better than He loves you.

You cannot shrink from pain more than He dislikes your bearing it; and if He puts it on you, it is as you would put it on yourself, if you would be wise, for a greater good afterwards.

God has created me to do Him some definite service; He has committed some work to me which He has not committed to another. I have my mission -- I may never know it in this life but I shall be told it in the next.

I am a link in a chain, a bond of connection between persons. He has not created me for naught.

I shall do good, I shall do His work. I shall be an angel of peace, a preacher of truth in my own place while not intending it if I do but keep His commandments.

Therefore I will trust Him. Whatever I am, I can never be thrown away. If I am in sickness, my sickness may serve Him; in perplexity, my perplexity may serve Him. If I am in sorrow, my sorrow may serve Him.

He does nothing in vain. He knows what He is about.

He may take away my friends. He may throw me among strangers. He may make me feel desolate, make my spirits sink, hide my future from me -- still He knows what He is about.

Let us feel what we really are--sinners attempting great things. Let us simply obey God's will, whatever may come. He can turn all things to our eternal good. Easter day is preceded by the forty days of Lent, to show us that they only who sow in tears shall reap in joy.

Fear not that thy life shall come to an end, but rather that it shall never have had a beginning.

May the Lord support us all the day long, till the shades lengthen, and the evening comes, and the busy world is hushed, and the fever of life is over, and our work is done.

Then in His mercy may He give us safe lodging, and a holy rest, and peace at last.”

John Henry Newman

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Gold Pops Back, Economy Falters

"True bravery is always an act of love, of family and friends, of truth, duty, and honor. To stand and face the unknown requires that we care for something more than ourselves. There is no greater act than to move forward with our heart while our mind tells us to flee."

Much as I would like to serve up some legendary comments about the intense action in the precious metals markets today, the fact of the matter is that not much happened. Well, at least as far as the markets are concerned. I enjoyed working in the yard outside although the heat was a bit oppressive.

The claiming action in the Comex yesterday was minimal, and the warehouses were fairly quiet, although the ins and outs in the CNT silver warehouse still serve to impress a bit.

The metals popped higher led by gold which poked its nose over 1330 for a little while, seemingly off the FOMC minutes which really did not say much of anything new. The Fed will continue to taper until QE ends in October. And the unspoken 'unless' in that is 'unless something happens.'

They can keep rolling the bonds and interest over, and continue to expand their Balance Sheet. I suspect that they have bought so many Treasuries that they risk distorting the repos market, which is one reason why the taper is in place.

But the dollar dropped, and so gold popped.

Let's see how earnings continue to come in. We might see a little more action in mid-July as the BRICs gather, but as noted before, these big changes tend to happen very slowly, and then out of nowhere, all in a rush.

There are plenty of jobs, crap jobs at minimal wages. Political soft corruption prevails, and the lack of direction in the country towards big infrastructure projects is appalling. The US should be building major hubs of renewable power generation distributed by an upgraded and resilient power grid. New bridges and railways, harbor improvements and productivity enhancements spurring employment and demand would be a welcome development.

But this is not to be. The government is in the hands of the monied interests, and the printing being done by the Fed is directed into the unreformed private financial machine that strips assets, and builds little or nothing. Wall Street is truly a crooked casino, largely consumed with taxing the real economy with rigged speculation.

These are the dog days of Summer.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Bow Wow

Today was another dull day, with a dead cat bounce off the lows of the past couple of days.

Tomorrow will tell us if this is a real rally back, or just reflexive dip buying.

The FOMC minutes were the big tickle today, showing that the Fed will stay on a steady taper pace to end QE in October.

Some of the Fed members noticed that the markets seem 'complacent.'

Wow. What a surprise. Floating higher on a bubble of easy money, hand delivered to some.

Have a pleasant evening.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - The 'Independent Fed' - Deutschland vs Brasilien

Gold and silver were hit by a trailing stop boogie woogie this morning, a half feeble effort to shake out the long who are running their stop loss orders a bit close.  These sorts of things do not bother us because we have an intermediate to longer term investment horizon, right?  lol.

Otherwise gold and silver finished largely unchanged on the day.

Much more interesting than this lazy Summer trade is the World Cup game in progress, with Germany dominating Brazil, 5-0.   The Germans unleashed a four goal torrent in a six minute period of the first half.  I thought one of the goals was a replay.   Brazil has not allowed five goals in an entire World Cup series since 1998. 

Well you know what they say, lucky in the World Cup, unlucky in holding on to your gold reserves.

We *might* see some precious metals action in the latter part of July in the metals, based on some things the BRICs may be doing and some derivatives related events, but I am not overly excited about it yet.  The Fed has the markets in hand it appears. 

In response to a couple of emails I would like to take a minute to remind you all again that the Federal Reserve system is owned by their member banks, who receive a 6% dividend for their shares from the profits that the NY Fed makes on its market operations.

It is not a government entity.  It operates under the license of the law passed in 1913.   The Fed has not always existed, and the central bank in the US has an interesting and sometimes controversial history.

Although the government has some oversight, which the Fed peddles hard on their own websites, and can take measures if they have the will for it,  the Fed is a private institution with a significant amount of its market power concentrated in New York.  The Fed has its own level of 'opaqueness and independence.'   One can debate whether this is a good thing or a bad thing, or just a thing.  But I did want to reiterate that popular misconception.

For now this is the dog days of Summer, and a good time to do work outside, and to spend time with your family if you can.

We had a quick lesson in apartments for rent in Brooklyn, as our number one son will be starting graduate school in the NYC area this Fall. The rents and house prices in the NYC metro area, including Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, and the Jersey area around Hoboken and Jersey City, are in a barking mad real estate bubble related to the rebound in the financial sector jobs and profits.

I am hearing of many places being purchased and then left vacant as 'stores of wealth' by overseas investment money.  And this is not even as intense as the things I am hearing from friends in London.   House prices in the NYC are back to pre-financial collapse levels and beyond in many areas according to Zillow. 

Have a pleasant evening.