15 February 2008

Michigan Consumer Sentiment, the SP 500, and Gold

U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Drops to 69.6 This Month
By Courtney Schlisserman

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers fell more than expected this month, reaching a 16-year low, as the labor market cooled.

The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 69.6 from 78.4 in January, the lowest since February 1992.

The first drop in employment in more than four years and higher gasoline prices are causing Americans to take a dimmer view of the economy and their financial situation. That may reduce consumer spending, which has already has slowed in recent months.



The first chart compares the SP 500 and Michigan Consumer Sentiment. There is a pronounced divergence between the stock market and Consumer Sentiment.

The second chart adds the SP 500 as deflated by gold, which shows a remarkable coincidence with the Consumer Sentiment.

One can only wonder.