Long Term Gold Chart with Retracements

Our friend Lenny sent the patrons of the café a long term gold chart that is quite interesting  We have certainly been through the ups and downs of these markets together,

It shows the strong support at 1180, and the longer term trend line that works on a logarithmic chart.

I asked Len to include the retracement levels, because as I recalled there had been a prior big retracement earlier in this bull market, from 1030 to 681 that shook quite a few people out.

I was wondering how this current price decline compared.

Here is the chart.  We can draw lines on charts all day.  It is the action in the market, the push of supply against the pull of demand, that will set the true marks.  But these days it seems we can only count on price discovery in the intermediate term.

SP 500 Futures Intraday - You Can't Follow the Opera Without a Libretto

This is from my post earlier today at 11:17 AM.

"I may adjust my outlook if the September SP 500 futures do not hold at 1518 which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Right now we are at 1553 which is about a 38.2% retracement from the highly controlled, almost straight line rally that began at the beginning of the year."

Here is what the futures market looks like now in the chart below.   This market is trading on the technicals. 

Technicals is sometimes a euphemism for calculated insider manipulation, as in a 'wash and rinse.' You convince the small investor to get in despite their fears at some higher price, and then one pulls the rug out from under them since the entire rally has been manufactured, and buy the same paper back on the cheap, thereby skinning them once again.

Some of this is herd instinct with the smaller traders, but the big dogs at the Banks and funds are setting the tone in this trade with all the passion of a McCormick reaper.

This is the norm for deregulated or under-regulated markets, a far cry from the 'efficient markets theory' which is a canard. This was standard operating procedure in the 1920's before reforms were introduced.

If you do not believe this happens, if you do not believe that traders signal each other of their intentions, if you do not know that the big trading desks watch the structure of the market as in who is holding what and then act on it,  if you do not understand that the financial sector is being recapitalized by looting the real economy,  then you may be either a shill for the house, witting or not, or one of the suckers at the table.

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

Upton Sinclair

We may have more downside to the 50% retracement, and it could be more IF something real happens.  That means something real, something fundamental, and not a manufactured event off some mild Fed jawboning. 

But in my opinion everything that has occurred since Bernanke's non-statement last week has been the second act in this opera buffo known as the US financial markets. 

Gold, Silver, and Dollar Daily Charts with Long Term Trends and Fibonacci Retracements

Here is some general knowledge on Fibonacci Retracements

The placement of the pattern on the chart is given to some subjectivity. I prefer to do it according to the patterns I am attempting to analyze. Obvoiusly there are other ways of doing it.

This is by way of saying that these are my own calculations. There are others.

The Anglo-American banking cartel will resist change with increasing determination, and at times bitter opposition.

On Deck for January 2010: 1060 or 1160 in the SP 500?

Here is a slightly different view of the SP 500 daily chart, showing potential retracement levels if it breaks down.

Try not to get in front of the move. This market is 70% program trading again.

Bonne Heureuse Année mes amis


SP 500 March Futures with Fibonacci Retracements (if there is a serious correction)



Longer Term View of the SP 500



And Then There Is Tech..



VIX: Back to Complacency
As a dog returns to its vomit, so a fool repeats his folly.

For last year's words belong to last year's language
And next year's words await another voice.
And to make an end is to make a beginning.

T.S. Eliot, Little Gidding

The banks must be restrained, the financial system reformed, and balance restored to the economy before there can be any sustained recovery.

Crash 0f 2007 and Retracement From the Top

The US Equity Market Decline from the October 2007 Top on a Percentage Basis with Fibonacci Retracements.



The SP 500 Decline from the October 2007 Top Deflated by Gold in $US, with Fibonacci Retracements from the Point of Secondary Breakdown.