Consumer Expectations Decline to the Lowest Level Since the Beginning of the 1973-4 Bear Market

US consumer confidence stumbles to 5-year low

WASHINGTON (AFP) — US consumer confidence slid to a five-year low in March while a measure of expectations for the future hit the weakest level in 35 years, a closely watched survey showed Tuesday.

The Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence declined to 64.5 points from 76.4 a month earlier. That was sharply below the level of 73.4 points expected by economists.

The survey -- often is seen as a gauge of consumer spending, which represents the bulk of US economic activity -- showed the weakest confidence since the start of the US invasion in Iraq.

Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board consumer research center, said: "Consumers' confidence in the state of the economy continues to fade and the index remains at a five-year low."

In an even more ominous sign, the survey's expectations index declined to 47.9 from 58.0.

Franco said: "Looking ahead, consumers' outlook for business conditions, the job market and their income prospects is quite pessimistic and suggests further weakening may be on the horizon. The expectations index, in fact, is now at a 35-year low, levels not seen since the (1973) oil embargo and Watergate." (as you may recall, 1973 was the beginning of a major two year bear market - Jesse)

The present situation index decreased to 89.2 from 104.0 in February, suggesting activity has weakened in recent months, according to Franco. Consumers claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 25.4 percent from 21.3 percent, while those claiming conditions were "good" declined to 15.4 percent from 19.1 percent.

Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 25.1 percent from 23.4 percent, while those indicating jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 18.8 percent from 21.5 percent."The labor market situation is at the center stage of the fall," said economist Marie-Pierre Ripert at Ixis Corporate and Investment Bank, who adds that the report is more evidence a recession has arrived.

"Even if the correlation in monthly changes in consumer confidence and private consumption is quite loose, the recent development in consumer confidence suggests a decline in consumer spending in the first and second quarters ... As a result, we don't rule out two declines in a row in GDP (gross domestic product)."

The report is based on a survey of 5,000 US households through March 18.