06 September 2013

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Push Pull

The market volatility picked up today, although it may be a bit deceptive to look at because the indices finished almost even on the day.

More on this in the metals commentary.

US Unemployment figures are now not working the usual manner because of the length of this recessionary period following the financial crisis.  John Williams from Shadowstats explains this phenomenon I have discussed quite well this evening:
"...headline unemployment reporting suffers seriously-flawed definitions, and the continuing declines in headline U.3 and U.6 are bad news for the U.S. economy.  In relatively shallow and short-duration recessions, a declining unemployment rate usually reflects the good economic news of unemployed people going back to work. 

In the current circumstance—with ongoing casualties of the deepest and longest economic contraction since the Great Depression—the declining U.3 and, increasingly, the U.6 employment rates reflect the unemployed giving up looking for work, because they cannot find gainful employment.  Consider, for example, that the number of U.3 unemployed declined by 198,000 in August, but there was no offsetting gain in employment, which would have been positive economic news.  Instead, the offsets to the unemployment drop were a 115,000 decline in headline employment, and a 312,000 decline in the headline labor force."

Have a pleasant weekend.