Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Dog That Did Not Bark

 

"Satan’s monomaniac concern with himself and his supposed rights and wrongs is a necessity of the Satanic predicament.  Certainly, he has no choice.  He has chosen to have no choice.  He has wished to ‘be himself,’ and to be in himself and for himself, and his wish has been granted.  To admire Satan, then, is to give one’s vote not only for a world of misery, but also for a world of lies and propaganda, of wishful thinking, of incessant autobiography."

C. S. Lewis


"These are suitable feelings towards this attractive but deceitful world.  What have we to do with its gifts and honours, who, having been already baptized into the world to come, are no longer citizens of this?  Why should we be anxious for a long life, or wealth, or credit, or comfort, who know that the next world will be every thing which our hearts can wish, and that not in appearance only, but truly and everlastingly?  Why should we rest in this world, when it is the token and promise of another?   Why should we be content with its surface, instead of appropriating what is stored beneath it?

To those who live by faith, every thing they see speaks of that future world; the very glories of nature, the sun, moon, and stars, and the richness and the beauty of the earth, are as types and figures witnessing and teaching the invisible things of God.  All that we see is destined one day to burst forth into a heavenly bloom, and to be transfigured into immortal glory.  Heaven at present is out of sight, but in due time, as snow melts and discovers what it lay upon, so will this visible creation fade away before those greater splendours which are behind it, and on which at present it depends.  In that day shadows will retire, and the substance show itself."

John Henry Newman 

"The Lord is my light and my salvation –
     whom shall I fear?
The Lord is the refuge of my life –
     of whom shall I be afraid?

I believe still that I will see the goodness of the Lord
     in the land of the living!
Wait for the Lord;
    be strong, and let your heart take courage;
Yes, wait upon the Lord."

Psalm 27

Stocks came in with another overnight attempt at rallying higher.

And once again it faded away during the daylight trading, and stocks were lower.

The Dollar rallied back to 99 and the VIX was higher.

So it was clearly 'risk off' most likely about concerns with the Ukraine, although there is some influence from the Fed meeting and likely 25 bp rate increase this week.

What was curious is that gold and silver both diverged significantly from their risk off partner assets.

Maybe it was in sympathy with commodities in general, and maybe it was something else.

I did see the miners taking it on the chin especially, although there was a significant easing up on the downward pressure in the late afternoon.

I have marked the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the chart for gold.   You may take note of it. 

This is where the price closed today, after flirting with it previously.

Let's remember what all is occurring this week, including the FOMC meeting Wednesday and a stock option expiration on Friday.

I have pretty much stopped watching the news, and even bubblevision.

I think that all is not as it seems, in a number of areas, where that which cannot be sustained has been extended again and again by lies and various deceptions.

“Crime, once exposed, has no refuge but in audacity.” 

Tacitus

Nominations are being entertained for the position(s) of designated scapegoat.

Have a pleasant evening.

Long Term Gold Chart with Retracements

Our friend Lenny sent the patrons of the café a long term gold chart that is quite interesting  We have certainly been through the ups and downs of these markets together,

It shows the strong support at 1180, and the longer term trend line that works on a logarithmic chart.

I asked Len to include the retracement levels, because as I recalled there had been a prior big retracement earlier in this bull market, from 1030 to 681 that shook quite a few people out.

I was wondering how this current price decline compared.

Here is the chart.  We can draw lines on charts all day.  It is the action in the market, the push of supply against the pull of demand, that will set the true marks.  But these days it seems we can only count on price discovery in the intermediate term.

SP 500 Futures Intraday - You Can't Follow the Opera Without a Libretto

This is from my post earlier today at 11:17 AM.

"I may adjust my outlook if the September SP 500 futures do not hold at 1518 which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Right now we are at 1553 which is about a 38.2% retracement from the highly controlled, almost straight line rally that began at the beginning of the year."

Here is what the futures market looks like now in the chart below.   This market is trading on the technicals. 

Technicals is sometimes a euphemism for calculated insider manipulation, as in a 'wash and rinse.' You convince the small investor to get in despite their fears at some higher price, and then one pulls the rug out from under them since the entire rally has been manufactured, and buy the same paper back on the cheap, thereby skinning them once again.

Some of this is herd instinct with the smaller traders, but the big dogs at the Banks and funds are setting the tone in this trade with all the passion of a McCormick reaper.

This is the norm for deregulated or under-regulated markets, a far cry from the 'efficient markets theory' which is a canard. This was standard operating procedure in the 1920's before reforms were introduced.

If you do not believe this happens, if you do not believe that traders signal each other of their intentions, if you do not know that the big trading desks watch the structure of the market as in who is holding what and then act on it,  if you do not understand that the financial sector is being recapitalized by looting the real economy,  then you may be either a shill for the house, witting or not, or one of the suckers at the table.

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

Upton Sinclair

We may have more downside to the 50% retracement, and it could be more IF something real happens.  That means something real, something fundamental, and not a manufactured event off some mild Fed jawboning. 

But in my opinion everything that has occurred since Bernanke's non-statement last week has been the second act in this opera buffo known as the US financial markets. 

Gold, Silver, and Dollar Daily Charts with Long Term Trends and Fibonacci Retracements

Here is some general knowledge on Fibonacci Retracements

The placement of the pattern on the chart is given to some subjectivity. I prefer to do it according to the patterns I am attempting to analyze. Obvoiusly there are other ways of doing it.

This is by way of saying that these are my own calculations. There are others.

The Anglo-American banking cartel will resist change with increasing determination, and at times bitter opposition.

On Deck for January 2010: 1060 or 1160 in the SP 500?

Here is a slightly different view of the SP 500 daily chart, showing potential retracement levels if it breaks down.

Try not to get in front of the move. This market is 70% program trading again.

Bonne Heureuse Année mes amis


SP 500 March Futures with Fibonacci Retracements (if there is a serious correction)



Longer Term View of the SP 500



And Then There Is Tech..



VIX: Back to Complacency
As a dog returns to its vomit, so a fool repeats his folly.

For last year's words belong to last year's language
And next year's words await another voice.
And to make an end is to make a beginning.

T.S. Eliot, Little Gidding

The banks must be restrained, the financial system reformed, and balance restored to the economy before there can be any sustained recovery.

Crash 0f 2007 and Retracement From the Top

The US Equity Market Decline from the October 2007 Top on a Percentage Basis with Fibonacci Retracements.



The SP 500 Decline from the October 2007 Top Deflated by Gold in $US, with Fibonacci Retracements from the Point of Secondary Breakdown.