02 February 2017

Just Charts at 3:45 PM - Non-Farm Payrolls For January Tomorrow


Markets are sideways choppy ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls Report tomorrow.

Have a pleasant evening.




Bread and Roses: The Lawrence Massachusetts Textile Strike of 1912


"What connects two thousand years of genocide (and the abuse of human rights)? Too much power in too few hands."

Simon Wiesenthal

People forget, and too often the schools and the media fail to remind us, that even within our own history reforms such as the eight hour work day, basic workplace safety, and the end to abusive child labor were won in a long and determined struggle, not only with ballots, but too often with great personal sacrifice and even blood.

Yes there is no doubt that regulation can go too far, and become counterproductive. But simple dispensing with it based on the romantic notion of naturally efficient markets has a long history of terrible human rights abuses.

This is why unrestricted globalization is always going to be in a problematic dynamic relationship with individual and national freedom and choices. 'Globalization' can be used as a soft coup d'etat against national laws and principles of government, ie. democracy with a Bill of Rights and certain compacts between the leaders and the governed.

If, for example, the US were still constituted as 'part free and part slave owning,' one can easily imagine how that would imbalance the determination of the freedoms of many who hold themselves together within a common monetary and fiscal union. Indeed, this is one of the great weaknesses of the EU, in that their monetary union advantages some and inflicts hardships on others. The fortunate are, of course, perfectly content with it, and tend to blame the disadvantaged in all the objectifying ways that people have always done throughout history.

The notion that there is some 'invisible hand' sorting out these markets across the globe without human intervention, known as 'rules,' is utopian nonsense that works only in the minds of sophists and apologists for the moneyed interests within their servile economic and too often elitist theories about natural superiority of some over others. Class warfare and colonialism are just other names for the tyranny of the few over the many, the power of might abusing justice and 'right.'

The more probable result of unrestricted trade and multinational arbitrage by powerful and essentially nationless corporate interests is to drive the standard of living and quality of life for the majority of the people down to the lowest common denominator of whatever tinpot dictatorship or repressive oligarchy that chooses to abuses its own people and nature with the abusive use of force.




01 February 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday


"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity...

And what rough Beast, its hour come 'round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?"

W. B. Yeats, The Second Coming, 1919

The Fed did nothing today, and their jawbones must have been fatigued.

Stocks continued in a relatively narrow range.

Gold and silver continued to hover underneath overhead resistance.

There will be a Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.  It just became much more interesting because the ADP private employment report came in today far to the upside.  Details are in the economic news slide below.

Everything seems to be a mixed bag in the news.

Trump is injecting plenty of uncertainty, but the rally of hope for change continues hanging in there.

There is a huge divergence between the 'soft surprises' and 'hard surprises' in the company earnings reports.   The hard data is of course money, and the soft surprises are found in clicks and tricks, and assorted metrics of the non-financial sort.

I have trouble taking a non-haven position in these markets, because I just cannot escape the feeling that we are in for a really serious breakout, one way or another.  But so far, no.

There will be a PET scan tomorrow for the queen to examine her torso, where most of the action has been for the past few years.  It was highly unusual for a colon cancer to move to the brain. The PET is a CAT scan with a couple of barium milkshakes thrown in beforehand to light up the areas of unusual metabolic activity.  Since cancer tends to be 'fast growing' it lights up the chart, along with any other faster growing processes.  Basic chemo is also based on this fact, and the chemicals kill cells as they grow, including cancer and other fast growing cells like hair, etc.

Now you may understand why the goal is to find more 'targeted' treatments like modified T cells that search out and kill the cancer cells, and not kill cells more widely, and make the patients sick, and weaken over time.  But the innovations are coming slowly.

I have been doing a lot more housework, and also have been 'pampering' the queen.  lol  She becomes very physically tired in the afternoon.

Our money and priorities are for the most part elsewhere, disconnected from many of the common realities of most people. This is part of the reason for our historic economic inequalities.  But there is an underlying goodness and kindness that you can find if you look for it, and let yourself become a part of it.  We just forget, because we see so much wickedness and greed, and it gets the most attention.

As William Butler Yeats put it in the aftermath of the first World War, 'the best lack all conviction, while the worst are filled with passionate intensity.'   Perhaps, but these things come and go.  And when it becomes bad enough, people rouse themselves from their torpor, and change comes, one way or another.

That is not what it is to be human.  Most do not even have a genuine understanding of what that means anymore.   They think, well, if Mother Teresa abandoned the poor and ran off to be an investment banker or an actress, well, that would only be human.

We are content to be trousered apes.  We make beasts of ourselves to avoid the pain of seeing what we really serve, and who we are slowly becoming.

At some point, not to become fully human in every sense of the word and to hold on to your humanity is, in the end, the only real tragedy.

Have a pleasant evening.



31 January 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - FOMC Rate Decision Tomorrow


Gold and silver moved sharply higher today as the US dollar gave up more of its recent gains.

There was overnight commentary on the large number of Comex deliveries for the February gold contract. The gold does not go anywhere for the most part, but it does get shoved around the plate for leverage.

In other words, at the moment the precious metals are running as a paper cross trade with currencies, with actual bullion playing a minor role at best. While this is not uncommon, it is not exactly in synch with the actual physical supply and demand flows in the Asian markets. When speculation disconnects from the physical markets for long enough, we eventually get a jarring reversion.

Stocks gave it up a little, with Washington and Wall Street getting edgy over Trump and his initial executive actions, as needlessly distorted as some of them might be by the friends of Wall Street in the corporate media. The status quo has ruled the roost in this country pretty well for the past 20+ years. Now that they are not handing down pre-ordained policy outcomes, they are not sure what to do. It is like a guy who has been trading on insider information for years suddenly having to figure out exactly what the markets are saying.

The next four years are sure to be interesting.

The FOMC will be announcing their latest rate decision tomorrow. Let's see if the metals can hold close to their most recent upper trendline impact as you can see on the charts.

Most likely is an announcement that the Fed will be slowly winding down some of their reinvestment program as rates continue rising. I am not so sure they will actually do anything except for jawboning.

There seems to be a lot of that going on in Washington these days.

Have a pleasant evening.


30 January 2017

February Comex Gold Comes In With a Bang


Deliveries on February Comex Gold contracts came in with a bang.

Silver, not so much.

The customers were disgorging positions, with a huge one coughing it up at JPM.

Let's see if the metals can finally put together a breakout over this stubborn overhead resistance.

As large as this 'delivery' might be for Comex, it is still relatively peanuts compared to the physical markets of Asia.   That is where the action is.