"I may adjust my outlook if the September SP 500 futures do not hold at 1518 which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Right now we are at 1553 which is about a 38.2% retracement from the highly controlled, almost straight line rally that began at the beginning of the year."Here is what the futures market looks like now in the chart below. This market is trading on the technicals.
Technicals is sometimes a euphemism for calculated insider manipulation, as in a 'wash and rinse.' You convince the small investor to get in despite their fears at some higher price, and then one pulls the rug out from under them since the entire rally has been manufactured, and buy the same paper back on the cheap, thereby skinning them once again.
Some of this is herd instinct with the smaller traders, but the big dogs at the Banks and funds are setting the tone in this trade with all the passion of a McCormick reaper.
This is the norm for deregulated or under-regulated markets, a far cry from the 'efficient markets theory' which is a canard. This was standard operating procedure in the 1920's before reforms were introduced.
If you do not believe this happens, if you do not believe that traders signal each other of their intentions, if you do not know that the big trading desks watch the structure of the market as in who is holding what and then act on it, if you do not understand that the financial sector is being recapitalized by looting the real economy, then you may be either a shill for the house, witting or not, or one of the suckers at the table.
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”We may have more downside to the 50% retracement, and it could be more IF something real happens. That means something real, something fundamental, and not a manufactured event off some mild Fed jawboning.
But in my opinion everything that has occurred since Bernanke's non-statement last week has been the second act in this opera buffo known as the US financial markets.