05 June 2018

Stocks and Precous Metals Charts - Clueless


“Pride gets no pleasure out of having something, only out of having more of it than the next man... It is the comparison that makes you proud: the pleasure of being above the rest...A proud man is always looking down on things and people; and, of course, as long as you are looking down, you cannot see something that is above you.”

C.S. Lewis, Mere Christianity


“There's a reason narcissists don't learn from mistakes and that's because they never get past the first step which is admitting that they made one. It's always an assistant's fault, an adviser's fault, a lawyer's fault. Ask them to account for a mistake any other way and they'll say, 'what mistake?'

Narcissism falls along the axis of what psychologists call personality disorders, one of a group that includes antisocial, dependent, histrionic, avoidant and borderline personalities. But by most measures, narcissism is one of the worst, if only because the narcissists themselves are so clueless."

Jeffrey Kluger, The Narcissist Next Door


“All men make mistakes, but a good man yields when he knows his course is wrong, and repairs the evil.  The only enduring crime is pride.”

Sophocles, Antigone


"Pride goes before destruction, and arrogance before a fall."

Proverbs 16:18

Stocks moved sluggishly higher today led by the usual suspects in tech.

Gold and silver were largely unchanged as was the US dollar.

It is estimated that cash-rich US corporations, the recent beneficiaries of tax cuts, will be spending $2.5 Trillion on stock buybacks to inflate share prices to inflate stock option bonuses, dividends, and quite often anti-competitive merger and acquisition activity.

Half the American public is part of the 'working poor' who live paycheck to paycheck, unable to surmount any emergency costing more than a thousand dollars, without significant distress.

Are we not exceptional?  Are you not entertained?

Need little, want less, love more.  For whosoever abides in love abides in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant evening.




04 June 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Apple and Amazon and Microsoft, Oh My!


"You can hate the misleading by the Main Stream Media as I sometimes do, but you should also be far more wary of anything our federal govt presents as 'accurate' measures of the economy's performance. Dig deeper and you will be disappointed when illusion is dispelled by reality.

The stock market is doing better, but I don't believe the US economy is doing better since the elections. You rely on MSM economic data, flawed, massaged government data, but disposable incomes for majority of Americans not up, and the cost of fuel, rent, healthcare are rising faster than incomes."

Harald Malmgren


"When a man takes an oath, Meg, he's holding his own self in his own hands.  Like water.   And if he opens his fingers then— he needn't hope to find himself again."

Robert Bolt, A Man For All Seasons

Stocks powered higher today, based on the same non-reasons for which they were higher on Friday.

Amazon, Apple and Microsoft all reached new all time highs.

While the cash Nasdaq may have reached a new all time high, the NDX futures did not quite make it, although the setup for a Blow Off Top III seems likely. It is just a matter of time now. And that goes for a number of things as well.

One thing that is not going to fly is the notion of Trump being the first President to pardon himself from crimes, and further, that the President is immune from the law because he heads the Justice Department.  Why he or his lawyers would even assert such a notion in a public tweet is mind-boggling.

A President needs to have more gravitas in what he says than a spokesperson who is playing the cats paw for the media.  When one has that kind of power at their disposal, even their seemingly casual comments take on a great deal of amplification and weight.  Most seasoned managers of large enterprises will learn this at some point or another, and learn to speak more carefully within their own organizations, and especially to the media and customers and other external stakeholders.

But perhaps more importantly, this is part of the growing crisis created by the notion of 'the imperial presidency' that has been developing for many years before now.  It is the 'unitary' framing of the Presidency.   Because he is the titular head of the Justice Department, he has the power to determine what is just.   And because he is the commander-in-chief of the military, he has the latitude to go to war without the consent of Congress.

Well there seems to be a lot of bully boy talk and verbal bravado going around today.  Read the comments section of almost any internet site if you can bear it.   Our measure is now largely weighted by 'power' rather than any moral compunction, much less manners.  Manners are for weaklings.  And people are making beasts of themselves to avoid the need to confront reality by thinking.

And some are wallowing in it.  Some otherwise intelligent but seemingly sociopathic people even make a living for themselves out of it, the professional shock schlock, fear and outrage purveyors of the right and the left.
"And because of the increase in lawlessness, the love of most will grow cold."
This is the 'hysteria' that I had in my forecast about ten years ago. Although there is always a fringe element, this broader effect that I call hysteria is attributable to a loss of 'groundings' and anchors in the things that truly matter, and a sense of uncontrolled change producing a general exhaustion.

People are tossed adrift, vulnerable to manipulation by demagogues of their own emotions.  It takes a certain kind of moral grounding in first things and commitment to higher priorities, courage perhaps, and a comfort in one's own skin, not to join in.  Certainly there is no purely expedient or rationale reason for virtue in this climate, our modern worldly elites and pampered princelings being who they are, and whom they serve.
Margaret Roper: Haven't you done as much as God can reasonably want?
Thomas More: Well, finally— it isn't a matter of reason.  Finally, it's a matter of love.
Gold and silver were pretty much flat along with the US Dollar. I am fairly confident that, barring unforeseen circumstances, that they will be much higher in price within the next few years. I am just not willing to predict any remarkable rallies, because too often these short term 'calls' turn into a cheap way of trying to make a name for oneself.  I will wait for the charts to tell us when and if a breakout occurs.

Need little, want less, love more.  For whosoever abides in love abides in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant evening.










01 June 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Excelsior


"The greatest want of the world is the want of men — men who will not be bought or sold; men who in their inmost souls are true and honest; men who do not fear to call sin by its right name; men whose conscience is as true to duty as the needle to the pole; men who will stand for the right though the heavens fall."

Ellen G. White


"I have tired of hearing the argument from my friends about how we could not expect anything better from various folks given the perverse incentives.  I cannot accept that.  I know of several people who have failed to take advantage of their good government jobs when they moved to the private sector. They have done reasonably well, but they have not enriched themselves at the expense of everyone else. I know of even more who have prostituted themselves. The institutions may provide the opportunity, but it is the person who acts on it."

HBK


"And because of the increase in wickedness, the love of most will grow cold.  But those who endure to the end will be saved  The gospel of the kingdom of God will be proclaimed throughout the world, as a testimony to all nations.  And then the end will come."

Matthew 24:11-14


“Be not deceived, Wormwood, our cause is never more in jeopardy than when a human, no longer desiring but still intending to do our Enemy's [God's] will, looks round upon a universe in which every trace of Him seems to have vanished, and asks why he has been forsaken, and still obeys.”

C. S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters

The Jobs Report came in Better-Than-Expected this morning. Trumpolini twittered enthusiastically about it an hour before its release, although he did not disclose any specific numbers.

The markets were in rally mode led by tech.

We may be building to a Blow off Top III.
RECORD 95,689,000 Americans ARE NOT IN THE LABOR FORCE: That is how the US official unemployment number can be so low. If we count age-eligible workers who stopped looking for work and no longer in Labor Dept jobs data base unemployment near 10%. AND of those counted as employed, large fraction unwillingly part-time. I have been a longtime critic of all BLS and BEA unreliable & misleading data. 2017+Q1 2018 show higher per capita income, but median essentially no gain. Reason: higher pay for supervisors & professionals, but not 90% underclass.

Many of us kept pointing out the fact unemployment was around 15% during the 0bama regime and the media conspicuously ignored it. NOW you bring it up, conspicuously ignoring the fact it is STILL better than during the 0bama regime. I was saying the same thing not only about entire Obama years employment data but long before then. Each new WH staff discovers labor mkt data can be shaped to give any POTUS à good report card. Even Fed uses that BLS number, aware it is misleading.

Dr. Harald Malmgren
Gold was lower in an almost cliche manner. Silver was a bit lower as well.

This was a week heavy with economic news. Next week will be a bit more normal.

There are quite a few significant risk factors that were tossed aside today.  But they are still very much there, merely hidden by the willful mispricing of risks, and the misrepresentations of them.

Be wary of those who set themselves as the paragons of the law, and adorn themselves with its details, applying them with harsh judgments and even harsher words.

They may outwardly gleam with righteousness, and scrupulous knowledge of the scriptures and precepts of religion, but inside they are empty, and lacking in love.  And this is how you will know them, and the emptiness of their words— there is little love in them.

Need little, want less, love more.   For whosoever abides in love abides in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant weekend.





31 May 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Mindful of His Mercy


"I proclaim the power of God,
You do marvels for your servants;
Though you scatter the proud-hearted
And destroy the might of princes.

To the hungry you give food,
send the rich away empty.
In your mercy you are mindful
of the people you have chosen.

In your love you now fulfill
What you promised to your people.
I will praise you, Lord, my saviour,
Everlasting is your mercy."

Canticle of Mary

Stocks were flat to lower today ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls Report tomorrow.

The Trump Administration placed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

And as these entities are answering with tariffs of their own in kind, then the markets have suddenly become aware of the deterioration of the international trade status quo.

Problems and injuries with 'autonomous driving' continue to be reported.   I might suggest that until something is done to significantly upgrade the crazy and deteriorating patchwork of roads in the US, that fully autonomous driving is a potential benefit without substance, and likely to be an expensive failure.

And until something is done to root out the institutionalized corruption and purposeful policy errors in the economy, that there will be no sustainable recovery.  It will exist only in wishful thinking and frauds.

Gold, silver, and the Dollar were largely unchanged.

The economic data this morning showed that personal spending is expanding at 0.6% while personal income is only growing at 0.3%. It will be tough to make that up in volume, especially with most of the income growth continuing to flow almost exclusively to the top one percent.

Luke Gromen had an interesting observation about US corporate profits. I include it in the first chart below.

Tomorrow is the Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Even in the midst of these unknowns, God has once again impressed upon this unworthy and foolish servant the tender mercies and compassionate judgement of His economy, founded and enduring in joy.  Thanking Him always, for giving what we need, rather than what we may desire.

The tomb is empty, and death is overthrown, and we are the heirs to eternal life.

Need little, want less, love more.

Have a pleasant evening.