03 February 2008

Ghost of Bubbles Past: Let's Play a Game


All things one has forgotten, scream for help in dreams.
Elias Canetti, Die Provinz der Menschen




Mr. Wall Street Says: Don't worry, the Fed's got your back!

Let's play a game.




This is the alternative to a 'crash' which is a two year grinding bear market. The classic example is 1973-74 but since we did not have good numerical data we decided to use the bear market most recent, 2000-2002, that everyone seems to overlook. The SP took a top to trough haircut of 47%!