CFO Survey: No Economic Recovery Expected Until Late 2009
Duke University CFO Survey
Top Concerns of American CFOs
- Consumer Demand
- Credit Markets/Interest Rates
- Housing Market Fallout
- Cost of Fuel
Responses to the CFO Economic Survey
- 54% say US economy in recession
- 76% say Fed interest rates cuts have not helped their firms
- 60% will scale back expansion/cap spending/hiring
- 87% say no recovery until 2009
- 85% with foreign sales say depreciated dollar has helped exports
Confidence in the US economy appears to be hitting new lows. (and a hat tip to The ContraryInvestor.com for the charts)
But the stock market just had a fabulous rally?
Doesn't that mean that stocks are discounting an improving economy looking out six months?
No. It shows that credit bubbles deflate in fits and starts. Also, that its still relatively easy for the Street to pump the markets to smooth the way for a big IPO like VISA when the Fed is picking up the tab and decent but naive people are willing to do what the Street wants 'for the good of the country.'
Its takes a little effort to see it in this chart, but NYSE margin debt is a leading indicator of the SP 500.
If you would like to be able to watch a more convenient indicator of the direction of the SP, keep an eye on the Yen/$ cross currency.
We show the Yen chart with an SP 500 overlay every day on our charts section.
