31 December 2014

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - And the First Runner Up Is....


"...the burning roof and tower, and Agamemnon, dead."
There is certainly no doubt that 2014 was 'the Year of the Dollar,' as King Buck staged a rally, based on a comparison to some historically important currencies as embodied in the DX index.

I have shown this is the latest update of the US Dollar Very Long Term Chart here.

In fact, the greenback has hit levels not seen since the last financial crisis.  You know, the one in 2008 that everyone has already forgotten, and which seems just as likely to reoccur as if we had done little or nothing about what had caused it in the first place. 
 
I was amused to see a chart posted over at Zerohedge that shows that the next best performing currency in the world after the dollar was gold of all things.   That chart is shown below.  This presumes that one would count gold as a proper 'currency.' 
 
I would say not quite, since technically no sovereign will admit to it at this point.  There is a patina of official sanction about a proper money.  The central banks all hold it, and some are buying it quite vigorously especially since 2006.  So it does have the character of a natural currency and enduring store of value, despite the blatherings and propaganda campaigns of its official detractors. 

Perhaps propaganda is too strong a word for our polite society, all whitewash on the outside, with the bones of the brutally savaged carefully hidden within..  'Manufacturing consent' and 'molding perceptions' is what we call the persuasion campaigns in our genteel era.  Propaganda is an ugly word, so let's put some icing on it and call it something else.

In addition to being a 'store of value' a currency must be a 'money' and for now at least it is the ultimate foreign currency, being exchangeable around the world, but no where treated as a routine means of purchasing items directly with some sort of official nod to its role as a form of money.
 
That may change in the years ahead.  I don't wish for it too eagerly, because I would like to see gold run a bit in value, mostly making up for lost time as it were, before nations get involved and start trying to fix its prices officially.  For now they are doing it unofficially, or at least some of them are doing so, and they are probably doing a bad job of it, in the longer term scheme of things.

They'll never learn. Never.  It is in their very nature not to learn.  They are not learning people.  They are headstrong power people, always wanting to run the show according to their own fancies, and therefore consistently reaching for some combination of force and fraud to impose their wills and their ideas.  Because they know better.  They are the epitome of progress, thoroughly modern and the recipients of special knowledge that sets them above and beyond all others.
 

"Queens have died, young and fair.  Dust hath closed Helen's eye..."
 
But as we know, it's all rubbish.  They speak well, and learn to impress, but they don't know anything new.  They mostly practice the same old tricks with different names and fancier titles.  An object lesson will therefore most likely be required, to be administered by the back of the invisible hand when their schemes go off in a bad way, as they seem to do about every five or six years now.
 
Thank you for your patronage at Le Café for another year.  I am pleased to note that there have been 34,915,180 customers served since opening at this location in February, 2007.  
 
This is not bad for what is most like just a small village café, off the main roads and patronized largely by locals, travelers and the disposed.  The goal is to provide a warm and familiar refuge for those who have become weary of the often tasteless fare produced and served in volumes at the larger commercial establishments of the day.
 
And there is often entertainment, and pleasant diversions from the day!  lol
 
If you have obtained any benefits from this establishment during this year past, as always, please pay it forward.  There is a decided lack of love in the world, and unrewarded kindness often works wonders for both the recipient and the one who gives, not for advantage, but out of a recognition of our own obligations, and at its best, love.
 
Have a very Happy New Year.
 
 
 
 




SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Not with a Bang, But a Whimper


Having served its purpose, the paint was peeling off the tape with some vigor today.

Mr. Market shed some of its recent water weight, from the watering of its stocks indices, for the purposes of improving the bonuses of the financial class for the end of the year.

The first week of January may have an upward bias, depending on what happens. We may see some follow through selling on Friday, but the markets will be abnormally quiet most likely.

It is the whole of January that may likely set the tone for the new year, and not the first week. So we should watch this next month rather closely, so see what the themes might be, and how speculators, I would not dignify what they do by calling them investors, take the economic news as 'good' or 'bad' for certain classes of financial instruments.

Have a Happy New Year.






US Dollar Very Long Term Chart for Year End 2014


The US dollar has ended this year on a high note not seen in some time, not since the time of the financial crisis and collapse in 2008.

Dollar strength, at least in this index, is largely a reciprocal function of weakness in the euro, and to a lesser extent the yen, the pound, and the loon.

I have not worked the data yet, and may not do so for some time, but I would imagine that this spike in dollar strength will see the same sort of demand coming out of Europe as we saw in the two prior instances labeled Eurodollar Squeeze I & II.

This time it is most likely helped by the ongoing crisis in the yen and the ruble, the first being the objective of Abenomics, and the latter being the target of the West, through the actions of their sanctions and the currency action of their Banks, in this phase of the ongoing currency war.

In general, a stronger currency helps the financial and foreign investment sectors of a nation, and is much less helpful for the manufacturing and producing sectors.  It tends to make exports more expensive, and imports more affordable. And it gives purchasing power for those of a mind to acquire and privatize major foreign assets.

This is not a prescription for a recovery in a real producing economy, but it is a boost to the moneyed class of financiers.  This is in keeping with the financialization of the economy that came to fruition during the 1990's, and has continued to dominate the economy and the political process ever since.

Let's see how things develop in 2015.