Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Charts Undecided - Goldman Takes A Little More

"Don't get involved in partial problems, but always take flight to where there is a free view over the whole single great problem, even if this view is still not a clear one."

Ludwig Wittgenstein, Notebooks, Nov 1914

We say goodbye to August, and the active month for gold at The Bucket Shop, and welcome the first stirrings of September, which promises to be much more interesting for silver.

Prices were heavy for the metals most of the day, with silver showing a little more perkiness, but gold doggedly hanging on to close for a slight gain.

We have an interesting, if yet undecided, chart formation on the daily gold chart in a potential cup and handle formation that, if activated and confirmed, will target a minimum objective of around $1,255 and even a likely test of the big prior support from the trading range at $1,270.

To put this potential formation to 'work' gold must continue to hold its successful retest of 1120 on the 'handle,' and move to take and break the top of the cup at 1170.   This is no mean feat, since gold is being pressed upon so heavily by the meddlers in the forex crosses.  Despite the propaganda, it most certainly is a currency of the world.

Silver is just coming into its own and September will most likely to provide some fireworks for the beta rocket, depending on which way the black swans start coming home to roost.  We have already seen the first deliveries taken for September, as noted on the clearing report below, of about 835,000 ounces.

I keep hearing stories of retail shortages and premiums that are certainly interesting.  I will be more interested if we start seeing some pressures at the wholesale level.

Gold went out quietly, with Goldman stopping another 49 August contracts for their 'house account.'

I am hearing some talk about leaner times for gold bullion supplies at the LBMA for this booming physical gold market in Asia and India.  There is certainly not much bullion up for sale at these prices in NY. Perhaps the bullion banks will use a quiet September to regroup and reform, if they get a quiet month that is.

Better not to try and guess, and look ahead too much however.   These pool operations, which we are almost certainly seeing now in my judgement, take a long time to reach their natural conclusion.  But they always seem to get there one way or the other.

So perhaps we can use this time to get our own houses in order, to put our pieces on the board where we are sure that we will have them if things get more interesting.  I certainly would not wish to put them in an unallocated pile in some vault managed by the status quo, since possession is nine-tenths of the law to these jokers, as we saw with MFGlobal's default.

I am ambivalent about the miners here, mostly because I am in the position of owning some, which I have not done for quite some time.  But silver is too temping with its 77:1 ratio to gold, and the absolutely beaten down into the ground place of some fairly tempting mining stocks.

Oh well, let's see if we can get something more substantial to hang our hats on, like the activation of a chart formation or some especially bullion friendly news for a change.  The gold trolls were out in force today on the financial networks, so we will have to see what this means if anything.

There was a greater than usual amount of information about the metals posted over the weekend, so you may wish to scroll down and have a look if you have not done so already.   There are quite a few odd little things happening that seem to be missed by most.

Have a pleasant evening.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - September Song

"The ideological and physical hold of American imperial power, buttressed by the utopian ideology of neoliberalism and global capitalism, is unraveling. Most, including many of those at the heart of the American empire, recognize that every promise made by the proponents of neoliberalism is a lie. Global wealth, rather than being spread equitably, as neoliberal proponents promised, has been funneled upward into the hands of a rapacious, oligarchic elite, creating vast economic inequality.

The working poor, whose unions and rights have been taken from them and whose wages have stagnated or declined over the past 40 years, have been thrust into chronic poverty and underemployment, making their lives one long, stress-ridden emergency. The middle class is evaporating. Cities that once manufactured products and offered factory jobs are boarded up-wastelands. Prisons are overflowing. Corporations have orchestrated the destruction of trade barriers, allowing them to stash $2.1 trillion in profits in overseas banks to avoid paying taxes. And the neoliberal order, despite its promise to build and spread democracy, has hollowed out democratic systems to turn them into corporate leviathans."

Chris Hedges, The Great Unraveling

US stocks came in a bit shaky this morning, but managed to rally back up close to unchanged during the day.

Alas, it was not to be, and stocks sold off in the afternoon, going out on the close at or near to their lows.

This is the 50% retracement area here from the recent big decline last Monday.

Stocks need to own this level, and start climbing back up to at least retest the prior big support area that had formed the bottom of the longer trading range.

If we get too sharp a rally higher that fails, let's say around a Fed rate hike in September or October, then it might be Katy-Bar-The-Door time, because a rally that fails after a steep decline in a long trend rally to these kinds of lofty heights is, in the words of classic technical analysis, 'bad news.'

But lots of things can happen between now and the end of the year.

I would feel better if I thought that the powers-that-be were doing anything close to some real solutions for the economy, and not just playing extend and pretend with an unsustainable quiet riot of upper crust looting and malfeasance.

But that is not in the cards it seems.  And most things tend to fill one with concern.

But nevertheless, let's see what happens.

Bernie Sanders Interview: 'The Business Model of Wall Street Is Fraud'

Most people are sick and tired of the system as it is now.  And they are once again attempting to reject the status quo, having been badly disappointed by Obama and the Congress.  And this gives rise to popular movements and even third parties.

The biggest problem with popular movements is that they either tend to be co-opted by the most powerful in the status quo and used badly, misdirected and deceived, as in the case of the Tea Party, or diffused by too many factions and  lack of prioritization resulting in a lack of effective cohesion, as in the case of the Occupy Movement.

And so we have the ascendancy of the Wall Street wing of the Democratic Party, and the Koch Brothers wing of the Republicans.

And the corrupting power of Big Money underlies all of it, in part thanks to the Supreme Court ruling in Citizens United that defined corporations as having the rights but not the obligations of people, and money as free speech, while doing nothing to remediate the actual use of free speech by real people except in special zones and restricted venues, subject to some of the most oppressive abuse of the secrecy laws..

Contrast this with the anti-War movement of the 1960's which was driven by a single issue:  end the war in Vietnam.  The message was simple and clear, and it took hold, fritghtening the political establishment and hounding first Johnson to withdraw, and then Nixon to be so weakened and desperately foolish  that he caused his own downfall.

And so we have the more focused, non-establishment campaigns of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump shaking up the accepted norms in political campaigning wisdom.

I would like to think that finally, after all these misspent years, the 'same old same old,' no matter how artfully the spin machines may brand them, cannot win again.

The probability for change is higher now than in the past.  But how it eventually turns out is another question.  The electoral process is still very young, and many things may happen between now and next November.  And the power of money and of powerful connections between the shadow government and the moneyed interests is still there, still lurking in the shadows and pulling strings.

Interesting times.

Gold Coming Off the LBMA Spiked Last Week

There was a interesting spike in physical gold activity last week on the LBMA.

It could be some seasonal phenomenon connected with the end of August and the approach of the prime season for gold.

But it also seems consistent with the 'tension on the tape' that I have been seeing.  And a number of little indicators and some interesting things, like the generally 'well informed' Goldman taking delivery of gold at the Comex for their house account.

One outcome of this increase in physical gold flows *might* be the realization of the cup and handle bottom formation on the gold chart, and a quick run to target around the 1250 to 1270 area.   And depending on what else goes with it, that might just be for openers.

Or it might once again be ignored and come to nothing.

But it does seem that the gold flows from the West to the markets in China and India are intensifying at these prices based on a number of diverse data points.

One cause of this could be a divergence between the paper price of gold with leverage and the actual physical markets because the price of gold as set in London and New York is below the clearing price in dollars as part of a momentum trend in the forex markets.

If a commodity price is set below the natural clearing price, one would expect to see the demand for the real underlying asset increasing.

Those who flatly dismiss the possibility there can be such a divergence between the market price and the natural clearing price have not been paying attention to what has been going on in any number of rigged markets over the past few years.

The excessive speculation fueled by a surfeit of paper money in a few hands and slack regulation that permits the unsustainable reckless pyramiding of positions is a good contender for the theme of the last two decades.

For what it is worth, I am seeing what appear to be increasing signs of 'fragility' in the precious metals market.   And in a nutshell, I am thinking that we are seeing a bear market bottom.  Trends, especially in forex related markets, often tend to overshoot and overstay their time.

But like the proverbial search for the lost keys, we will find the end of this era of financial madness in the last crisis, and perhaps that will be the one that breaks the Banks.


The chart below was provided by Nick Laird at goldchartsrus.com.