17 March 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Quad Options Witching


"May the road rise up to meet you.
May the wind always be at your back.
May the sun shine warm upon your face,
and rains fall soft upon your fields.
And until we meet again,
May God hold you in the palm of His hand."

Today was the quad witching options expiration for stocks.

Stocks finished largely unchanged.

The economic data is coming in mixed as usual. It is very subject to interpretation and bias.

However, one of the clearer things to me at least is that without a decent increase in median wages and quality of jobs, full time and benefits versus part time 'gig' jobs, there will be no sustainable recovery.

This preoccupation with wage growth by the Fed and related economists is hard to stomach, when they turn such a blind eye to gross inequity and financial asset bubbles. Well, we love those whom we serve, and despise the others.

I have been preparing the queen for Spring break. She will be going with one of the god-daughters down South for a week's vacation. And I will certainly miss her, but enjoy a week to myself.

The young man went to Boston with his friends for St. Patrick's Day.  He has now moved out of our house, having just come back last year from Brooklyn to help when the queen was physically disabled.  He wanted to be closer to his university in NYC, and the two hour each way train and subway trip was getting old.   He was a huge help and great company.  He is my joy and my consolation.

So, a week alone with just Dolly. I think after I clean things up a bit, and catch up on the laundry, I might just enjoy some time off. Remodeling the bathroom did cross my mind, but it was a quick crossing. Why spoil a good thing.

Remember God's creatures, and the poor for whom life is hard and who are too often despised by the fortunate as deserving their misfortune. Our failings are bad luck, and our wins are all due to our hard work and natural talent. Little do we realize how 'there but for the grace of God go I.'

Have a pleasant weekend.




16 March 2017

Bernie Sanders Goes to West Virginia To Speak With Trump Supporters


But earlier in the week, he [Bernie Sanders] said in a CNN interview that “a total transformation of the Democratic Party” was still in order, and that he had also not yet given the D.N.C. — which he called the “establishment’s house” — access to his campaign email list. “It’s not some magical system,” Sanders told me, disdain dripping off the word “magical.” “How do we bring in, how do you raise money from, those people?  You know what?  You’ve got to stand for something.”

I asked him if he thought the Democratic Party knew what it stood for. “You’re asking a good question, and I can’t give you a definitive answer,” he said.  “Certainly there are some people in the Democratic Party who want to maintain the status quo.  They would rather go down with the Titanic so long as they have first-class seats.”

Charles Homans, NY Times Magazine, The New Party of No

Caution on Language



Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Bears Make Money, Bulls Make Money


It's an old Wall Street saying that 'bears make money, bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered.'

I think that observation might also apply to those who make public policy, those in the political and professional classes. And brother, they seem to be wanting to go whole hog.

I am afraid a lot of people who thought they were going to get one thing and going to get another, and in spades. Well, as noted here often, one makes their choices, and then takes the consequences. Not that I have any special talent for being right. But if you do all things with love, I think the consolations of even the poor decisions makes it all come out better in the longer run.

Today Wall Street paused after the 'Fed is dovish' rally yesterday. The Fed will make hawkish noises because they are starting to fear their latest bubble, but their resolve is thin. They can look at the real numbers as easily as we can, and they do not support a recovering real economy by any means.

Gold and silver made another push higher on the weaker dollar, and then fell back a bit into the close on profit taking. Not everything has to be manipulation. But there is certainly enough of that going around that only the willfully blind or naive cannot see, and I no longer have any patience with that sort of behaviour.

But why argue with scoundrels.  We'll let the market sort it all out, eventually.

I like the chart action so far. Let's see what happens next.

Have a pleasant evening.




15 March 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts


The Fed did what was entirely expected today, and did it with a pedestrian view towards the future increases.  Slow and steady.

And so the markets were 'surprised', the dollar dumped hard, stocks rallied, and gold and silver got some legs higher.

Today was more a 'technical event' than anything else. In other words, it had all the looks of a setup designed to skin the buy side.

This is what the financiers do when the real economy is lagging badly, and they have little incentive to make productive, long term commercial and industrial loans.

Their preferred methods of making fat profits are centered on collecting more consumer fees and finagling financial assets up and down in a series of bubbles.

Until the banking system is reformed, there will be no sustainable recovery.

We are still in the first one hundred days of Trump's presidency, so I am trying to restrain making any strong forecasts based on his performance. But it does seem like an administration with a split personality, saying one thing and setting up to do other things.

And if I had any hopes for the outcome, it is fading rapidly.  If and when failure comes, the blame game and paranoia is going to get almost unbelievable.

Speaking of inept leadership, in a recent poll the Democratic establishment (party leaders) were rated LOWER than Trump, Pence, and the mainstream media. They were roughly on par with the GOP.

But on the brighter side, they did poll slightly higher than Hillary herself, and the Congress. You may look at it here.

I mention this simply because one might think that the fruits of this epic failure in leadership in general is going to coalesce around the next collapse of the financial asset bubble.  And if so, it could get rather messy.

Rutte is projected to beat the far right Wilders in the Dutch elections.  We'll see the results tonight.

Let's see if gold and silver can extend their gains.  I suspect that with some back and forth action that they may do so.

As for stocks, the Cafe is becoming watchful for another short term bearish entry point.  This will not sustain and cohere around the policies, both fiscal and monetary, that the philosopher-kings are providing for us.   Not unless the trickle down starts trickling down a little harder in terms of real wage increases.  Too many families are living hand to mouth, paycheck to paycheck.

Have a pleasant evening.